2016: The Year of Bond Defaults

#51
#51
According to an infamous guy named Bill, that all depends on the definition. You see the point is that if some financial institution bundles a bunch of stuff together to sell and it's so complex that even most people in the financial world can't unravel it, then what chance do most people have to understand they are investing in debts not assets if we aren't all working to the same meaning of a very common word?

We are all working with the same meaning. If you purchase or invest in a very productive asset, and I purchase or invest in the financial equivalent of dog crap in a plastic bag, it makes me a fool, but it does 't make my dog crap stock something other than an asset.

You and Ras are essentially saying "Asset sounds like a positive word, so anything that winds up working out negatively must not be an asset." But your impression of the word does not change it's black-and-white meaning.
 
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#52
#52
We are all working with the same meaning. If you purchase or invest in a very productive asset, and I purchase or invest in the financial equivalent of dog crap in a plastic bag, it makes me a fool, but it does 't make my dog crap stock something other than an asset.

You and Ras are essentially saying "Asset sounds like a positive word, so anything that winds up working out negatively must not be an asset." But your impression of the word does not change it's black-and-white meaning.

It's a little odd being on the same side as Ras; but I guess we are looking at "asset" more from the common rather than the strict accounting perspective; so, no, I don't think we are all working with the same meaning. The difference in terminology when a word is used by a profession isn't normally a big problem. In nuclear engineering you find terms such as "barn" and "lethargy", and you would be unlikely to find a conflict even if you should be exposed to the usage.

However, through financial transactions we common people are exposed to the accounting version of the word "asset" and the more caviler and unfamiliar manner that accountants use it (positive as well as negative connotation), and that is a problem. Develop a new unassigned word as a placeholder for something owned that might actually be an asset or a liability and the whole discussion goes away. Do you suppose that "asset" was originally used in accounting because it did represent something of value (meaning a positive) and the evolution has been to cover shady business practices?
 
#53
#53
It's a little odd being on the same side as Ras; but I guess we are looking at "asset" more from the common rather than the strict accounting perspective; so, no, I don't think we are all working with the same meaning. The difference in terminology when a word is used by a profession isn't normally a big problem. In nuclear engineering you find terms such as "barn" and "lethargy", and you would be unlikely to find a conflict even if you should be exposed to the usage.

However, through financial transactions we common people are exposed to the accounting version of the word "asset" and the more caviler and unfamiliar manner that accountants use it (positive as well as negative connotation), and that is a problem. Develop a new unassigned word as a placeholder for something owned that might actually be an asset or a liability and the whole discussion goes away. Do you suppose that "asset" was originally used in accounting because it did represent something of value (meaning a positive) and the evolution has been to cover shady business practices?

My entire point has been to re-evaluate this definition of "asset" that is used in accounting and really think about if these items are truly assets or just unfulfilled promises in the future. But I can't even get these guys to take that intellectual leap because they want to stay boxed in to their traditional understanding of what an asset is right now. I fully understand where they are coming from, but I can't even get them to see that how things are classified right now may not be a proper way of determining the health of a bank/company.

If I can load up on bonds and issue out a bunch of commercial loans or take the collateral from one trade and turn around and use that for collateral on another trade (rehypothecation) and all of that is classified as an asset that has a net positive effect on my balance sheet, then we are setting ourselves up for rampant corruption. A balance sheet begins to lose all meaning and tells us very little about the health of a institution.
 
#54
#54
My entire point has been to re-evaluate this definition of "asset" that is used in accounting and really think about if these items are truly assets or just unfulfilled promises in the future. But I can't even get these guys to take that intellectual leap because they want to stay boxed in to their traditional understanding of what an asset is right now. I fully understand where they are coming from, but I can't even get them to see that how things are classified right now may not be a proper way of determining the health of a bank/company.

If I can load up on bonds and issue out a bunch of commercial loans or take the collateral from one trade and turn around and use that for collateral on another trade (rehypothecation) and all of that is classified as an asset that has a net positive effect on my balance sheet, then we are setting ourselves up for rampant corruption. A balance sheet begins to lose all meaning and tells us very little about the health of a institution.

I absolutely agree with you about the definition. In every other usage "asset" means something of positive worth. The only perversion seems to be in accounting.
 
#55
#55
My entire point has been to re-evaluate this definition of "asset" that is used in accounting and really think about if these items are truly assets or just unfulfilled promises in the future. But I can't even get these guys to take that intellectual leap because they want to stay boxed in to their traditional understanding of what an asset is right now. I fully understand where they are coming from, but I can't even get them to see that how things are classified right now may not be a proper way of determining the health of a bank/company.

If I can load up on bonds and issue out a bunch of commercial loans or take the collateral from one trade and turn around and use that for collateral on another trade (rehypothecation) and all of that is classified as an asset that has a net positive effect on my balance sheet, then we are setting ourselves up for rampant corruption. A balance sheet begins to lose all meaning and tells us very little about the health of a institution.

Question:

Does the vast majority of what you call "paper debt" ultimately get paid in full?
 
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#57
#57
The majority of it does get paid in full. I would assume an default is a rare event in normal situations.

Why?

It may be my perception, but it seems that a lot of your gripe is with the lack of productivity of certain assets. I was trying to get clarification.
 
#58
#58
It may be my perception, but it seems that a lot of your gripe is with the lack of productivity of certain assets. I was trying to get clarification.

No, my gripe is that we allow companies to make themselves appear to be more solvent than they actually are by allowing them to use future cash flow promises as assets. On top of that, most of the institutions I'm complaining about (banks) can create a near infinite amount of assets by either issuing more loans or borrowing money from the Fed at 0% and gambling in the markets or rehypothecate collateral held into other investments.
 
#61
#61
In a fractional reserve banking system, how else does it work?

Banks do create credit based on using money in excess of reserves, but the notion that money gets created exponentially based on banks exploiting a multiplier is false.
 
#62
#62
Banks do create credit based on using money in excess of reserves, but the notion that money gets created exponentially based on banks exploiting a multiplier is false.

And when they create credit in excess of reserves, that is the same as creating money out of thin air.
 
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#66
#66
Are you advocating for a 1:1 ratio? Because that would completely destroy our economy.

That's the problem. It's a popular conspiracy theory to believe banking is a Ponzi scheme, but you can't blame everything on banking and turn them into nothing more than money warehouses. The economy would grind to a halt.
 
#67
#67
It may be my perception, but it seems that a lot of your gripe is with the lack of productivity of certain assets. I was trying to get clarification.

My main gripe is that the last big crash was basically caused by calling junk debt "assets". They opened their books one day, realized that they were holding a bunch of junk, repackaged the junk, spread it out with other "assets", thus hiding the junk, and caused the crash.

The world was utterly surprised by this because the toxic "assets" had balanced the sheets and given a false sense of security (bubble). Then we, the taxpayers, had to put out the fire before it was too late--because the banks were able to hide the smoke with their definition of "assets".

Ras is not arguing what the strict and technical definition of "asset" is. He is pointing out that debt should not be strictly and technically defined as an asset. Recent history--and I suspect future history here very soon--has and will shown/show him to be correct, because after they took our money, they went right back to the same methods that crashed the economy the last time.
 
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#68
#68
That's the problem. It's a popular conspiracy theory to believe banking is a Ponzi scheme, but you can't blame everything on banking and turn them into nothing more than money warehouses. The economy would grind to a halt.

One does not discount the other. All you did was state that the Ponzi scheme is (supposedly) necessary.
 
#69
#69
That's the problem. It's a popular conspiracy theory to believe banking is a Ponzi scheme, but you can't blame everything on banking and turn them into nothing more than money warehouses. The economy would grind to a halt.

It is a Ponzi scheme. Banks create money out of thin air to loan it out and expect to be repaid in return with the principle plus interest. The problem is that the amount of money needed for interest doesn't exist. The only way for interest to be paid back is for more money creation by the banks. But the more money created, the more interest payments increase. And you have a vicious cycle. Not only are banks creating money at multiples of what they have in their deposits, but you have this other imaginary amount of money that needs to be accounted for (remember, when a loan is issued and money is created, the banks are only creating principle, not the principle plus interest).
 
#71
#71
It's semantics. There's a difference between counterfeiting money and using money.

I don't understand how that is semantics. If they loan out more money than they have on reserve, then where does that money come from?

And wait a minute... who granted the banks to create money anyways? I thought the treasury was involved in issuing money?
 
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#72
#72
It is a Ponzi scheme. Banks create money out of thin air to loan it out and expect to be repaid in return with the principle plus interest. The problem is that the amount of money needed for interest doesn't exist. The only way for interest to be paid back is for more money creation by the banks. But the more money created, the more interest payments increase. And you have a vicious cycle. Not only are banks creating money at multiples of what they have in their deposits, but you have this other imaginary amount of money that needs to be accounted for (remember, when a loan is issued and money is created, the banks are only creating principle, not the principle plus interest).

And there you go. It's a system that designed to fail. But the banks aren't what will "fail". It's the debtor that fails.

I know that bamawriter and GAVol will take issue with the above, so let's look at the real world application.

Borrower goes into a bank seeking a loan. The bank knows that they probably can't pay the loan back, but the loan is an "asset" that goes on their books. They have little or no skin in the game because they get to create the "money" they are loaning out with a few strokes of the old QWERTY.

They create the money out of thin air, just like all of the other banks are doing. But they don't create the $$$ that will be required to pay the interest on the loan (just like all the other banks have been doing.)

The banking industry has created an economy where, by definition, more debt exists than money to pay off the debt (principle + interest). In other words, it is impossible for all of the debt to be paid off. This is important to keep in mind as we are considering John and Jane Doe below...

All of the Jane and John Does out there now get to play Economic Musical Chairs... With more debt in the economy than money, we get to run around chasing the available $$$ to pay the debts (principle + interest) when only the principle exists.

When the music stops for any given round, the loan (that was created from nothing by the bank) is called in by the bank. For anyone without access to the money that actually exists, the bank gets their real asset through foreclosure, and the music starts up again. More debt than $$$ still exists, more chairs are removed, more people lose their homes, and the bank gets more real assets in exchange for the "debt" assets on their books (that they created from nothing).

And on and on the Ponzi scheme goes, designed to fail (i.e. trade created $$$/debt for real assets). And when the system fails, we (the tax-paying hostages), give the banks lots of our $$$ through taxes because they are too big/important to fail.

But now, according to some, not only are they too big to fail, the very system they implement is so important that we could never have an economy that worked in any other way. (Or maybe that's not what GA said. Maybe he just meant that we should keep the Ponzi scheme b/c if we did away with the Ponzi scheme, the Ponzi scheme wouldn't work... Not sure... But I expect that we could have a working economy that is not a fiat economy Ponzi scheme since we've had them before.)
 
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#73
#73
My main gripe is that the last big crash was basically caused by calling junk debt "assets". They opened their books one day, realized that they were holding a bunch of junk, repackaged the junk, spread it out with other "assets", thus hiding the junk, and caused the crash.

The world was utterly surprised by this because the toxic "assets" had balanced the sheets and given a false sense of security (bubble). Then we, the taxpayers, had to put out the fire before it was too late--because the banks were able to hide the smoke with their definition of "assets".

Ras is not arguing what the strict and technical definition of "asset" is. He is pointing out that debt should not be strictly and technically defined as an asset. Recent history--and I suspect future history here very soon--has and will shown/show him to be correct, because after they took our money, they went right back to the same methods that crashed the economy the last time.

I have a brand new car. Great shape. Runs like a dream.

I also have car that has to be push-started, can only be driven for 10 minutes before the fumes reach a dangerous level of toxicity, and the floorboards are starting to rust out.

Tell me: which one isn't a car?
 
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#74
#74
And there you go. It's a system that designed to fail. But the banks aren't what will "fail". It's the debtor that fails...


...But now, according to some, not only are they too big to fail, the very system they implement is so important that we could never have an economy that worked in any other way. (Or maybe that's not what GA said. Maybe he just meant that we should keep the Ponzi scheme b/c if we did away with the Ponzi scheme, the Ponzi scheme wouldn't work... Not sure... But I expect that we could have a working economy that is not a fiat economy Ponzi scheme since we've had them before.)

By this logic (and I am responding to your entire post, I just cut it for brevity), then any amount of lending is a "Ponzi scheme". There is no way for a depository institution to lend without creating money.

Please note that I'm not defending any specific practices of any specific institutions. I don't believe in notions like "too big to fail."
 
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#75
#75
You can't have an infinite money supply chasing a finite world of goods and services. The system will crash epically.

If there are no goods to buy, the money supply will stop growing. For every buyer, there has to be a seller. For every borrower there have to be depositors willing to not spend money. For every liability there is an asset.
 
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