Win Differential in 2022 if Hooker Returns?

#26
#26
VolPack22 said:
10 wins as a legit possibility, 8 should be the floor. Pitt is losing their QB and several seniors. Florida and LSU will be breaking in new coaches, possibly Kentucky as well if Stoops decides to leave. This may be the only season playing Florida early in the season works to our advantage, also I like the Bye Week sandwiched in between Florida and LSU. All the other games outside of Alabama and Georgia should be considered as close to automatic wins as you can get.

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Here’s how I realistically see it:
5 should be Ws (Ball State, Akron, UT Martin, Mizzou, Vandy)
3 can, and probably will, Ws (Pitt, UK [if UK loses Stoops then I’d move them to “should be Ws”], and SC [I like what Beamer is doing here but I think he needs one more year to make them competitive])
2 toss ups (UF [you made some valid points but we always seem to play our worst against Fla] and LSU)
2 “dear, sweet 8 pound Baby Jesus” games (Bama and UGA)

So realistically: we can get to 8 wins if the right guy is leading our offense.
 
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#27
#27
Vol8188 said:
Why aren’t we winning 9-10 games next year? 9 games would involve beating everyone we did this year plus 2/3 of Pitt, Florida, and LSU. That’s very doable.

I’m not sure why you’re convinced Milton will be the QB either but I do know CJH knows a lot more about QBs and development of QBs than either of us, so if he does enter the season as QB1, I’ll trust the guy who worked miracles with our offense this season. Either way your 5 win claim is dumb.
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You’re basing this on the idea that all the key components of this year’s offense who can stay do stay. Which, based on that, I even said that 8 wins is possible. But if Hooker, the biggest key component there is, does choose to leave, they I see getting to 8 wins as a struggle.

I trust JH too, but based on what I’ve seen from Milton from afar, I’m not hopeful. I’m also not convinced he will be QB1 if Hooker leaves, but I’m just basing my assumption on what’s in front of me in regards to the depth chart and it’s Milton. Nothing “dumb” there. It’s called making a logical inference based on the facts, not some wishful thinking that we all tend to do after a phenomenal year.
 
#28
#28
TeacherVol007 said:
You’re basing this on the idea that all the key components of this year’s offense who can stay do stay. Which, based on that, I even said that 8 wins is possible. But if Hooker, the biggest key component there is, does choose to leave, they I see getting to 8 wins as a struggle.

I trust JH too, but based on what I’ve seen from Milton from afar, I’m not hopeful. I’m also not convinced he will be QB1 if Hooker leaves, but I’m just basing my assumption on what’s in front of me in regards to the depth chart and it’s Milton. Nothing “dumb” there. It’s called making a logical inference based on the facts, not some wishful thinking that we all tend to do after a phenomenal year.
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By the key components of this years offense do mean a group of guys we thought couldn’t play for Carson Newman before the year started?

Seems you’re ignoring the value of the staff and the system and over valuing the players. The same group of players that no one thought was worth a crap. No one thought Hooker and Tillman were going to the NFL one day.
 
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#29
#29
Vol8188 said:
By the key components of this years offense do mean a group of guys we thought couldn’t play for Carson Newman before the year started?

Seems you’re ignoring the value of the staff and the system and over valuing the players. The same group of players that no one thought was worth a crap. No one thought Hooker and Tillman were going to the NFL one day.
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I trust this staff probably more than any staff we’ve had in the past 20 years. But I also know that if you lose the key guys you’ve been working with, specially an extremely skilled QB, it can be a struggle. I’ll admit, the 5 wins is super pessimistic, but I’m also a Vols fan, so it’s easy to be that way.

But I still think 9 or 10 wins is going to be a realistic struggle. You’re right on the fact that we will just need to beat 2/3, Pitt, UF, or LSU, to get there. But you’re also assuming UF and LSU don’t hire a competent coach. Plus, you’re assuming UK and USC don’t improve from this year, specifically USC—Beamer is doing a great job there, I’d rate him behind JH in terms of beating expectations.
 
#30
#30
TeacherVol007 said:
Which part? I’m being very rational here. Hooker gets us to a winning season. Milton does not. I love JH and everything he’s done, but we’re not winning 9 or 10 games next year. If we all have that mindset, then JH isn’t being given a fair shot.
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I would agree with you if I didn't just see them nearly win 9 games in year 1. We beat Pitt if HH starts that game and it came down to the final possession vs OM. Where gonna lose some players but we will also gain some as well, plus the returners will be even more comfortable in the system. If HH comes back we beating Ball st, Pitt, Akron, USCjr, KY, Mizzou, UT Martin, & Vandy. We add a couple impact players I'll add LSU to the list. I'll never mark UF as a W until we start consistently beating them. I will acknowledge that they will be the 1st of the big 3 that we beat.
 
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#31
#31
901 Orange said:
I would agree with you if I didn't just see them nearly win 9 games in year 1. We beat Pitt if HH starts that game and it came down to the final possession vs OM. Where gonna lose some players but we will also gain some as well, plus the returners will be even more comfortable in the system. If HH comes back we beating Ball st, Pitt, Akron, USCjr, KY, Mizzou, UT Martin, & Vandy. We add a couple impact players I'll add LSU to the list. I'll never mark UF as a W until we start consistently beating them. I will acknowledge that they will be the 1st of the big 3 that we beat.
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See I 100% agree with you because you’re essentially saying what I’ve been trying to say to that other guy: if the right people are back/replaced, 8 or 9 wins can happen (8 wins especially). But if Hooker leaves, I don’t see 9 happening and I think 8 will be a huge struggle.

Edit: the OM game still breaks my heart. If Hooker hadn’t had to step out, I believe in every atom of my being that we win. (Just had to add that)
 
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#33
#33
volinbham said:
I'll set the over/under at 1.5 wins with Hooker next year vs without him.

Place your bets - you over or under?
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If this core returns with Hooker leading offense, we should win 10 with the only two lean to likely losses to UGA and Bama.
 
#34
#34
VOLinAL said:
UCF Dillon Gabriel entered the portal too. Idk if that has been said here or not but if HH goes we will probably pick him up regardless.
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I'm not sure why the media at Tennessee started running stories about Gabriel...... In the games he played leading up to Louisville loss that knocked him out, he played awful....
 
#35
#35
JMSqb11 said:
I'm not sure why the media at Tennessee started running stories about Gabriel...... In the games he played leading up to Louisville loss that knocked him out, he played awful....
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I think it’s because JH recruited him, so they just assume he’ll look at us. But I read somewhere that there may be some bad blood between the two.
 
#36
#36
TeacherVol007 said:
I think it’s because JH recruited him, so they just assume he’ll look at us. But I read somewhere that there may be some bad blood between the two.
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yeah I get the relationship, but there is nothing that suggest Gabriel coming off a season ending injury could walk into Tennessee as transfer and run it back if Hooker leaves. I just found it odd that the TN sports media ran stories about it.
 
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#37
#37
This team is losing a lot on defense and potentially a lot of production on offense aside from Hooker. Hooker will be critical to next season but he isn't the whole story.

Just lost Evans this week and, even with all the time missed, he is still the teams leading rusher.

I think Tillman has worked himself into draft consideration.

Heupel needs to have a really high batting average in recruiting this season and hit the portal hard for there not to be a drop off next year. Especially if they lose Hooker.

Personally see 4 losses on the schedule. LSU, FL, Bama, GA.

LSU and FL may be breaking in new coaches but they aren't shopping in the bargain bins like UT did with Dooley and Jones. And they will inherently be more talented than the Vols even with a coaching change.
 
#39
#39
TeacherVol007 said:
See I 100% agree with you because you’re essentially saying what I’ve been trying to say to that other guy: if the right people are back/replaced, 8 or 9 wins can happen (8 wins especially). But if Hooker leaves, I don’t see 9 happening and I think 8 will be a huge struggle.

Edit: the OM game still breaks my heart. If Hooker hadn’t had to step out, I believe in every atom of my being that we win. (Just had to add that)
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Yea I think we are in agreement. Although I think we have to acknowledge the fact nobody saw this season coming from HH. Coming in he was just a 4star talent with really good athleticism & a non extensive throwing history. I will admit in the spring I thought it was Bailey's job to lose. I believe that says alot about our HC/OC/QBC ability to develope the position. If HH were to leave, I would have to assume that they could get Jackson ready to play especially if he is an early enrollee. I know it's alot to put on a true freshman but, again I'm trusting their coaching ability at that particular position.
 
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#40
#40
Think I will hold off on predicting until we see who gets recruited or transferred in, and how the spring game goes.
 
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