2020 Presidential Race

#54,327
#54,327
Didn't realize I was lecturing, but more just responding to HH's being bent over a Biden tweet claiming the economy was not booming and Trump has done better.

And your analogy is awful. I would tell someone that by most objective metrics, Obama turned the economy around and during Trump, that economy has stayed on the
same course that Obama set it on.
 
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#54,331
#54,331
BowlBrother85 said:
Agreed... but still, answer the question.
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I would have to google it to get the actual numbers but again I don't need to google something that I lived through. I couldn't tell you how many troops we had when we crossed the border into Iraq in 2003 but that doesn't mean I can't tell you about what happened there.
 
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#54,334
#54,334
jaybird_1981 said:
Unemployment rate doesn't tell the whole story of an economy.
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I agree.

I'll pass on going way into the weeds, but I truly believe the Obama economy was doing just fine and Trump's economy has stayed on a similar trajectory...

And economy is one of many things a president is judged on - If I was Trump, this is one I would hammer on but for whatever reason, he's all over the place trying to
talk "suburban housewives" into liking him for saving them..

Btw, has that caravan of middle-eastern terrorists from 2018 made it up here yet?
 
#54,335
#54,335
BowlBrother85 said:
4.8%.
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How many previously employed people dropped out of the job market during obama's tenure? And what was the percentage of the entire US involved in full time employment, and what number of those jobs could be considered full time and not "underemployed" employment in the economy that obama handed over to Trump? How much faith do you put in the government employment statistics - any administration? Do we need a manufacturing/industrial sector to survive, and how did presidents and congresses prior to Trump handle that question?
 
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#54,338
#54,338
DJimgo said:
I agree.

I'll pass on going way into the weeds, but I truly believe the Obama economy was doing just fine and Trump's economy has stayed on a similar trajectory...

And economy is one of many things a president is judged on - If I was Trump, this is one I would hammer on but for whatever reason, he's all over the place trying to
talk "suburban housewives" into liking him for saving them..

Btw, has that caravan of middle-eastern terrorists from 2018 made it up here yet?
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Don't kid yourself there are plenty of enemies to this country that are already here.
 
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#54,339
#54,339
jaybird_1981 said:
The reason the rate was so low during that time had a lot to do with people no longer being counted in that number because they had simply gave up on finding a job. I know in my industry the economy is a lot healthier today than it was then.
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The economic data does not support this. Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were an estimated 532,000 "discouraged workers" in the United States among the marginally attached labor market in January of 2017.

The labor-force participation rate was holding steady indicating a tightening labor market as people who were previously discouraged from looking for work moved back into the labor market. According to the January of 2017 jobs report, the labor force participation rate rose to 62.9%, from 62.7% in December. All relevant economic indices were trending in a favorable direction at the time Barack Obama left office.
 
#54,340
#54,340
hog88 said:
A better metric is the labor force participation rate which was on a steady decline from 2009 until 2016. It was growing slowly until this year and growth is always better than decline when talking about LPR.
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Politicians - especially the post NAFTA and "CRAPTA" types - don't want to even acknowledge that statistic.
 
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#54,341
#54,341
AM64 said:
Politicians - especially the post NAFTA and "CRAPTA" types - don't want to even acknowledge that statistic.
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Ha, that's awesome; a few posts ago you wrote "How much faith do you put in the government employment statistics - any administration? "
 
#54,344
#54,344
volbeast33 said:
I agree we need to start hold politicians to standards.... why do you only care about holding one side to that standard
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Again, I believe it was the post by someone clutching their pearls that Biden would dare say he had a booming economy that took us down this road. So yeah, fine, they all lie.
 
#54,345
#54,345
DJimgo said:
Again, I believe it was the post by someone clutching their pearls that Biden would dare say he had a booming economy that took us down this road. So yeah, fine, they all lie.
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I’m not clutching my pearls about Biden lying. Everyone in D.C., including Trump lies. It’s the swamp for a reason. However, the media will not dare go after one of Joe’s lies. I don’t like the double standard Democrats are given.
 
#54,346
#54,346
hog88 said:
A better metric is the labor force participation rate which was on a steady decline from 2009 until 2016. It was growing slowly until this year and growth is always better than decline when talking about LPR.
Click to expand...

There was a very slight dip in the relevant post-recession participation rate, but the actual amount of difference is so minimal that it doesn't work as a way to explain away Obama's metric of full employment.

It is an even worse talking point when you consider GDP growth didn't pick up under Trump despite unprecedented deficit spending.

All this makes little sense in an American political context anyway, as the POTUS has less to do with the 50 state economic engines and the robust American free market business cycle than any other comparable world leader. Though Trump and Obama both bungled some stuff, did some stuff right, their actual economic impact was far more minimal than their cheerleaders/detractors would have you believe. Even tariffs were an impact of fractions of a percentage point of total GDP.

So these arguments tend to waste all of our time, but that is what many voters sadly believe and they are always left wondering why outcomes don't match expectations.

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#54,347
#54,347
AM64 said:
Politicians - especially the post NAFTA and "CRAPTA" types - don't want to even acknowledge that statistic.
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I just used a little google fu and surprised that LPR was only 38% in 1960. I guess because mothers were stay home. Tax rates were prob exorbitantly high at the time due to this. Analytically, we could unpack a whole bunch from this, but my feeling is "work ethic" and "lack of discipline" are current root issues.
 
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#54,348
#54,348
Rifleman said:
There was a very slight dip in the relevant post-recession participation rate, but the actual amount of difference is so minimal that it doesn't work as a way to explain away Obama's metric of full employment.

It is an even worse talking point when you consider GDP growth didn't pick up under Trump despite unprecedented deficit spending.

All this makes little sense in an American political context anyway, as the POTUS has less to do with the 50 state economic engines and the robust American free market business cycle than any other comparable world leader. Though Trump and Obama both bungled some stuff, did some stuff right, their actual economic impact was far more minimal than their cheerleaders/detractor would have you believe. Even tariffs were an impact of fractions of a percentage point of total GDP.

So these arguments tend to waste all of our time, but that is what many voters sadly believe and they are always left wondering why outcomes don't match expectations.

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Solid analysis from u, as usual. My feeling has always been the US Prez always got too much credit or blame. But I will say there are pro growth and stifling policies and regulations. There is a scale balance tip of hand to which industries benefit. Have to give Trump credit for economic indicators that show ethnic minority economic growth for a reason.
 
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