my 247sports crystal ball has been on the fighting irish since feb. 2 and i don't plan on changing it prior to his decision. There has been a lot of hype around the word "surprise" and how austin and those in his camp are telling myself and other writers that when he announces his commitment, it will shock a lot of people. In the end, i expect him to commit to notre dame.
Sure, picking duke, tennessee or even miami at this point would definitely be a surprise. Austin named notre dame his leader in april when he visited south bend for the spring game. He said exactly the same when he was at the opening finals in july. Unless he wasn't being honest during the spring and summer, something will have had to drastically change for him to have a new leader and for another school to pull ahead of the irish come commitment time.
Duke looks to have been the strongest threat throughout his recruitment. We're told the combination of athletics and academics in durham has impressed him. The staff is also treating him like the top target on the board, regardless of position.
With miami, i'm still told the hurricanes aren't pushing for him, so a commitment to the hurricanes would shock even the miami staff at this point.
Tennessee likely would have needed to get him back on campus to have a shot. Maybe he picks the volunteers, but those close to that program don't see it happening.