138th Kentucky Derby

#26
#26
shelbyvillevol said:
Good job. You did better than most I'm sure. You definitely did better than me.

What do you think of I'll Have Another's chances at Pimlico in 2 weeks?
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I'd go with doubtful at best. I expect him to at least Show, but I don't expect a win. I think the distance was perfect for his style. I think he'll be just short in the Preakness and, if he runs in the Belmont, will burn out before the end, again Showing.
 
#27
#27
Well, if the Derby was the same distance as the Preakness, Bodemeister would have been the winner, so I definitely think you could be right.

Had Bodemeister won, he would have been an overwhelming favorite in the Preakness. I'm assuming he probably will be anyways. (assuming he runs, of course)

The 1-1/2 mile distance of the Belmont is the most grueling part of the Triple Crown. The fact you have some fresh horses that don't run first 2 legs makes it almost impossible now. I'm beginning to get the feeling we may never see another Triple Crown winner.
 
#28
#28
shelbyvillevol said:
Well, if the Derby was the same distance as the Preakness, Bodemeister would have been the winner, so I definitely think you could be right.

Had Bodemeister won, he would have been an overwhelming favorite in the Preakness. I'm assuming he probably will be anyways. (assuming he runs, of course)

The 1-1/2 mile distance of the Belmont is the most grueling part of the Triple Crown. The fact you have some fresh horses that don't run first 2 legs makes it almost impossible now. I'm beginning to get the feeling we may never see another Triple Crown winner.
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The way I see it, if Saturday was the Preakness, Bodemeister wins. If Saturday was the Belmont, Dullahan wins.
If he runs, I'll take Rags in the Preakness and someone who ran the Derby but not the Preakness in the Belmont.

My guess is that Take Charge Indy will be the Belmont winner.
 
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#30
#30
I love the derby. I haven't missed one in years. But I wish they'd limit the field because 20 horses is just to many. It causes the better horses to get blocked in etc.
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#31
#31
shelbyvillevol said:
Well, if the Derby was the same distance as the Preakness, Bodemeister would have been the winner, so I definitely think you could be right.

Had Bodemeister won, he would have been an overwhelming favorite in the Preakness. I'm assuming he probably will be anyways. (assuming he runs, of course)

The 1-1/2 mile distance of the Belmont is the most grueling part of the Triple Crown. The fact you have some fresh horses that don't run first 2 legs makes it almost impossible now. I'm beginning to get the feeling we may never see another Triple Crown winner.
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I think we will. It's pretty interesting if you look at the history if the Triple Crown. We go like 30 to 40 year droughts then have a multiple in a short time.
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#32
#32
VolBeef88 said:
I think we will. It's pretty interesting if you look at the history if the Triple Crown. We go like 30 to 40 year droughts then have a multiple in a short time.
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I hope you're right. It won't be this year, though.

Smarty Jones is my favorite horse of all time, and I remember how devastated I was when he faded down the stretch at the Belmont. :cray:
 
#33
#33
shelbyvillevol said:
I hope you're right. It won't be this year, though.

Smarty Jones is my favorite horse of all time, and I remember how devastated I was when he faded down the stretch at the Belmont. :cray:
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He is a very good horse. I actually went to see him at the Arkansas derby and was very impressed. I followed him all the way to the Belmont. He had a flare about him that drew fans in. He didn't get the best ride in NY and that cost us a TC winner.
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#34
#34
The horse I'm the most disappointed with in probably the last 20 to 30 years was Curlin. Curlin was easily the class of his foal crop. However everything that could've gone wrong with him did.
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#35
#35
VolBeef88 said:
The horse I'm the most disappointed with in probably the last 20 to 30 years was Curlin. Curlin was easily the class of his foal crop. However everything that could've gone wrong with him did.
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Definitely. I would put Fusaichi Pegasus in that category, also.

You can chalk up quite a few Triple Crown shortfalls to jockey error. Jeremy Rose had a terrible ride on Afleet Alex in the Derby, then Alex went on to win the Preakness and Belmont. (Alex is also one of my all-time favorites)

But in most cases, the horses are spent when they hit the turn at Belmont. Happened to Big Brown, who was dominant. War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Silver Charm also come to mind. (I'm only 26, so I can't go back too far)
 
#36
#36
shelbyvillevol said:
Definitely. I would put Fusaichi Pegasus in that category, also.

You can chalk up quite a few Triple Crown shortfalls to jockey error. Jeremy Rose had a terrible ride on Afleet Alex in the Derby, then Alex went on to win the Preakness and Belmont. (Alex is also one of my all-time favorites)

But in most cases, the horses are spent when they hit the turn at Belmont. Happened to Big Brown, who was dominant. War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Silver Charm also come to mind. (I'm only 26, so I can't go back too far)
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Oh hell yes they're spent. That's why the TC is one of the greatest events in all of sports. It's supposed to be hard and that's what makes it special.

Afleet Alex is a perfect example of 20 horses being to many for the Derby. Curlin also. He stmbled coming out the gate, almost fell down and still showed. In a normal field he would have won the race. But 20 horses is just crazy.
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#37
#37
VolBeef88 said:
Oh hell yes they're spent. That's why the TC is one of the greatest events in all of sports. It's supposed to be hard and that's what makes it special.

Afleet Alex is a perfect example of 20 horses being to many for the Derby. Curlin also. He stmbled coming out the gate, almost fell down and still showed. In a normal field he would have won the race. But 20 horses is just crazy.
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And you know they are not going to cut the field number down because there's too much $$$ to be made. 20 horses breaking from the gate at once, it's amazing they don't have more collisions.
 
#38
#38
shelbyvillevol said:
And you know they are not going to cut the field number down because there's too much $$$ to be made. 20 horses breaking from the gate at once, it's amazing they don't have more collisions.
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It is amazing that's for sure. The real problem however is it clogs up and prevents a clean race way to often.

But it's not just money. Entry fees isn't where Churchill makes $. The real $ comes from wagering. I've been told thery added the 2nd gate to add excitement. It's always one of the biggest fields every year. To me it cheapens it. Every year there's a half dozen horses that don't belong.
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#39
#39
VolBeef88 said:
It is amazing that's for sure. The real problem however is it clogs up and prevents a clean race way to often.

But it's not just money. Entry fees isn't where Churchill makes $. The real $ comes from wagering. I've been told thery added the 2nd gate to add excitement. It's always one of the biggest fields every year. To me it cheapens it. Every year there's a half dozen horses that don't belong.
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The exclusivity of it is what made it great. Used to, just getting to run in the Derby was a huge deal. It still is now, but to a lesser extent.
 
#40
#40
Preakness is saturday. (I didn't think it merited a new thread) Bodemeister is the ML favorite at 8-5 (just as I predicted), with I'll Have Another at 5-2. I expect to see Daddy Nose Best get some action at 12-1
 
#41
#41
I just watched the replay of Afleet Alex's win at Pimlico on NBCSN. It gave me goose bumps! I forgot how dramatic it was.
 
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