2012 Ken Pom Projections are out...

#26
#26
bleedingTNorange said:
And I made myself a lot of money last year mainly using common sense lol....common sense tells me we aren't going 18-10, if I could bet that right now I'd LOVE TO.

O/U 18.5 I'll take over, you go under according to kenpom....deal?
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I think you missed golfballs point. He wasn't saying he's the gospel truth. He missed on us but he hit on countless others.
 
#29
#29
bleedingTNorange said:
All I'm saying is sometimes there's more to it than computers say....BCS has Bama #7 right?

What does kenpom say a team like Mizzou goes? Or does he have a top 25 with his rankings?
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I believe the computer average for Alabama is 3.

Sagarin's ELO-Chess has Bama 7, but that metric is terrible and doesn't take into account margins of victory (That's the BCS's choice). Sagarin's actual rating has Alabama 1st.

Ken Pom ranks all 347 teams in D1. Missouri is ranked 29th.
 
#30
#30
golfballs said:
I believe the computer average for Alabama is 3.

Sagarin's ELO-Chess has Bama 7, but that metric is terrible and doesn't take into account margins of victory (That's the BCS's choice). Sagarin's actual rating has Alabama 1st.

Ken Pom ranks all 347 teams in D1. Missouri is ranked 29th.
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Could you post their top 25, pretty interested to see that, like they have Mizzou 29th...everyone else has them top 20.
 
#31
#31
bleedingTNorange said:
Could you post their top 25, pretty interested to see that, like they have Mizzou 29th...everyone else has them top 20.
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1 Kentucky
2 Ohio St.
3 Indiana
4 Michigan St.
5 Wisconsin
6 UCLA
7 Syracuse
8 Louisville
9 Duke
10 Kansas
11 Florida
12 Michigan
13 Texas
14 Gonzaga
15 North Carolina
16 Memphis
17 Notre Dame
18 Nevada Las Vegas
19 Kansas St.
20 Baylor
21 New Mexico
22 Pittsburgh
23 Arizona
24 North Carolina St.
25 St. Louis

He really likes the Big 10
 
#34
#34
NC STATE being so low surprises me, the rest seems pretty solid at a glance though.

Hmm free money, may have to check it out some more come march, i like free money.
 
#37
#37
bleedingTNorange said:
Negative...which is surprising because I love gambling, just never took it up. Sports betting and blackjack is more my flavor...unless I get bored then I'll hit up roulette for a change of pace.
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Gambling is such a broad term. It covers things that are purely chance (like the lotto) to things that are really only slightly effected by chance (like poker and sports betting). Based on what I have seen of your personality through this message board, I would think you would love poker while I am surprised you would waste your money at roulette.
 
#38
#38
bleedingTNorange said:
Negative...which is surprising because I love gambling, just never took it up. Sports betting and blackjack is more my flavor...unless I get bored then I'll hit up roulette for a change of pace.
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It's easy to conceptualize the kenpom rankings in terms of poker hand probabilities. Bet on the probabilities and you'll win more games (or hands) than you'll lose.

Using his ranking to spot questionable lines, especially in the second half of the season, is really easy.
 
#39
#39
zansdad said:
Gambling is such a broad term. It covers things that are purely chance (like the lotto) to things that are really only slightly effected by chance (like poker and sports betting). Based on what I have seen of your personality through this message board, I would think you would love poker while I am surprised you would waste your money at roulette.
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Haha, and that's why I say surprisingly no to poker...I've had many friends swear I'd live it, to be honest I've just never gave it an honest shot.

Also, I did say i am primarily sports betting and black jack....the roulette comes in once in awhile when I've had a few too many, am feeling gutsy, and feel like winning or losing a lot real quick haha
 
#40
#40
bleedingTNorange said:
NC STATE being so low surprises me, the rest seems pretty solid at a glance though.

Hmm free money, may have to check it out some more come march, i like free money.
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NC State over-performed last year. And I definitely think they will outperform this projection. I do think they are getting over-hyped by many in the media. I think they'll fall somewhere in between.
 
#41
#41
Big 10 teams and other teams who play slow-paced offense are usually over-valued in KenPom's rankings. Wisconsin isn't a Top 5 team, lol.
 
#43
#43
Also, Vandy is going to be horrible this year and I bet don't even make the tournament.
 
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