If its clear that we wont land a big fish coach this year (like Gruden, Kelly, Patterson, Petersen)...should we keep Butch another year?
Look at the roster. Consider whose eligibility will be up this year and next. Then consider that a new coach may struggle with his first recruiting class due to only having 2 months or so to secure it.
UT cannot afford to keep Jones another year. Recruits and commits are watching. Some do not want him to go but even they realize another year probably won't save him. Some are committed to UT and not Jones... they're probably MORE likely to de-commit if he's kept knowing it means nothing but poor coaching and turmoil.
I would rather not hire another up and comer (risky), so we should only hire a big fish that we know can make a National Championship run. We would be stuck for another 3-6 years if we make with the wrong hire. If we keep Butch (crazy I know), we could try again next year on a big fish coaching hire.
When Vandy found Franklin, he was an up and comer. Smart has never been a HC and has UGA on the verge of SECE dominance.
All of the names you mentioned above got their break... Kelly was a small school OC before Bellotti hired him and never a HC before being promoted at Oregon.
The key is to go DEEEEEEP in your evaluation. Anything below the surface of Jones' resume would have revealed that his "championship" seasons at Cincy came against really, really weak competition.
There are only a few grand slam hires that will almost guarantee a race to the National Championship. Flame away.
No flames. None of the names you mentioned guarantee anything. Peterson is probably the closest. He's now had significant success at two programs. The problem with him is that UW can wage a salary war and win.
Gruden has never recruited. No doubt there would be great coaching. No doubt there would be an attraction for recruits to a Super Bowl champion coach. But he still has to evaluate, pursue, and sign the right players. There's no guarantee he can do that.
Patterson has had success at one school. There's no guarantee he could succeed anywhere else given time... and at 57 he doesn't have a lot of time. He's had 2 losing seasons in the last 5. UT needs a better coach than that. If you hire him... don't pretend his record didn't clearly represent who he is.
Kelly had success following Bellotti who built the program. His ambition led him to the NFL where he was fired twice. The novelty of his offense took 2 years to wear off. The various spread schemes are no longer a mystery in CFB or the NFL. He might be great... but I suspect he's the most risky hire UT could make when you balance the salary and buyout it would take to get him with the possibility that he cannot recreate the magic. This is where UT will hopefully learn the RichRod lesson and avoid Kelly.