2009 Cup Season Preview

#1
DownNDirty

DownNDirty

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#1
Thought I'd go ahead and throw this out there to see if anyone wants to talk about next year. I get burnt out on Cup by the end of the year but I'm already ready for racing again. After about 3 weeks I'm like, ok, lets race.

I'll do team by team breakdown and give MY opinions on them after this initial post as well.

First, some general stats for now. Most of this is from Jayski.

I guess initally the most interesting thing is developing right now with news and rumors about points for next year. The top 35 could be largely irrelevant quite often next year but I guarantee it will still be a big deal at least for Daytona. Its still the biggest race and no one wants to miss it so the guaranteed spots for the first 5 races is still big. Saying that, with the demise of the 01 team and the 15 team it appears from what I've read on Jayski that the next two teams in line will move up and be guaranteed spots for next year. That would put Marcos Ambrose and the #10 GEM car - I guess that's still Sorenson - in the top 35 next year.

I find this very interesting in that it appears at least that NASCAR didn't allow points selling. They just moved up the next two teams in line instead. I had heard that Stewart was going to try and buy the points from one of the cars so he'd be guaranteed in the fields next year for the first 5 races too without having to fall back on his Champ provisional. Also, it was widely speculated that Paul Menard would take his points with him to Yates which doesn't appear to be happening now.

What does 09 hold for the teams/drivers in NASCAR? With the information we have now I'll put all my predictions below....
 
#2
#2
00 Reutimann - I think he was showing "flashes" of breakout at the end of this last year. Losing Pemberton may or may not hurt him for this coming year. It looks like MWR is committed to running him the full season even though they currently don't have full sponsorship. I fully expect Reutimann to win a race, maybe two next year. He should be a top 15 points driver and may be on the bubble for the Chase.

07 Casey Mears - Dang, Mears in the Jack Daniels ride? He doesn't seem to be the spokesperson JD would be shooting for IMO. I like Mears but don't know how much talent he really has. We'll get a gauge next year but I don't forsee him being a contender at least next year. He'll be hovering around 20th in points and should have some solid runs though.

1 Truex - Floyd Ganassi has another marquee driver to compliment Montoya. I expect this team to be about where it was last year. The move could help or hurt - I don't really know what to expect yet.

2 Kurt Busch - Whew, good ol' KB. This team makes me scratch my head - I just think Penske is behind the 8 ball with the COT. If NASCAR lets them Busch and Hornish may swap points again for the start of next year. However, Penske might want to reconsider that especially since Stewart might need a PCP himself. If Busch doesn't improve fairly significantly next year I expect him to split from Penske at the end of next season. He's been quite unhappy it seems.

5 Mark Martin - Comes back to run full time for next year. He's just so dang consistent I can't see him not being a top 6-8 driver next year going into the Chase. I'd say he'll even get a win at Hendrick. I never used to care for the man that much but since he left Roush its like he's a different person altogether. I hope he goes out well and I do expect him to run very good next year in this car. He may be 4th in the pecking order but his experience and smoothness with that equipment will still get him far.

6 David Ragan - UPS comes on board for the Georgia kid and I forsee him having a good year next year. I think he's slowly working his way up the rung at Roush and think he'll do what Biffle did this year next year at Roush. I fully expect him to get his first win next season.

7 Robby Gordon - One of my favorites will continue to struggle I think. Its not for lack of talent but its lack of some good people working for him and his constant manufacturer hopping that has killed him over the past couple of years. The Gilette thing from last year set him back as well - I honestly don't feel he got good enough stuff from the deal. Plus, look at how all of those GEM cars ran - it wasn't very pretty anyway. I think he'll do a little better this year with Penske engines for the full year but probably still just hovering around 30th in the standings but still a big factor on the road courses.

8 Aric Almirola - Will this team survive without a sponsor? I think Almirola is a decent enough driver but too many questions surround this team. He should be a 30th place car for the most part. He'll be the 4th cog in the machine at DEI/Ganassi.

9 Kasey Kahne - Should do better than last year but that isn't saying much. We'll see if GEM turns things around some and I expect him to be better. Although, Allmendinger after getting in that 10 GEM car toward the end of last season made Kahne and Sadler both look pedestrian most races. I think KK has the talent but not sure about his equipment. Feel he won't be in the Chase again next season.

10 Reed Sorenson - He was supposed to be the "next big thing" in the sport but has never shown it. It can probably be blamed at least partially on the Ganassi equipment which has even made Montoya look normal. We'll see if Reed has what it takes next year but the team he is stepping "up" to isn't much better than the one he left. I feel he'll get that car in the top 35 for sure but don't hold much hope for this car running good consistently.

11 Denny Hamlin - will Gibbs focus almost all of their energy on Busch and getting Lagano situated in the 20 car? If so Hamlin could get lost in the shuffle just a bit. He has proven to be a solid driver but a perpetual whiner and if things don't go good for him early I could see the wheels falling off of this team. I'd say he'll wind up in the Chase, barely.

12 David Stremme - Gets, IMO, a well deserved second chance at Cup. Penske is still a question mark as far as the cars but I can see him being a solid top 20 driver next season if things go well for the team. He can also compete for a win or two.

14 Tony Stewart - As much as I like Smoke I have to believe this will be a rocky year for him. He'll have some ups and many downs. I just can't imagine him making the Chase but I can see him having some solid runs and "possibly" a win or two. Especially considering how the Haas cars ran on plate tracks he could be a sleeper for the 500.

16 Greg Biffle - I think he'll settle into the 4th team position at Roush unless Kenseth really falls apart. We know he has 3M as a sponsor for some races but don't have a clue how many. This could be a car that runs unsponsored some next season. I just think the "Biff" has a down year next year.

17 Matt Kenseth - he just signed that new deal with Roush and I had half expected him to bolt after next year. I still think a scenario could play out if he doesn't run well next season he could look elsewhere to revitalize his career like Burton did at RCR. Saying all of that he's a smooth customer and should be solidly in the top 12 next season.

18 Kyle Busch - I don't think he'll tear it up next year like he did this year but he will be more consistent. He'll win his fair share and do better in the Chase. Early on I would have to consider him one of the 3 or 4 you'd look for to win the Cup next season.

19 Elliott Sadler - Sadler is signed through 2010 and its a good thing he's a media darling. I really like Elliott but don't know if he's a "top tier" driver in the Cup series. I think he'll land around 17th or so in points next year and might actually get a win if the stars line up for him.

20 Joey Logano - This is a huge question mark. I think Joey will do "ok" in this car after being hotshotted into Cup. He won't set the world on fire and won't make the Chase but he won't be an embarassment to himself either. There will be bumps and many of them next year but he'll have some bright spots too.
 
#3
#3
21 Wood Brothers - You know, this "may" actually halfway work out for them by just running primarily the 1.5 mile races and cutting back. They can't do much worse. I don't think they'll win any of them but I expect them to run better than they did this year when they show up.

22 - will this team even survive? I don't have high hopes of BDR fielding this car next year so I'll leave it at that.

24 Jeff Gordon - He'll win at least a couple next year. I think he'll be a serious contender for the Cup too. Too good of a team/driver not to be strong in 09.

26 Jamie McMurray - Wonder what J-Mac will do next year? He really came on towards the end of 08. Getting his old buddy Wingo back in the Roush equipment should keep him rolling. J-Mac will win a couple next year and make the Chase solidly.

28 Travis Kvapil - Got to give Yates credit for being able to get enough sponsorship to field these cars and run fair. Kvapil should do about what he done this year next year - maybe slightly better. Not earth shattering but not a backmarker either.

29 Kevin Harvick - Could this be the year he contends for the Cup? I think he's on the verge of getting that run at the Cup. I feel he'll be a top 10 car weekly next year and that will translate into him being the most solid driver at RCR in 09.

31 Jeff Burton - will continue to do what he does best - run consistent. He'll be right back in the Chase again and lull people to sleep while doing it. He's not flashy but the "Mayor of the Garage" can still get the job done.

33 Clint Bowyer - This is a wild card. The new 4th RCR team should be competitive with Bowyer behind the wheel. They'll want to run good for the new sponsor for sure. Him and Shane Wilson have had great success in the Nationwide Series and I fully expect them to not miss a beat in Cup. He'll be a Chaser.

38 David Gilliland - wonder if Yates will still field this car for DG now that Menard is also on board? I think they give it a go to start the season out but this team will be a question mark all year IMO. I'd say it will survive with the current climate in the sport but I'm not sure Gilliland will survive with it.

39 Ryan Newman - He'll mirror what Smoke does in the team car. I think Ryan will run well at times and bad at times with this new team. Won't make the Chase but should be around the top 15-18.

41 - (Driver unknown) - I'm going to assume that Labonte rumor comes true and he lands in this car. Having him, Montoya, and Truex on the same team will be an interesting combination of personalities. Bobby should help them land a sponsor and SHOULD do better than he has done at Petty the past several years. Top 25 car if Labonte is in it.

42 Juan Montoya - I think JPM will benefit from this merger. The Chevy horsepower will help and this team will improve over next year. I think he's one of the most talented guys in the garage and will be in the Chase in 09.

43 (Driver unknown) - I will assume here as well that Petty goes away and this becomes a 4th GEM car. AJ Allmendinger HAS to be the choice as the driver too. I think they would like to have him in the 10 but Sorenson had already signed the contract next year. Allmendinger, if in this car, will OUTSHINE Sonrenson in the team car and will have a few solid runs and 4-5 top 10s.

44 - I think this team with McCumbie goes away with the acquisition from GEM.

47 Marcos Ambrose - The Tazmanian devil goes full time next year and now looks to have a top 35 spot for the first 5 races. I actually expect him to run better than most people would think. This could be a solid top 25 team next year and he, like Robby Gordon, should be competitive on the road courses and challenge for wins.
 
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#4
#4
48 Jimmie Johnson - How can you bet against a 3 time defending champ? Because it's never been done 4x in a row and Vegas odds just HAVE to be against him next year. He'll be solid - he'll be right there but it will be very hard to do it again next season. I don't want to bet against him but I have to go with the odds that he can't do it again. He'll be "right there" though.

55 Michael Waltrip - Another of my favorites. I think he'll do a little better than this year and run competitively at times. He could "shock the world" at Daytona in the 500. I think that MW is probably still one of the best plate racers and can do more than most at these tracks. He'll improve next year overall but probably hover around 27th-30th in points.

77 Sam Hornish - I hope for him he does better next year or he'll be right back in the IRL. I really thought he'd come on last year like a gangbuster and win a race or two but he was a huge disappointment. The Penske cars, again, were't great but he ran horridly. If he made the race you could be sure he'd be in the wall at least once to twice a race this past year. Maybe this experience will help him but I expect it to be another rough ride for him next year unless Penske's program really picks up overall. When a former champion runs like a dog often its not all the driver.

82 Scott Speed - Will do alright but I still think Red Bull made a mistake by getting rid of Allmendinger. Speed could become a star in the sport though and RBR is taking the chance on his appeal and ability. He'll be another guy hovering around the 30s in points IMO.

83 Brian Vickers - He overachieved somewhat this year I think for the most part. He crashed back to earth toward the end of the season. Vickers is a good driver and solid hand that will keep this car fairly competitive again next year and I can see him possibly being in the hunt to make the Chase if things shake out right.

88 Dale Earnhardt Jr - He's got his first year over at Hendrick and it was marginally successful IMO. He did manage to get the win and run well most of the time. I expect him to step it up a bit more next year - get 2-3 wins - and be a top 6 driver in the Chase.

96 (Driver unknown) - I'd say Schrader will get the nod but who knows if this team will survive either. It was rumored they'd align with the Wood Brothers and run Fords but I can't see that happening now. If they continue with Toyota's I think they'll stay on track to be an also ran like they are now. This is just not a great team.

98 Paul Menard - I may be in the minority but I can see Menard being a solid Cup driver. Not a Cup champion but a top 20 competitor. I would have to think Yates will give him the 38 points next year since he does have the Menards sponsorship to bring to the team. He wouldn't come without some assurance.

99 Carl Edwards - As much as it pains me to say I think he'll be the champ next year. I've never bought into his attitude but that's just me. After seeing what he done at the banquet this year it just lowered my opinion even further of him. After his speech he said he couldn't stay because of a "previous commitment" and all that was left was Johnson's presentation as Cup champion. I think it's just sour grapes from a guy I don't care for much.

But, saying all of that he seems to be the guy that can wheel these cars the best in their current configuration. He's the one I'd put odds on favorite to win the title next year. He was near perfect in the Chase this year besides his stupid move at Dega and that may have cost him the Cup. If he can be as near perfect again next year I can't see how he won't unseat JJ as Cup champ.
 
#6
#6
i think it's way too early to speculate on 09, especially with so much that still seems up in the air. i'd say expect the usual 20 or so, but i'm not ready to predict anything until i see the entry list for Daytona.
 
#8
#8
Truly I like a lot of drivers but to pin down my absolute favorites:

Robby Gordon - I've met the guy a couple of times and he's "the most" down to earth driver in the Cup garage that I know of. I was already a huge fan but meeting him at Bristol solidified that several years ago. I saw he would be signing autographs at his trailer so I stuck around to get his autograph. I'm not an autograph hound but I wanted to meet him. Anyway, I was in line with my Robby Gordon shirt for him to sign and new Robby Gordon hat on my head. He came right through the lot there and I was the only one in line to see him. Instead of running to him like a schoolgirl or shrieking I just smiled at him and nodded. He walked out of his way to come to me and say that he appreciated me being a fan and he'd sign anything I wanted him to. I don't know why he picked me to say that to but it felt good. Anyway, I finally get to the front of the line and this man and little girl were in front of me - she was about 5 or 6 years old. He had a Gordon picture for him to sign and him and the little girl were both wearing Robby's old Childress stuff - he was doing his own team by this time with Jim Bean/Fruit of the Loom. The little girl said "daddy, can we get a new Robby Gordon shirt so he can sign a new one for me." The man said, "no honey, we just don't have enough money this time. Maybe next time sweetie." The little girl looked disappointed but she said ok. Well, we were at the front of the line and Robby heard this. He said hey honey which shirt were you wanting. She pointed out this cute little pink Fruit of the Loom shirt. Robby turned around, grabbed the shirt, autographed it, and handed it to the little girl and said its on the house since you are my biggest fan. Her face lit up like I've not seen too many childrens face light up before. She was so happy and the dad got a little choked up and I did too and a couple of people behind me in line did too. He talked to her for about two minutes and its something I bet she will never forget. When they walked away I looked at Robby and said that just reinforces why you are my favorite driver. I told him that what he just done was awesome. He smiled and said ah its no big deal I just like making my fans happy.

I got to talk to him again at Dega 2 years ago briefly in the pits. I told him to keep plugging and I admired him for what he was doing and he said yeah man its hard but I still have fun. He's just a down to earth cool guy.

My other favorite is Michael Waltrip. DW was my favorite growing up and I idolized him. I guess I just inherited Mikey when he came onto the scene.

I guess my other favorites are Schrader, Boris Said, Juan Montoya, and now Marcos Ambrose. I like his personality and think he has a chance to be a good hand. I pull for others too - I like Stewart, Harvick, McMurray, Allmendinger, Labonte, Bowyer, Sadler and several others. I generally pull for the underdogs too if they have a chance to knock down a win.

The only guys in the garage I don't care for at all are Kenseth, Hamlin, Kurt Busch, and Edwards,
 
#9
#9
Stewart is my favorite driver. I started pulling for him early on when he was feuding with Gordon. I loved his fire and intensity. I loved watching McMurry when he first started driving in Cup. Everything was so eye opening for him. He was truely a kid in a candy store. I like the guys likeStewart, Harvick, Biffle,Kyle Busch, R. Gordon that don't mind telling you the truth. They might not always be right, but atleast you know honestly how they feel. At one point that was one of the foundations NASCAR was built on. Not so much anymore. I am an overoll nascar fan. Too many people focus on 1 or 2 drivers these days. There aren't as many fans of the "sport" anymore. Alot of that is NASCAR's fault. It is too political/business driven. I have had more pure enjoyment watching the Trucks here lately. They seem to be having alot of fun. There is a great mixture of "old school" and "new school" racers out there rubbing fenders.
 
#10
#10
Its really bottoming out it seems. Lets break down what they THINK will be the full time teams next year:

00 Reutimann - 18 races sponsored
07 Mears
1 Truex
2 Busch
5 Martin
6 Ragan
7 Gordon - 13 races sponsored
9 Kahne
11 Hamlin
12 Stremme
14 Stewart
16 Biffle
17 Kenseth
18 Busch
19 Allmendinger
20 Logano
24 Gordon
26 McMurray
28 Kvapil - no sponsorship announced
29 Harvick
31 Burton
33 Bowyer
38 Gilliland - no sponsorship announced
39 Newman - 18 races with Army
41 - driver? - Target back??
42 Montoya
43 Sorenson
47 Ambrose
48 Johnson
55 Waltrip
77 Hornish or Sadler
82 Speed
83 Vickers
88 Earnhardt Jr
98 Menard
99 Edwards

So, above is 36 full time teams for next season. Of those, 6 only have partial or no sponsorship for next year. That leaves 30 full time teams with full sponsorships.

Anyone here on the VN want to go in and buy a COT and do some start and parks? We could maybe make some good money next year just doing that.
 
#11
#11
What actually prompted me to post this updated list above was the rumor on Jayski today that Hall of Fame Racing was shutting down. That really don't surprise me with no sponsors anyway. Plus all of the original HOF owners are long gone already.

From last year that will eliminate all of these full time teams:

01 Regan Smith - DEI

10 becomes the 43

15 Menard - that team is gone but it breeded the new Yates team so its kind of a push. But I still wonder if Yates will run the 28 and 38 both unsponsored next year - I have a feeling Gilligan will be gone and the 38 car will dissolve

21 Wood Brothers - becomes a part time 12 race team

22 Blaney - BDR - this team looks to be gone after Davis sold it and no sponsors

43 Labonte - Petty - this team is gone for all intents and purposes. It will be the #10 GEM team with the #43 slapped on the side of it and so they can have the points

44 Reutimann - becomes the 00 again but still eliminates one of MWR's cars and he down to two technically but Ambrose might as well be a MWR car so that's a wash here

45 Petty - team dissolved for all intents and purposes

87 Furniture Row - this becomes a part time team this year

96 Hall of Fame - poof, another one bites the dust
 
#12
#12
DownNDirty said:
Its really bottoming out it seems. Lets break down what they THINK will be the full time teams next year:

00 Reutimann - 18 races sponsored
07 Mears
1 Truex
2 Busch
5 Martin
6 Ragan
7 Gordon - 13 races sponsored
9 Kahne
11 Hamlin
12 Stremme
14 Stewart
16 Biffle
17 Kenseth
18 Busch
19 Allmendinger
20 Logano
24 Gordon
26 McMurray
28 Kvapil - no sponsorship announced
29 Harvick
31 Burton
33 Bowyer
38 Gilliland - no sponsorship announced
39 Newman - 18 races with Army
41 - driver? - Target back??
42 Montoya
43 Sorenson
47 Ambrose
48 Johnson
55 Waltrip
77 Hornish or Sadler
82 Speed
83 Vickers
88 Earnhardt Jr
98 Menard
99 Edwards

So, above is 36 full time teams for next season. Of those, 6 only have partial or no sponsorship for next year. That leaves 30 full time teams with full sponsorships.

Anyone here on the VN want to go in and buy a COT and do some start and parks? We could maybe make some good money next year just doing that.
Click to expand...

Slap a VN logo on the side and we'll give it a go. I can coast around for 2 laps, if you're willing.:rock:
 
#13
#13
I think Scott Speed might surprise some people. He seems like a real natural in stock cars, and took to them better than JPM or the other open wheel guys. He won't be in the chase, but he could make some noise. Especially at the short tracks.
 
#14
#14
DownNDirty said:
Anyone here on the VN want to go in and buy a COT and do some start and parks? We could maybe make some good money next year just doing that.
Click to expand...

There are probably several thinking just that, Morgan Shephed, Brad Teague, etc. Connie Saylor did it many times back in the 80s.
 
#15
#15
I've tried to talk my father in law who runs a couple of ARCA races a year to get a Nationwide or Truck for next year. If it wasn't for the type of work he does and having to travel so much I think he would. As bad as it seems in Cup as it stands right now there are less than 20 full time Truck teams signed up for next season and less than 30 Nationwide teams.
 
#16
#16
rbroyles said:
There are probably several thinking just that, Morgan Shephed, Brad Teague, etc. Connie Saylor did it many times back in the 80s.
Click to expand...

I think Derrick Cope is gonna try it this year. I would rather have a smaller field than see a guy compete all weekend on the first set of tires he put on the car that Friday and park it.
 
#17
#17
If they didn't use diffent tire composites at diffrent tracks I bet a few guys could use the same set of tires all season this year if they wanted to.:)
 
#18
#18
jhen713 said:
If they didn't use diffent tire composites at diffrent tracks I bet a few guys could use the same set of tires all season this year if they wanted to.:)
Click to expand...

What some guys did back in the day was buy the better used tires from the full time teams. My dad was on a pit crew in the 60s for a guy named George Green from Johnson City, and that is what they did. Although they ran the complete race, not just a few laps and park.

Personally, I think it shouldn't be allowed to park the car early.
 
#19
#19
Yeah, it's hard to see how it is possible for a car to only run a few laps in Qualifying pratice, Qualify, and then run 2 or three laps and make more money than a car that finishes in the top 10-15 in the nationwide race the day before.
 
#20
#20
I know that teams have to start somewhare but field-filling is not helping in the advancement of an operation. they are too worried of wrecking or causing harm to the engine to really see what their car can do. It's not helping the teams find out any info or helping the driver gain experience.
 
#21
#21
DownNDirty said:
I've tried to talk my father in law who runs a couple of ARCA races a year to get a Nationwide or Truck for next year. If it wasn't for the type of work he does and having to travel so much I think he would. As bad as it seems in Cup as it stands right now there are less than 20 full time Truck teams signed up for next season and less than 30 Nationwide teams.
Click to expand...

Enter a standalone truck or Nationwide event. There's no way that any of those entries will be filled all the way up this year. Heck, even at companion events they may not be all the way filled up.
 
#22
#22
He bought a bunch of stuff from Ganassi when he sold out the Dodge stuff. 3-4 engines, a bunch of other parts and a Dodge car. The car was a Nationwide car that he is using for ARCA. He has another car I believe that he said he can turn into a Nationwide car and he might attempt a couple of races like Nashville, Kentucky, Memphis, and Bristol if things come together.

Anyway, back on the NASCAR subject did you all see where Tommy Baldwin is starting his own Cup operation with Dave Blaney as the driver? Since it appears that the people who bought out Davis just wanted the operation for the engine program (especially considering they have dissolved both of the Truck teams) I am going to read between the lines here a little. Want to bet that Baldwin's Cup operation is a bunch of crap he bought from Davis or those other guys who bought it from Davis? This will basically just be the BDR team under a new umbrella. Baldwin is a smart guy though and maybe he can do better than Davis has done over the past couple of years. From reading the press release though I have a feeling that this is going to be a very small funded operation just looking to make some money. It might not be a start and park but I think they will run on the cheap.
 
#23
#23
Everham done pretty good starting his own team but that was due to Dodge making him their "banner operation". I just believe it will be too difficult to grow into a competitive team before the money runs out. I think Smoke's deal was the way to go if someone is looking into getting into ownership. Let someone else use up their money to lay all the ground work. Even in Smoke's case I still believe it will take at least 2 years to be a competitive orginization on a week to week basis. Him and Newman might be able to compete on the road courses or Daytona/Talladega Bristol/Martinsville type track but on the 1.5-2 mile tracks will be tough for a while.
 
#25
#25
Thanks for the Robby Gordon story, seems that pink t-shirt that may have cost 15 or 20 bucks just earned Robbie several new fans. I certainly won't forget that now. Robbie went flying by me outside of Lowes Motor Speedway on a golf cart, he was leaving the Jim Beam tent and I thew out my hand and he gave me a high-five at full speed. It was pretty cool because I think many drivers would have just looked at me and drove around me. He had the biggest grin on his face like he was just enjoying life.
 
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