Where exactly is the Top? One point of reference would be the ’98 national championship. Certainly it has been the pinnacle for Tennessee football over the past 59 years. But there are other ways in which to measure ‘the Top”.
Using a broader swath, the mid-nineties stretch where Tennessee ran a 45-5 record would easily qualify. In that stretch, the winner of the Tennessee-Florida game decided the SEC East and a spot in the SEC Championship Game.
Top recruiting classes seem to go hand in hand with attaining the Top. (See the last 7 years of national champions)
Fast forward to the present and Tennessee finds itself on its third head coach in three seasons. As the information age has taken on warp speed proportions, recruiting finds itself a the heart of the question: Where exactly is the Top?
There can be little doubt that solid (in the SEC solid equals elite) recruiting classes are a staple for paving a programs trek to the upper echelon of the college football world. Not just a top notch class here and there either. Consistent, highly touted classes that deliver on the star-crossed promises down the road. (This is necessitated by the fact that at least two other programs are not only doing this, but are well ahead of Tennessee).
The road to be sure is going to be a rocky one. Unlike any other football conference the SEC is a divider of the wheat from the chaff. IF you can’t finish inside the top ten year in and year out, you get blown to the wind. Look back down the road only as far as the last decade for Tennessee. Recruiting classes that had a very familiar up and down pattern did not keep the level of talent on par with the elite teams of the SEC.
It is noteworthy that the Vols have had a few busts and a lot of attrition in addition to the lack of recruiting consistency. A side note along these lines. If you notice the chart above, the 2010 column is significant. It broke the trend of up one year, down the next. Tennessee now has the opportunity to put together its third consecutive top ten classes with the 2011 class.
Speaking of bust (such as highly touted recruits never achieving their projected potential) every school will have those here and there. Florida under Urban Meyer has seen several pass in and out of their program. But there is a difference. In Meyer’s six years with Florida, 71% of the players the Gators have signed are either 5 or 4 star players. With those kinds of numbers, he has survived the inevitable bust and attritions to the tune of 2 national championships in five years.
Now, we’ve talked a LOT about why Tennessee has to supplement its roster with out of state players. This year is a better than average year for in state talent. We may see the SEC placement break new levels. There are some quality ball players that Tennessee wants and needs. With that said, at this point, it still looks as though the Vols will signs fewer than 8 in state players.
If you had to guess the average percent of Tennessee players on the varsity rosters since 1960, what would you say? 15-20%? Try 40%. While those numbers include walk-ons, it is a surprising number. The 2009 Volunteer roster was made up of 32% Tennesseans (34 out of 105).
The rocky road will have fewer potholes and detours if the state of Georgia continues to pay off in football talent for the Vols. Derek Dooley and his staff are making no apologies as they go after these players in earnest. This was reflected in the Vols recent Junior Day with no less than twleve recruits from Georgia on campus in Knoxville.
It’s heartening to see the state of Tennessee with a similar number at Junior Day. The makeup of the next few rosters may more closely resemble the mid-nineties. Lots of quality Georgia state and homegrown talent to boot. It was no accident one of Jim Donnan’s first priorities was to get Rodney Garner away from Tennessee. He was the Lance Thompson of Tennessee today when it came to recruiting Georgia.
This coming full circle has a ‘natural order of things’ feel to it. Tennessee builds talented rosters with a solid base of Tennessee / Georgia talent and the Vols and Florida battle it out for the SEC East. In 15 out of the 18 SEC Championship games, Florida or Tennessee have represented the East.
Last year, there was a lot of optimism about the time frame for returning to the top. With that optimism however, there was a looming sense that the price could be steep as a win/recruit at all cost approach was in play.
The trade off is a more stable environment and ethical approach. Will it take the Vols longer to pave their way back to the top? Yes. That is a yes with qualifiers. In the high stakes game of recruiting and coaching changes. Who can say with any certainty?
So where exactly is the Top? It’s still ahead of us. It’s still going to be a bumpy ride. But the signs are falling into place. We don’t have an ETA yet. What we do have is a course. A course that’s steady and make sense. It won’t be about speeding or dangerous shortcuts.
With a lot of hard work and some breaks it will be about a rocky road that ends up on Rocky Top. Just like it ought to be.
GO VOLS