As some of you know, I'm in the oil and gas industry (work for a private E&P), and we had one of the big banks in today. I'll post some of their thoughts (random) just for some that may be interested and any that want to chime in with counter-points or other. And this is long, so those who don't like long posts, skip it, don't tell me it's long.
U.S. economy is better than expected. World economy is better than expected. China, while controlling growth, is still growing at a ridiculous rate. The US can stand $100 crude without a big pinch.
Foreign investment should give you an idea of how US natural gas is viewed...highly. It's viewed as a very low-risk investment at the moment and other countries are willing to wait for the recovery. In this same regard, without the 4th warmest winter since 1905, things would be way tighter. Also, the export of LNG is imminent...for all you Chenier people out there. Their view was that it's not about policy, it's about the fact that China has something we want (rare earths) and we have something they want (natural gas). Eventually they have to trade. Also, China's demand for natural gas is going to be huge by 2015 and while they likely have more shale gas than we do, getting it out in enough time to meet demand is a huge issue. Also, it was their view that China will eventually be a good and natural partner the way Canada is now. And I'm not talking about energy partner, I'm talking about economic and otherwise.
Crude is currently where it is (in the US) because of the middle distillate demand worldwide. Because of an increase in US supply and decreasing US demand, crude should be dropping, but because other parts of the world were cold this winter, product demand remains high enough to keep crude where it is. The fundamentals are real and "speculation" and Iranian sensitivity are not behind the current prices. US gasoline is VERY cheap compared to world gasoline. Only the subsidized countries have cheaper gasoline, and those countries will not be able to sustain those subsidies.
In general, they were big on the fact that the US has been, and always will be, able to adjust to the world economies and stay one step ahead. This wasn't arrogance IMO, but they backed it up by many examples of American ingenuity. They basically said all those touting that Asia would rule this century were heavily discounting the US and the proven track record.
They also spoke of agriculture and other items, but I'm not quite as familiar with this side of things, so I don't necessarily want to relay something I can't relate to.
