(Part 1)
The question often arises: Why does the state of Tennessee not produce more FBS talent? Answer: It does. From 2004-2008 the state ranked 16th in number of players placed in FBS schools. That number was 149 athletes in a state of 6.2 million. So the state produces some fine athletes.
On closer inspection however, 16th means seven SEC states produce more FBS talent. Considering there are only nine SEC states, the picture is not quite as promising. Only Kentucky and Arkansas produced fewer FBS scholarships.
The Measuring Stick
The fact that the Vols compete in the premiere conference in all of college football means a different measuring tool is needed. That measuring stick is how many players from the state are put into the SEC. By those numbers, we see that Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee account for 07% of all SEC commits from SEC states.
So why the disparity? Tennessee as a state has the third largest population of the nine SEC states. It would stand to reason, there would be more talent coming out of Tennessee into the SEC than say Alabama or Mississippi.
Threefold Answer
The answer is threefold. But at the heart of the matter are population demographics. We can start by saying that the south region of the United States makes up 54% of all African Americans in the country. Below is a demographic map showing the population densities.
As we look at the map, we see that Arkansas (15.5), Kentucky (7.2), and Tennessee (16.1) have by far the lowest African American population percentages of the entire southeast U.S. In comparison, the state of Alabama and Mississippi has 26.2 % and 36% respectively. While these later two states have substantially smaller overall populations than Tennessee the chart below show them placing three times as many players into SEC schools. While that 3x number can vary a little due to cycles in state talent, it’s very close to the norm.
A Memphis Connection
It is also of interest that year in and year out the most talent in Tennessee comes out of the Memphis area. Taking a look the map again we see that it is the one area of the state with a high percentage of African Americans (the 2010 class has 14 of the top 25 rated players in the state from Memphis).
Recruiting in the Memphis area has not been a boon for the Vols. As we’ve shown in the past, there are seven SEC campuses closer to Memphis than Knoxville.
Tennessee’s new staff under Derek Dooley is certainly aware of the numbers and the hiring of Darin Hinshaw could help. As a coach for Memphis University the last three seasons, he is very familiar with the landscape there.
Recognizing Top Shelf Talent
We spoke to a well known local high school coach who has close to 40 years of coaching experience. He mentioned how the previous Tennessee staff really ‘had no interest in local talent’. They were to busy losing out on west coast players to USC and Urban Meyer. In other words, the fence building was rhetoric.
There are some excellent players in Tennessee that is for sure. Jacques Smith is going to help the Vols immensely. James Stone from Nashville Maplewood is reportedly in town for a visit. Tennessee would be very happy to get him as would anyone of us who follow the recruiting trail.
Talent in the Numbers
Another noteworthy indicator is that if you look at ESPN, Rivals, or Scouts Top 100 players for 2010, approximately 10% are Caucasian. While that doesn’t speak to individual talent or upside in potential talent, it does strongly support the argument statistically as a whole.
The ESPNU Top 150 map below bears a close resemblance to the African American demographic map show near the top of the page. These numbers are even more revealing when we look at overall population demographics. For example:
Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana’s total state populations is 39.7 million (2009 figures) which is roughly equivalent to California (37 million).The Northeast region of the country has 55.2 million compared to the 39.7 Southeast figure.
Of interest is the fact of al the SEC schools, Tennessee averages the most distance for players signed at 464 miles from Knoxville.
The Participation Ratio
Some have said that it should be viewed not from state populations but from high school participants available. The chart below validates the previous statistics. Along the way it emphasizes even more so the African American demographic.
The chart is a fluid one in that we are still a couple of weeks from the NSD. We will update the numbers following Feb 03. However, we would not expect to see any drastic changes (with the exception of let’s say Kentucky where 1 more commit would cut their ratio by one third).
What is of value in this chart is it strips away the population and gives actual ratio of high school football participant. The ratio being the number high school participants divided by the number of SEC commits. For instance, the state of Florida has bigger overall numbers (programs and participants) than states such as Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana etc. Yet these states have higher African American percentages and a better ratio ranking.
(A side note to Florida’s numbers. Two other major non-SEC universities are pulling talent from the state as well. In strictly FBS numbers, Florida leads the nation is scholarships given by FBS football programs.)
Some Last Thoughts
So clearly the African American demographic is one of the dynamics affecting Tennessee’s in-state talent base. But it’s not the only thing. As we mentioned, the answer is threefold. In addition, there are several other minor factors that contribute, but in a lesser way. Next time we will discuss the second factor affecting Tennessee in part 2 of ‘Why the State does not produce more SEC players’.
A couple of last thoughts. When presenting this information, the objective is not to address why one demographic group produces more players than another. Instead it is meant to present the data and statistics that clearly show a correlation as to why Tennessee much go outside the state.
It’s a good thing when we all can pull for anyone who wears the orange regardless of where they come from, their ethnicity, or background. It shouldn’t matter whether we have a extraterrestrial who has purple polka dot skin. If he wants to represent our University and wear the Orange and is of good character, then he’s our player on our team and we back him.
GO VOLS