Season 1 “Realistic” Expectations

#26
#26
Too early to make an education guess. It depends on how many players are left after the dust settles. Also got to consider the period of adjustment required when a new system is being installed. That takes a little while - maybe longer if covid limits spring practice. We may not see much improvement in the W/L column the first year.
 
#30
#30
I think we are looking at 4-8 to 7-5, so I’ll be optimistic and say 6-6. Three of our OOC games and Vandy should be gimmies regardless of the situation. That leaves toss ups with, and in order of most likely Win to least, SCar, Pitt, KY, and Mizzou. Certainly we can win two of those four. SCar has been trash and has a new coach, and Pitt isn’t exactly a contender even in the weak ACC...
 
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#35
#35
Put me down for at least 6 wins. Still gonna take some time to really close the huge gap between us, Alabama, Florida and Georgia.
 
#37
#37
3-5 wins is a reasonable expectation. We have 23 players in The Portal and at least 2 of our best signees want out of their NLI's.
 
#39
#39
5 wins and being competitive in each loss. There will have to be some seriously creative play calling on both sides of the ball given we won't have a ton of blue chip talent on campus. Heupel gets a free pass this year most likely and even if he goes 2-10 most will forgive him. Some will scream about "we got what we deserved by hiring him" without looking at the circumstances, just the win column.

I would honestly be OK with 2-3 wins if the team played their butts off every week and there was noticeable improvement in what we see on the field each week.

I want, and expect, to see a change in attitude. Dump the defeatist mentality that has plagued this team for a decade. If Heupel can't do that, he will not last long either. The schedule looks like 5 wins should be attainable though.
 
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#40
#40
Vols2015 said:
So, now that we have a coach, what do you think our realistic expectations should be for year 1? Being a 500 win percentage team?
Click to expand...

The cupboard isn't bare by any means, Gitmo is gone, our new coach has a history and reputation of developing QB's, and our schedule is more manageable. Several teams on our schedule are in transition as well. I'll go with 8-4 and a chance to be better.
 
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#41
#41
RhodesVol said:
If he's a good coach, and he does a good job, then I think he could win between 5-7 games. Honestly, that should be the expectation. Our roster is depleting, but it is still better than TN Tech, Bowling Green, South Alabama, Pitt, and Vanderbilt. Then we have legitimate toss up games with South Carolina, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Missouri.

The bottom of the SEC is still bad. This past year's team, with even competent coaching, would have beaten Kentucky, Arkansas, and Auburn. We have had losses and defections, but who did we really lose that we cannot replace?

Eric Gray's talent will be difficult to replace, but I don't know that his production will be. He didn't have such a dominant season last year that our other runningbacks cannot replicate it.

Hank T - if he leaves - would be a big blow. He was the best defensive player we had last season, and we really could use him in an already thin LB corps.

Bryce is a tough loss. The guy has been a leader for several years now, and losing him stings.

Crouch? At no point has he been so good that he can't be replaced.

Wanya? He yo-yo'd with Jahmir all season because his play has been lackluster.

Jahmir? The coaches played him because Wanya continued to screw up, but it never seemed like they wanted to play Jahmir.

Keyshawn Lawrence could be a great player, but we don't know yet. He's gone, and we just have to make due in the secondary. I attribute him leaving pretty heavily to Jerm's refusal to play young players last year.

We could have used Deondre Johnson, I'll readily admit that.

I just think that there is likely more talent on this team than we are realizing, because they played so uninspired all of last season.
Click to expand...
Keyshawn Laurence is gone. Wanya is gone.
 
#43
#43
MWAVolfan said:
There's absolutely no way this team will have a winning record. They may get one SEC win. I'm not being negative I think thats the reality. I think year 2 will be the same because of poor recruiting that will happen and the NCAA sanctions.

I think the administration will view year 3 as if it was year 1. Next year and the year after wont even count against him at all.

Tennessee will beat TTU and South Alabama and MAYBE Vanderbilt.
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I would agree in normal years, but outside of the Big Three, there is a bunch of mediocrity on our schedule. Would still be an accomplishment to win 6 games, but it is doable with a few breaks.
 
#45
#45
6 wins (7 if there's some serious gelling/cohesion taking place) and a good showing at a bowl game would be reasonable. The two main albatrosses (Pruitt and Guarantano) are gone, so the likelihood of losing games we shouldn't lose would seemingly decrease as well.
 
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#46
#46
Judgement after roster is complete which will be after Spring practices as to who enters Portal of all teams. In CHRIST Alone
 
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#47
#47
6-6 is realistic. You have the three gimme games, Kentucky, Vandy and South Carolina. Maybe 7-5 if he beats Pittsburgh.
 
#48
#48
I think it's too early to set a bar for wins versus losses. Can do that once we see the whole coaching staff and roster settle out.

Until then, there are a few Year One realistic expectations I think we could all agree on:
  • Family -- Josh used the terms "connection"...belonging, brotherhood, love, sacrifice, commitment, accountability. I think it's hugely important we see that develop. And not just a handful of the coaches or a dozen of the lads...all of them. I'll be looking for evidence of this, starting in the Spring. If it's there, I think we're off to a good start.
  • Recruitment -- Josh is behind the 8-ball right now. I mean, way behind. We've bled talent in the past few weeks. Signing day rapidly approaches. Heupel doesn't even have a defensive coordinator yet to help quickly plug big holes. So he's juggling a whole lot in a very short time frame. I don't think he (or any one else) could get it all done. But let's see how much he's able to do.
  • Stability -- Sooner or later, we're going to hear about some penalties from the recruiting scandal. How does that hit the team? How do they react? Both coaches and players? I think it's not unrealistic for us to expect Josh to, by then, have enough glue holding the lads together that they take it well. Every challenge is also an opportunity; do they react as if it's more the former, or the latter?
  • Perseverance -- Once we start playing games, do all 105 players and 11 coaches continue to fight and scrap for a W through the entire 60 minutes? Do they never, ever give up? Whether we win 5 or 6 or 8 in 2021, I think the EFFORT to win them all is a reasonable expectation of a program that's building back toward championships.
  • Sportsmanship -- This one might not be popular with some in these forums, but we want our players to be good people, good men as well as good athletes. Does the climate of the program encourage them to treat our opponents and the folks in the stands with respect, particularly after the game and throughout the week? Character is key.
  • Play Calling -- Do the coaches make wily, competitive, insightful decisions throughout each game? Do they continue to put the lads in position to win or keep it close? Are we running between the tackles on 4th and 12, or passing the ball on 1st and goal from the 1? Going for a field goal when we're down by 12 in the 4th quarter? It is reasonable to expect our coaching staff, not necessarily to always get it right, but generally not to do anything blatantly dumb.
So we can circle back to expectations for wins and losses after the staff and roster get filled out, and we see how they're melding in the Spring game. Until then, I think expectations like these are reasonable.

Go Vols!
 
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#49
#49
You want realistic season 1 expectations, well from reading these replies you cant handle the truth or realistic expectations for year 1
1) Enough scholarship players on the team after transfers out, people just leaving the program, players ineligible due to improper benefits etc to go 2 deep plus special teams.
2} Covid vaccines for enough players tat UT SEC and nationally to have a reasonable 2021 season without protocols in place.
3) The remaining student athletes academically eligible
4) winning 2 SEC games, and 3 out of four out of conference games.
5) NCAA accepting our self imposed penalties without piling on more
6 Former players not doing tell all exposes for a little payback of perceived grievance and 5 minutes of fame
 
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