The fault line runs on a distinctive north by slightly northwest bearing. While it may not carry the infamy of a San Andreas out west or New Madrid line along the Mississippi River, its underpinnings are being monitored closely.
This seismic zone is now known as the Bulldog Fault Line. Its point of origin is 33 degrees 57’ 19” N, 83 degrees 22’ 59” W. In SEC speak that’s; Between the Hedges, Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia.
The Bulldog Fault line had until recently laid quiet. In fact, going back only to 2007, some resolved it was dormant. But certain pressures, growing tensions if you will have been building. Recent seismic snapshots have verified activity all along the line clear into east Tennessee, abruptly ending along the banks of the Tennessee River.
Seismic Activity and their Cycles
Most fault lines have definable periods of activity. These ‘movements’ make programs, from Athletic Directors and budget crunchers to boosters and the fan base in general very nervous.
Take for instance the aforementioned Bulldog Zone. In the early 90’s, tremors and rumblings reverberated as a period of instability took hold. To the north of this epicenter, a flurry of growth and stability resulted. To understand the forces at work leading up to and during that time requires a look at the fault lines history.
At the epicenter, Athens, three eras mark the modern age of the BFL. The first was a period from 1964-1988, the second 1989-2000 and the current 2001 – 201?.The charts below show the winning percentages for each year from 1964-2009. Those numbers mark the ‘activity’ for each and their relative synergy with each other.
The tensions along the BFL have become more intense since 1992. That year the SEC brought in South Carolina and Arkansas and made two divisions. The East Division wielded a ‘Big Three’ and a major shift was on. Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee would vie for the Top. With Florida overall strength since 1992, The Vols and Bulldogs have rarely been on equal footing at he same time.
The charts above shows the period from 1993-2001 (circled in black on Tennessee’s and Orange on Georgia’s) were particularly polarizing. While Tennessee did not have large number of players from the state of Georgia, they did have impactful ones. Names like Cosey Coleman, Deon Grant, and Jamal Lewis. Likewise as Georgia’s fortune’s stabilized in the early to mid 2000’s, big tremors resonated in Knoxville.
The “Richt”er Scale
The pressure for Mark Richt to ‘relieve’ defensive coordinator Willie Martinez kept building until the end of the 2009 season. . He probably waited a year too late. Rodney Garner, a force to be reckoned with for his recruiting prowess, particularly in Georgia was over looked once again. The dynamics in Athens program are less than peachy at this point.
Measuring the impact points on the Richter scale is a complicated endeavor. On this ‘RIcht’er Scale an 8-5 would follow the dreaded back to back season record pattern. The last time Richt faced that scenario, he produced an upsurge. Prior to that, it signaled two coaching changes at Georgia.
The concern with Richt is not bringing in good in-state talent (12 of the 15 All-Americans Georgia has had under Richt have hailed from Georgia). It’s developing that talent and producing SEC championship game appearances.
A Tectonic Shift
This ‘hard-shifting’ is a natural necessity. The pressures must be released on one end or the other. As long as the pressure weakens both plates (the Tennessee and Georgia sides) the Alabama and Florida’s of the world become stronger, ever more stable.
To win the war with Florida, Tennessee must win the recruiting battles in Georgia. Whoever is on top gets the top players. Florida rarely goes into Georgia. The state is not needed as a base for building their rosters. While other SEC schools delve into the rich red clay that is GHSA football talent, Tennessee needs to make it an extension of its border.
It should be noted that this ‘shift’ found the 2009 Vols with the most Georgia talent on the roster (13) in the last 50 years. Only 1973 (13) has equaled that number. Since the realignment in 1992, Tennessee has averaged six (6) players from Georgia on the roster. Once again, however, it will be the coaching staffs’ ability to bring in top players from Georgia who fit Tennessee’s needs.
Lance Thompson’s force in the state is immeasurable, particularly the Atlanta area. The addition of Chuck Smith as a recruiting presence in Georgia should pay nice dividends.
Uncertainty, always Uncertainty. . aka as The Big One
When dealing with football in the SEC, the potential for a huge quake is always out there, looming. More times than not monies release the pressure and a powerful, program shaking quake is diverted.
What kind of resulting shift could send shock waves deep enough to set off a series of events that could affect the BFL in the near term? One scenario would go something like this:
Georgia is unimpressive thru the 2010 season underachieving yet again. Important lose to rival Florida is trumped by another lose to Tennessee.
Tennessee continues to cut into the heart of Georgia for top rated players. Derek Dooley post a modest, yet impressive 7-5 first campaign and places second by virtue of the head to head win over the Bulldogs.
The hot seat for Richt gets warmer and the pressure builds. His overall record (90-27 overall, 7-2 in bowls) and recruiting classes have been good. But while he has 2 SEC championships under his belt at Georgia, they both came in the first half of his nine season tenure in Athens.
For Tennessee the pressure is released by stability in the coaching staff. They cannot afford another short tenure from their head coach. For Georgia, clearly it is producing a result that wins them an SEC championship game.
The “Big One’ for both school would see Georgia continuing to slide as Tennessee gives chase to the Gators. The Vols success over the next two seasons convinces Georgia to attempt to lure Dooley to the Dawgs. With a renowned name in Georgia circles, a thorn in Georgia’s side for recruiting the states top players, and the lack of a exclusion clause, stranger things have happened. It might take Georgia’s President Michael Adams exiting, it might not.
While it seems highly unlikely, college football has reached the point to where loyalties are shown, not talked about. Tennessee fans have only to look back two months ago. Predicting when and where the next shift is going to quake a programs foundation is not an exact science. In the meantime, let’s hope AD Mike Hamilton has taken out the appropriate policy to cover it.
GO VOLS