Why Are We Underdogs?

#52
#52
I agree with OP actually. Yes, we’re very bad, but we also lost by a Hail Mary at Florida last year. Florida went 4-7 last year, we went 4-8. They’re 2-1, we’re 2-1. And our loss was to the number 12 team in the country at a neautral site, not Kentucky at home. Not saying we should be favored, but not sure why anyone thinks Florida is any good either.
 
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#53
#53
If the Vols win I expect some “fans” wont be impressed and say it was only because Florida is down this year
 
#54
#54
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
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It isn’t that baffling, both of our teams have struggled on both sides of the ball. As a die hard fan though I will tell myself anything to convince myself we will win. What I’m telling myself now is our stable of running backs will have a huge game, even with our O-line trouble. I also think our linebackers will play the pivotal role on defense tomorrow. Either way I do believe it is evenly matched once again. Players and coaches
 
#56
#56
MurphyVol said:
Because that is the number Vegas has determined that will get equal money placed on both teams
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You sir are 100% correct. Most folks have no clue why the lines change and are set the way they are.

example: The dallas cowboys are ALWAYS heavily wagered on. Therefor the line is not a true line. Its a money line because the fan base of Dallas always bets heavily on the cowboys, so when they should be a 3 point favorite the money line will have them at -1 or a pick to get even money on both sides of the line.
 
#57
#57
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
Click to expand...

Don’t know if you are the only one baffled by this....but you should be the only one baffled by this.
 
#58
#58
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
Click to expand...
Maybe you are right but we are 29-44-1 at home against the spread since 2008. Only KY is slightly worse in the SEC at 28-44. If you must bet the game think about the under.
 
#59
#59
We were a terrible team last year, we haven't shown much this year, and our o-line has played like one of the worse in the SEC.
 
#60
#60
hUTch2002 said:
Maybe you are right but we are 29-44-1 at home against the spread since 2008. Only KY is slightly worse in the SEC at 28-44. If you must bet the game think about the under.
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We are even worse as a home underdog since 2008 at 6-14.
 
#61
#61
GOVOLS 1 said:
If the Vols win I expect some “fans” wont be impressed and say it was only because Florida is down this year
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I dont. We are basically on equal footing. History proves wr rarely beat uf even when wr are slightly better. A win is a win.
 
#62
#62
BeardedVol said:
How so? Larger spreads are less often covered, but even in not covering the spread, Vegas still predicted the winning team. The smaller the spread, the more likely that a team will cover, but the lower the probability. The betting line is sitting at -4.5 right now, meaning Vegas gives Florida a ~63% chance to win this game. It's not a coin toss, but that's not a good bet to take either if you want to maximize your winnings.
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Larger spreads aren't necessarily less often covered. The point of a point spread is to spot one of the two teams a certain number of points so that there is even money on both sides of the bet. A 2 point favorite is just as likely to cover the spread as a 50 point favorite. Over long periods of time, teams should be around .500 against the spread. Sort the table at the link below by closing spread (far left column) and look at the spread amounts that have large sample sizes (3, 5, 7 points). Those teams cover about 49-51% of the time. Just how the bookies like it. Even on the larger numbers. A 27 point favorite, for example, covers exactly 50% of the time (40-40-1) since 2003.

College Football Football Odds & Line History on TeamRankings.com
 
#63
#63
Raleigh-Vol said:
It opened at 8 points and dropped to 4.5 so a lot of people were taking us and the points. I think for the general public it is just a mind set that they will beat us and they don't really break it down. But I was baffled by it too.
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This was my point. I don't think many are actually breaking down the two teams, comparing them head-to-head, considering other such as we are playing at home, at night, on a night where we are honoring the 98 championship team,
 
#64
#64
VFL49er said:
I agree with OP actually. Yes, we’re very bad, but we also lost by a Hail Mary at Florida last year. Florida went 4-7 last year, we went 4-8. They’re 2-1, we’re 2-1. And our loss was to the number 12 team in the country at a neautral site, not Kentucky at home. Not saying we should be favored, but not sure why anyone thinks Florida is any good either.
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IMO, Everyone on here just likes to be negative these days..quick to criticize, complain, and get their panties wadded up..In reality I think we fare well..I think our defense matches well. I think it is unfair to weigh the WV game too much on that group. First year coach, first gane, against an experienced and highly talented offense led by a Heisman candidate...many times we were inches away, but the opposing receivers made a nice play. If our D does their job against Frank's, we just need JG to outperform him and our RB to compliment and protect the ball.
 
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#65
#65
05_never_again said:
Larger spreads aren't necessarily less often covered. The point of a point spread is to spot one of the two teams a certain number of points so that there is even money on both sides of the bet. A 2 point favorite is just as likely to cover the spread as a 50 point favorite. Over long periods of time, teams should be around .500 against the spread. Sort the table at the link below by closing spread (far left column) and look at the spread amounts that have large sample sizes (3, 5, 7 points). Those teams cover about 49-51% of the time. Just how the bookies like it. Even on the larger numbers. A 27 point favorite, for example, covers exactly 50% of the time (40-40-1) since 2003.

College Football Football Odds & Line History on TeamRankings.com
Click to expand...

The post you quoted isn't talking about the percentage of covering or not covering the spread (Which should be about 50%), but rather the probability of the favorite winning the game outright when looking at the width of the spread
 
#66
#66
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
Click to expand...


You're gonna lose money
 
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#67
#67
1. Because we've beat Florida only a handful of times since they joined the SEC
2. Even when they suck, we still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. See 2014, 2015, & 2017 for recent examples.
3. Florida has mind control over Tennessee
4. Our OL can't block a High School D-Line
5. Our D-Line gets ZERO pressure

Not saying I like it. I hate Florida with a passion. Far more than any other SEC team. But, it is what it is.
 
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#68
#68
Except for a bad record and an unproven team --with a first time head coach, a first time defensive coordinator. and a first time solo offensive coordinator -- no particular reason?
 
#69
#69
If you have $10,000 you must bet and your family’s current way of life is on the line, where do you place your money. It no longer is about fandom, simply strategic wagering.

Not to say that the answer is UF (I actually think we win the game outright) but people risking their own money are saying UF with the $ is in the line. That’s just answering you ? about why odds are where they are. Has nothing to do what Vegas thinks; that’s only the opening line. The current line is what the betters think.
 
#72
#72
While Butch was here, we had the better players most games and we won one of those. You hate to say it, but there is negative choke factor involved and of course kicking a PAT to lead by 13 with 3 minutes left - what can we say about that piece of stupidity ? Oh yeah and what about letting a receiver get behind you on the very last play of last-years fiasco . I have more but you get the idea.
 
#73
#73
njvols said:
Being emotionally invested in Vol football is draining. Besides a few times in 2015 and 2016...tired of trying to rationalize ways we're going to win before a game, only to prove that I had orange colored delusions of grandeur after the game. But, I'll keep at it...Go Vols...we've got this
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You are what the record says you are. We are and have been bad for a number of years. I just am thankful we are not in the West- we might go 3 years without winning a game . Sad but true.
 
#75
#75
BornAndRaisedVOL! said:
1. Because we've beat Florida only a handful of times since they joined the SEC
2. Even when they suck, we still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. See 2014, 2015, & 2017 for recent examples.
3. Florida has mind control over Tennessee
4. Our OL can't block a High School D-Line
5. Our D-Line gets ZERO pressure

Not saying I like it. I hate Florida with a passion. Far more than any other SEC team. But, it is what it is.
Click to expand...

1-3. Your first three points have nothing to do with THIS years team.
4. We can do different schemes to hide our deficient O-Line. Short, quick plays, chip blockers, Use Wood Anderson extensiveky in blocking, power running formation, play action pass, etc...there are strategies other than let JG be a sitting duck in the back field.
5. Frank's doesn't need pressure to suck. He already misses open receivers
 
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