After tonight’s victory over the Georgia Bulldogs, there is hope. Many Volunteer fans now have more hope for 2016, Butch’s future, and the program’s future. However, 2015 is still in play, and this blog entry will detail how it can happen (regardless of how improbable it may be). While the journey will take some major help, it’s not as far-fetched as some would believe.
What Tennessee Has to Do
The losses to Florida and Arkansas have made it quite the steep uphill battle to win the SEC East. As of today, Tennessee most likely needs to win out to have a chance to win the division, which includes an away victory at Alabama in two weeks. If Tennessee wins that rivalry game, they have to take care of business against the remaining SEC schedule: Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. Tennessee will be favored in each of those four games, but it needs to be said that Kentucky is improving, Missouri can pull an upset, South Carolina still has talent, and Vanderbilt’s defense keeps them in games. The truth is, though, Tennessee should win all four regardless of the Alabama outcome.
So, why can Tennessee beat Alabama? Here are a few reasons:
Alabama is coming off a 3-game stretch of playing Georgia, Arkansas, and Texas A&M before playing Tennessee. They have a bye week after our game. There isn’t a better schedule recipe for Tennessee.
Tennessee is coming off a bye. Under Butch Jones, Tennessee is 5-2 with more than one week to prepare for an opponent, and 6-1 against the spread in the same games. Alabama coming off a rough 3-game run, plus our extra week makes this great timing.
It’s a rivalry game. Rivalry games tend to produce odd results.
Alabama and defending mobile quarterbacks. Over the last few seasons, it seems Alabama’s vaunted defense has struggled most when facing competent dual threat quarterbacks. Even Josh Dobbs had great success against Alabama last season when he entered the game.
Confidence. The win against Georgia today could be a huge emotional lift for a team that needed confidence.
If Tennessee beats Alabama, the road to winning the East is more promising than we ever could have thought.
Georgia?
With a hypothetical 6-2 Tennessee at season’s end, Georgia would only be able to win the East with a fluky three+ team tie at the top of the East.
Missouri?
Currently 1-1 in SEC play and losing to Florida as I type this. We actually need Missouri to beat Florida to help us. However, if Missouri loses to Florida and Tennessee, they’re out in the SEC East. They also have games at Georgia, versus Mississippi State, and at Arkansas remaining.
South Carolina?
Out.
Vanderbilt?
Two SEC losses already. They would lose to Tennessee in this hypothetical, so, OUT.
Kentucky?
Sneaky. They are sitting at 2-1 in conference. If they lose to Tennessee, they’d be hopeful for a three+ team tie, but still would be highly unlikely to win. They host Auburn next week, play at Mississippi State, and at Georgia. They are long shots at best.
Florida?
The obvious huge, huge hurdle. Sitting at 3-0 and winning 14-3 at Missouri in the 2nd quarter at the time of this writing. If Florida loses two games in conference, Tennessee would need a fluky three+ team tie and win multiple tie-breakers. If Florida manages to lose 3 conference games, Tennessee wins the division if they win out.
Who does Florida have left?
Missouri (winning 14-3)
@ LSU (LSU will be favored by 7+)
vs. Georgia (while Florida will be favored, this is a toss-up)
vs. Vanderbilt (Florida win)
@ South Carolina (Florida win, but does the OBC get a retirement win?)
The hope has to be that Missouri makes a comeback, and Florida loses the next two. If Florida holds onto victorytonight against Missouri, the Vols need upsets galore to win the East.
The point? Tennessee is still in the running for the East in mid-October. It’s fun having something to play for when the leaves change colors.
