2020 Presidential Race

#55,276
#55,276
Rifleman said:
Where the race stands if you get a little microscopic. Generally, Biden is outpolling Hillary by 8 points in most areas across the country, except:

* Trump has definitively improved over '16 with low income hispanics and possibly with black males (caution on high margins of error there)

* Biden is outperforming his outperformance of Hillary in high-education suburban areas, which makes it tough but not impossible for Trump to close enough to secure 270+ EV
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I like this comparison:

81E571A4-6538-4496-BB62-CFB5AF6503A1.png
 
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#55,277
#55,277
BowlBrother85 said:
I haven't seen that pollster enough to form an opinion, but they have an A/B rating on 538. It's not easy to find bad news on the polling front for Biden right now.
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Hopefully we get more House race polls soon in the key battlegrounds. There are also races like VA-7 or NY-2 that you'd expect Republicans to win in a year where Trump is anywhere close to re-election.

If there are "shy Trump voters" then they would be unmasked in that polling as there is no real reason to lie about their Congressional vote.
 
#55,278
#55,278
Rifleman said:
Hopefully we get more House race polls soon in the key battlegrounds. There are also races like VA-7 or NY-2 that you'd expect Republicans to win in a year where Trump is anywhere close to re-election.

If there are "shy Trump voters" then they would be unmasked in that polling as there is no real reason to lie about their Congressional vote.
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I'm not a believer in the "shy Trump voter" theory, but it's always possible that polls could be over-sampling liberals. I look for a consistency in the data of the individual states... especially Pennsylvania. They have shown Biden with a 4-6 point lead in PA for the last two months now. There is no question that is the biggest prize.
 
#55,279
#55,279
Rifleman said:
Hopefully we get more House race polls soon in the key battlegrounds. There are also races like VA-7 or NY-2 that you'd expect Republicans to win in a year where Trump is anywhere close to re-election.

If there are "shy Trump voters" then they would be unmasked in that polling as there is no real reason to lie about their Congressional vote.
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They don't participate in any "poll", period.

You can read the tea leaves all you want but the only poll that matters is on the day that the voters actually cast their ballot.

I would normally say that would be on November 3rd, but with all the anticipated shenanigans regarding mail in ballots and when they will be received and counted, there is no "date certain" this year unless it's a landslide in the swing states for one candidate or the other.

What else would you expect? It's 2020.
 
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#55,281
#55,281
Trump calls MI's Whitmer a 'monster'.

Trump calls Fauci an "idiot" and "disaster".

Seems Trump doesn't understand people like both of these people alot more than they like him. His comments as of late reek of pure desperation and frustration, and his poll #s are reflecting this - going the wrong way when he's got a huge amount of catch up to do.

Maybe his own self-destruction was his much-ballyhooed "October Surprise"?! :eek:

Too early to put a fork in him, but we're getting close.
 
#55,282
#55,282
MontyPython said:
Trump calls MI's Whitmer a 'monster'.

Trump calls Fauci an "idiot" and "disaster".

Seems Trump doesn't understand people like both of these people alot more than they like him. His comments as of late reek of pure desperation and frustration, and his poll #s are reflecting this - going the wrong way when he's got a huge amount of catch up to do.

Too early to put a fork in him, but we're getting close.
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Who likes Whitmer?
 
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#55,283
#55,283
37L1 said:
Who likes Whitmer?
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9/9/20:

In a poll of 600 likely voters by the Glengariff Group, 59% said they approve of Whitmer’s job performance, including a large share of the independent and Black voters who will be key to any Democratic win in November. The poll surveyed voters in all regions of the state Sept. 1-3, with half reached by cell phone. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Another 38% of voters disapproved of the governor's performance.

Whitmer’s jump in job approval rating appears to have stemmed from her response to the pandemic. Nearly 61% of Michigan voters approve of Whitmer’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak compared with 36% who disapprove, according to the poll.
 
#55,285
#55,285
MontyPython said:
9/9/20:

In a poll of 600 likely voters by the Glengariff Group, 59% said they approve of Whitmer’s job performance, including a large share of the independent and Black voters who will be key to any Democratic win in November. The poll surveyed voters in all regions of the state Sept. 1-3, with half reached by cell phone. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Another 38% of voters disapproved of the governor's performance.

Whitmer’s jump in job approval rating appears to have stemmed from her response to the pandemic. Nearly 61% of Michigan voters approve of Whitmer’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak compared with 36% who disapprove, according to the poll.
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Gretchen Whitmer is popular in the state of Michigan. Much more than Trump.
 
#55,286
#55,286
MontyPython said:
9/9/20:

In a poll of 600 likely voters by the Glengariff Group, 59% said they approve of Whitmer’s job performance, including a large share of the independent and Black voters who will be key to any Democratic win in November. The poll surveyed voters in all regions of the state Sept. 1-3, with half reached by cell phone. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Another 38% of voters disapproved of the governor's performance.

Whitmer’s jump in job approval rating appears to have stemmed from her response to the pandemic. Nearly 61% of Michigan voters approve of Whitmer’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak compared with 36% who disapprove, according to the poll.
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Wow, 354 people approve of whitmers performance?! So convincing!
 
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#55,288
#55,288
615vols said:
Wow, 354 people approve of whitmers performance?! So convincing!
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65% of MI women approve of Whitmer... the same women that nationally will elect Dumb Donald out of office.

Pathetic that he now literally is begging for suburban women votes. Absolutely. Pathetic.
 
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#55,289
#55,289
MontyPython said:
65% of MI women approve of Whitmer... the same women that nationally will elect Dumb Donald out of office.

Pathetic that he now literally is begging for suburban women votes. Absolutely. Pathetic.
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65% of how many? Back up your claim/cite your source, and also how do the people polled lean? Typically r or d?
 
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#55,290
#55,290
MontyPython said:
9/9/20:

In a poll of 600 likely voters by the Glengariff Group, 59% said they approve of Whitmer’s job performance, including a large share of the independent and Black voters who will be key to any Democratic win in November. The poll surveyed voters in all regions of the state Sept. 1-3, with half reached by cell phone. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Another 38% of voters disapproved of the governor's performance.

Whitmer’s jump in job approval rating appears to have stemmed from her response to the pandemic. Nearly 61% of Michigan voters approve of Whitmer’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak compared with 36% who disapprove, according to the poll.
Click to expand...
Interesting.

So Michigan is a lock for Biden, you say?
 
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#55,294
#55,294
BowlBrother85 said:
I'm not a believer in the "shy Trump voter" theory, but it's always possible that polls could be over-sampling liberals. I look for a consistency in the data of the individual states... especially Pennsylvania. They have shown Biden with a 4-6 point lead in PA for the last two months now. There is no question that is the biggest prize.
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Purely anecdotal, but I think the “shy Trump voter” was a 2016 phenomenon. My family and many of our friends (a smattering of D, R, and I, but mostly moderates) here in PA and Ohio admittedly voted for Trump in ‘16. They were a combination of curious about trump and fed up with establishments. Now, a large number of them are disgusted by trump mainly on the basis of character or family values. People in the rust belt aren’t as married to a particular party as many other areas of the country are. They have family roots in industry, strong unions, Christianity, tolerance, and overall independence. They typically won’t carry water for a terrible person, and I suspect that will be the case in this election. Ohio is a tougher pull for Biden (more rural population to rely on for Trump), but I think PA, MI, and WI are going to be solid Biden states.
 
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#55,296
#55,296
MontyPython said:
9/9/20:

In a poll of 600 likely voters by the Glengariff Group, 59% said they approve of Whitmer’s job performance, including a large share of the independent and Black voters who will be key to any Democratic win in November. The poll surveyed voters in all regions of the state Sept. 1-3, with half reached by cell phone. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Another 38% of voters disapproved of the governor's performance.

Whitmer’s jump in job approval rating appears to have stemmed from her response to the pandemic. Nearly 61% of Michigan voters approve of Whitmer’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak compared with 36% who disapprove, according to the poll.
Click to expand...
Putin gets a 90% approval rating.
 
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