2020 Presidential Race

#52,602
#52,602
I think the first question any pollster should ask is:

"Will you lie on this poll because you believe you will be attacked because of who you are supporting?"

Might get more accurate results...
 
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#52,603
#52,603
Grand Vol said:
I think the first question any pollster should ask is:

"Will you lie on this poll because you believe you will be attacked because of who you are supporting?"

Might get more accurate results...
Click to expand...
Anyone who truly cares about being judged for who they support in an anonymous poll, is more likely to decline participation than they are to lie. There is never anything which prevents a person from hanging up on a pollster, and it takes less time to do that than it does to go through with the survey and then lie.
 
#52,604
#52,604
BowlBrother85 said:
Anyone who truly cares about being judged for who they support in an anonymous poll, is more likely to decline participation than they are to lie. There is never anything which prevents a person from hanging up on a pollster, and it takes less time to do that than it does to go through with the survey and then lie.
Click to expand...

Yeah, because people really trust anonymity these days...

Furthermore, the questions often asked are formulated to get the answers they want.
 
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#52,605
#52,605
Grand Vol said:
Yeah, because people really that anonymity these days...

Furthermore, the questions often asked are formulated to get the answers they want.
Click to expand...
Not if you are talking about an "A" rated polling service.

It takes less time to hang up on a pollster, than it does to lie. Most people who are concerned about being judged for who they support, will simply hang up the phone rather than take the time to go through a survey... and lie.
 
#52,606
#52,606
Grand Vol said:
I think the first question any pollster should ask is:

"Will you lie on this poll because you believe you will be attacked because of who you are supporting?"

Might get more accurate results...
Click to expand...

I've phone banked for both parties and worked for a pollster making calls one summer in college. This timid voter you imagine, afraid to share their views, is someone who doesn't exist.

Making calls for the Dole campaign to people we had categorized as potential converts was my favorite (there weren't too many of us so I made a lot of calls).

It usually went like this:
* voter would complain about Clinton for 30 minutes
* laud Dole's history and military service
* share Dole's views on the issues
* be voting for Republicans down ticket
* then, before I could even finish asking, they'd say they were voting for Clinton.

I think I still have scars from beating my head against the table.
 
#52,608
#52,608
BowlBrother85 said:
Not if you are talking about an "A" rated polling service.

It takes less time to hang up on a pollster, than it does to lie. Most people who are concerned about being judged for who they support, will simply hang up the phone rather than take the time to go through a survey... and lie.
Click to expand...

And you just pointed out another flaw in polling. How many people do they call to get someone on the phone who will actually answer their questions?
 
#52,609
#52,609
hog88 said:
And you just pointed out another flaw in polling. How many people do they call to get someone on the phone who will actually answer their questions?
Click to expand...
Probably a lot... but the biggest problem with polls is that the majority of people who are contacted by phone, are people who have landline phones, which will skew to a much older demographic. It is important for a polling service to have a mixed blend of online, in-person, and phone surveys to draw from... or else the results will be skewed.
 
#52,610
#52,610
BowlBrother85 said:
Probably a lot... but the biggest problem with polls is that the majority of people who are contacted by phone, are people who have landline phones, which will skew to a much older demographic. It is important for a polling service to have a mixed blend of online, in-person, and phone surveys to draw from... or else the results will be skewed.
Click to expand...

I would also like to know if these pollsters have a "go to list", a list of numbers they know their call will be answered and not hung up on.
 
#52,614
#52,614
I don't think it will go GOP this election but PA is trending to becoming a Red state...add that to the +4 or so from the Census and Dems will be in trouble in the near elections
 
#52,615
#52,615
VolnJC said:
I don't think it will go GOP this election but PA is trending to becoming a Red state...add that to the +4 or so from the Census and Dems will be in trouble in the near elections
Click to expand...

You aren’t going to like the direction Texas and Georgia are going.
 
#52,622
#52,622
tvolsfan said:
You aren’t going to like the direction Texas and Georgia are going.
Click to expand...
Georgia has been turning purple for the last two decades according to Democratic insiders but has yet to vote for a Democrat since Bill Clinton. Georgia has only had a Republican governor three times in its entire history. Georgia is one of those states where they tend to vote more conservative during national elections and relatively independently for state and local elections
 
#52,623
#52,623
Battleground Polls Show Massive Shift Among Senior Voters Away From Trump

Senior voters, who comprise one of the largest voting blocs in the country, are supporting President Donald Trump at far lower rates in critical battlegrounds than four years ago, according to a slew of recent polls.


In 2016, Trump’s victories in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were clinched by his support from voters 65+, winning them by one, four and 10 points, respectively. He ultimately won each state by less than 1%.

Now, however, polls show Trump trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden among senior voters in all three states. In Wisconsin, an NBC News poll shows Biden leading among senior voters by 20 points, and in Michigan, a Detroit News poll shows Biden up among the demographic by 30 points, leading 59-29.

Battleground Polls Show Massive Shift Among Senior Voters Away From Trump
 
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