HOW MANY STARS DOES IT TAKE TO

Win an SEC title? If you are wondering if aiming for a conference championship isn’t a lofty enough goal. Well, it is. . . . when that conference is the SEC. Consider the following:

In the seven BCS championship games since 2003, an SEC Champion has placed the crystal football on their mantle five times.

2003 LSU
2004 USC*
2005 TEXAS
2006 FLORIDA
2007 LSU
2008 FLORIDA
2009 ALABAMA

 
*Under NCAA investigation. Penalties which could be handed down as early as March may include stripping USC’s title.

In addition, since 2007 the SEC has averaged 5 teams in the Top 10 of Recruiting Classes (based on Rivals numbers). The recruiting numbers means a lot. It means a conference with tougher competition week in and week out.

The Chart below shows just how dominate the SEC is in recruiting, particularly factoring in that there are 120 school in the FBS offering scholarships.

As more and more fans keep a closer eye and follow the recruiting game, questions abound. At the top of the list is: “Does it really matter whether a player coming out of high school is a 5 star, 4 star, or 2 star?” The short answer is yes it does.

Now, some will use a small base of players and say ‘look, these guys are playing in the NFL and they weren’t highly rated out of high school.’

To be sure, some players develop later, some are more motivated, some overachieve and others are ‘a bust’ as the common vernacular goes. But as an example, let’s take a look at this years projected first round of the NFL draft.

The chart below is based on Mel Kiper’s projections. Kiper is a very reputable evaluator and draft analyst. Of the 32 picks in the first round we find ten five stars, eighteen four stars, and four three stars (Rivals).

So on the NFL end of things, we find high school star ratings are a fairly accurate gauge for forecasting as a group the best talent coming into the league. But it’s on the individual basis that from high school to the college game can develop quality collegiate players who can compete and excel.

A Question of Need

All college teams build their recruiting class around their needs. Obviously landing the highest rated players are a big plus. The system that is run on offense and defense greatly affects the particulars of a given player sought after. In Tennessee’s case, Coach Dooley and his staff have done a masterful job of filling out the class that was under duress and done so in a very short period of time.

Would they like to have more Offensive and Defensive linemen? Absolutely. Can they can be pulled out of thin air? Absolutely . . . not. Will there be a nice surprise along the O-line? Stay tuned.

So the staffs’ evaluation and familiarity with players that some fans may feel are not SEC caliber is something we can all have confidence in.  You may repeat in a reassuring undertone, “They know what their doing, they know what their doing” if you like.

The 2011 recruiting class which is already being developed will have Coach Dooley’s stamp all over it. That’s encouraging for several reasons. In a rushed, stop the bleeding mode of operating; he has overseen an impressive recovery. No one was projecting the Vols to have a Top 10 (perhaps closer to 5 than 10) class. If Coach Dooley and his staff can manage that feat, then imagine 2011.

Another reason to be encouraged is how this coach handles his business. I don’t think anyone is worried about accumulating secondary violations or embarrassing the university. When all is said and done, this change may very well prove to be a blessing in disguise.

The Competition

If it makes anyone feel better, TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State have assembled classes that are no where near Tennessee average recruiting classes and made trips into BCS bowls.

In the last four years, theses three schools have collectively had: No five star players, eight four stars, and have averaged 78^th, 63^rd, and 64^th respectively in their recruiting class rankings in that same time period. Obviously they do a very good job of developing players who are not highly touted.

The difference of course is that these three schools do not play in the SEC. The amount of quality and speed wanes in their depth. Over the course of a long 12 game regular season, knocking heads with Alabama, Florida, LSU, Georgia, etc that lack of depth would certainly show.

What it means then is that we have to have the blue chips players coming in. Florida and Alabama are loading up on them. With a solid core of elite players, the evaluating, selecting, and coaching up of lesser sought after players becomes critical. For Tennessee, with names like Chaney, Thompson, Baggett, and Hiestand the process is in very capable hands.

The Vols will have gone back to back top 10 recruiting classes for the first time in a long while. Yet Tennessee can have a Top 10 class and still finish 4^th to 6^th in recruiting in the SEC. Gaining ground means consistency. It’s not a sprint; it’s a bigger picture and a longer haul. That’s not what a lot of fans want to hear, however it is true. But seventeen days into his tenure, Derek Dooley has already begun to show, he’s up to the task.

And that numbers of stars question at the beginning? Well, there is no magic number of stars to win in the SEC. Rather; building continual Top 10 recruiting classes and developing quality student athletes will keep the Big Orange in the hunt for SEC titles and more.

GO VOLS