Win Total for season

How many wins in 2020 to feel like program is moving in a positive direction?

  • Total voters
    157
#27
#27
Game by game projections are pretty pointless to look at this early in the year. The cumulative win totals are more relevant, but really only directionally so. And even then there are certain to be some they get wrong. Most people who publish projection like this will acknowledge it, because the algorithm only knows what humans tell it. For instance it doesn’t know about coronavirus and what impact that might have to home field advantage. Or who has been able to practice and who hasn’t. And how limited practices are impacting teams. Or the latest on how individual players are developing. So take it for what it is.
 
#28
#28
I expect us to go at least 5-5. That just means we're beating the teams we should beat (USCe, Vandy, Ark, Missouri, Kentucky). In a normal year that gets us to hopefully 8-4 or 9-3 depending on non-conference games. If we go 6-4 this year, that means we beat somebody that should be further ahead of us.
 
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#30
#30
CFN has a good analysis of expectations for TN for 2020 under this brutal schedule:

There can’t be a step back.

Think of it this way. Had the Vols not gacked against Georgia State and BYU, it would’ve been a ten-win season – blowing off that the early losses might have propelled the team to bigger things – and that doesn’t even include the 35-13 loss to Alabama that was much, much closer than the final score, thanks to a big fumble recovery.

This time around, Florida, Alabama, at Georgia, at Auburn. The Vols have to win at least one of those, and there can’t be any other mistakes against at South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt or Missouri.

This is supposed to be when the program was expected to rise up and start to be more of a player in the SEC East under Jeremy Pruitt. Just getting to five wins – or come up with a six-win, winning season – would be good enough.
Click to expand...

College Football News Preview 2020: Tennessee Volunteers
 
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#34
#34
Devo182 said:
Lol wtf. We are expected to win ~5.5 games by Vegas. Come back to reality.
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Yea reality is we are expected to beat Vandy,UK,Ark,Mizz,And Sc....so we shouldnt lose to any of those teams if we do..that 4-6 and a BYU type loss...couple that with last years start and why wouldnt he be..thats 1 big win. Auburn 2018. And 3 bad losses...
 
#39
#39
Regardless of ESPN's analytics, we SHOULD beat South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas and Vanderbilt. It's year 3. We should beat those teams. No excuses.

We should NOT beat Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn or Florida (the only SEC schools who have out-recruited us in each of the past 3 years). Therefore, we should go 5-5. However, taking a step forward means being a little better than we should be. Otherwise, we're stagnant, not moving forward. 6-4 is moving forward.
 
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#41
#41
Illinoisvolfan2 said:
Yes. Unfortunately that is true. Just heard the ND Wake Forest game has been postponed. 14 ND players just tested positive
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Wow, I thought games would go on and not be canceled since college football rosters are large. I guess if one team has many players out then they will just cancel the game. This negates my previous opinion and post.
 
#42
#42
whodeycin85 said:
Yea reality is we are expected to beat Vandy,UK,Ark,Mizz,And Sc....so we shouldnt lose to any of those teams if we do..that 4-6 and a BYU type loss...couple that with last years start and why wouldnt he be..thats 1 big win. Auburn 2018. And 3 bad losses...
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You are conflating being a favorite to a binary win/loss outcome, which just isn't reality. If that was the case, then you'd apply the same when we are the underdogs and we will just be 5-5.

But being a 60/40 favorite vs USCjr or UK is far from a lock...just like being a 40/60 dog vs tamu or auburn is far from a certain loss.

Probabilities are more important than over/under the 50% mark. You could be 49% to win all 10 games and your most likely outcome would be 5-5, not 0-10...
 
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#43
#43
Devo182 said:
You are conflating being a favorite to a binary win/loss outcome, which just isn't reality. If that was the case, then you'd apply the same when we are the underdogs and we will just be 5-5.

But being a 60/40 favorite vs USCjr or UK is far from a lock...just like being a 40/60 dog vs tamu or auburn is far from a certain loss.

Probabilities are more important than over/under the 50% mark. You could be 49% to win all 10 games and your most likely outcome would be 5-5, not 0-10...
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That was the most long-winded post to say...its football any given saturday anything can happen..whats your point....coaches are paid by wins vs expectations...so 5 win in expected anything less makes his job less secure
 
#44
#44
whodeycin85 said:
That was the most long-winded post to say...its football any given saturday anything can happen..whats your point....coaches are paid by wins vs expectations...so 5 win in expected anything less makes his job less secure
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The point is you said, "we are expected to beat Vandy,UK,Ark,Mizz,And Sc....so we shouldnt lose to any of those teams".

This is a ridiculous black and white mindset and ignoring basic math. There's a big difference between being a small favorite and a massive favorite and how they cumulatively add up. Even small odds can add up to a probable win or loss. Being a favorite/dog is on a very wide scale...not binary.

Say we are 30/70 dogs to Aub, tamu, uf, uga, and bama...should we go 0-5 merely because we are below the 50% mark? That would be your perspective's answer, yet we should get at least 1 win over 80% of the time and 2 wins about half the time.

I mean, FPI gives us over 50% chance to beat 3 of our opponents, should that be the bar when we are only slight dogs to UK, USC, etc? Or maybe we should use cumulative win shares, regardless of what predictions we are looking at? Just maybe.
 
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#45
#45
Devo182 said:
The point is you said, "we are expected to beat Vandy,UK,Ark,Mizz,And Sc....so we shouldnt lose to any of those teams".

This is a ridiculous black and white mindset and ignoring basic math. There's a big difference between being a small favorite and a massive favorite. Even small odds can add up, as well. This sort of absolutism denies reality, which is being a favorite/dog is on a very wide scale...not binary.

Say we are 30/70 dogs to Aub, tamu, uf, uga, and bama...should we go 0-5 merely because we are below the 50% mark? That would be your perspective's answer, yet we should get at least 1 win over 80% of the time and 2 wins about half the time.
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Would you prefer favored in those games??? Or do we wanna continue to say the same thing with variables...i mean obviously no one will know until the game is played so if we are expected to win...idgaf if 51% to 49% we are expected to win...anything less would be disappointing....you dont lose and say oh we were only favored by 2,% guys it ok guys...i mean really...anything else you wanna debate by miniscule measure to feel better about your point???
 
#46
#46
whodeycin85 said:
Would you prefer favored in those games??? Or do we wanna continue to say the same thing with variables...i mean obviously no one will know until the game is played so if we are expected to win...idgaf if 51% to 49% we are expected to win...anything less would be disappointing....you dont lose and say oh we were only favored by 2,% guys it ok guys...i mean really...anything else you wanna debate by miniscule measure to feel better about your point???
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It was just a point on probabilities vs binary predictions and standards which have less value. Not wanting to argue brotha. Sorry. Gbo!
 
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#47
#47
Every week half of the SEC is going to lose. 5-3 in the SEC is about our record we should expect in a regular season next two years till we get talent level up. Adding two hard West games made 5-5 acceptable for sure but to really be excited about future I’d need 6 wins. 7 or more and Id have no doubt we are on our Way but 6 really would be a good season!
 
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#48
#48
Devo182 said:
The point is you said, "we are expected to beat Vandy,UK,Ark,Mizz,And Sc....so we shouldnt lose to any of those teams".

This is a ridiculous black and white mindset and ignoring basic math. There's a big difference between being a small favorite and a massive favorite and how they cumulatively add up. Even small odds can add up to a probable win or loss. Being a favorite/dog is on a very wide scale...not binary.

Say we are 30/70 dogs to Aub, tamu, uf, uga, and bama...should we go 0-5 merely because we are below the 50% mark? That would be your perspective's answer, yet we should get at least 1 win over 80% of the time and 2 wins about half the time.

I mean, FPI gives us over 50% chance to beat 3 of our opponents, should that be the bar when we are only slight dogs to UK, USC, etc? Or maybe we should use cumulative win shares, regardless of what predictions we are looking at? Just maybe.
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The neverJG crowd doesn't believe in the basic football stats that have been calculated since the game began, no way they are gonna believe in anything that uses this kind of voodoo hoodoo math. :)
 
#49
#49
golfballs said:
Game by game projections are pretty pointless to look at this early in the year. The cumulative win totals are more relevant, but really only directionally so. And even then there are certain to be some they get wrong. Most people who publish projection like this will acknowledge it, because the algorithm only knows what humans tell it. For instance it doesn’t know about coronavirus and what impact that might have to home field advantage. Or who has been able to practice and who hasn’t. And how limited practices are impacting teams. Or the latest on how individual players are developing. So take it for what it is.
Click to expand...
If we were to win our 1st 3 games those numbers will change a bunch. If I gambled on football I would think the OVER 5.5 wins Vegas had predicted would be good, I think we're undervalued there.
 
#50
#50
JOEY'S ALL VOL !!! said:
Anything less than seven wins will be disappointing to me personally, doesn't mean the program is necessarily in the crapper, but still disappointing.
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I strongly agree because the Alabama and At Georgia are the most challenging games , At Auburn a challenging road game that they could win because the Auburn team is not in the same league as Alabama, Georgia, etc.
I could still see the Volunteers losing on the road to the Auburn Tigers.

They most likely lose to the Georgia Bulldogs because it’s a road game and because the UG Bulldogs are a great team, and the Crimson Tide is a challenging game that is heavy lifting except they could win this game they aren’t expected to win because with a high amount of returning starters they’ll be motivated to do better than keeping the game watchable aka the moral victory for most of the game, they’ll be motivated to finish in the 4th to win the game.


The other 7 games are winnable games or coin flip games including the Florida game in Rocky Top because the Volunteers have been a great team after the bye week, a a high amount of returning players, and the game is in Rocky Top.
That’s why 7 wins is achievable, and 8 wins is reachable which would most likely happen if they defeated Auburn Tigers and 7 other games and lost to the heavyweights Georgia Bulldogs a road game and at home to the Juggernaut the Crimson Tide.

8-2
The 2 losses I’m saying are at Georgia, and Alabama.

The second best that is reachable is 7-3 that the Volunteers lose to Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia.
 
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