2020 Presidential Race

#58,977
#58,977
Rifleman said:
Final Week Polling Leads

Year: Polling Lead : End Result : Shift

2020: Biden+9.1 : 5.6 - 12.7 (95% percent confidence range) : ?

2016: Clinton+4.8 : Clinton +2.1 : -2.7
2012: Romney+0.5 : Obama +3.9 : -4.4
2008: Obama+7.0 : Obama +7.3 : +0.3
2004: Bush+2.2 : Bush +2.5 : +0.3
2000: Bush+3.4 : Gore + 0.5 : - 3.9
1996: Clinton+14.7 : Clinton +8.5 : -6.1
1992: Clinton+10.0 : Clinton +5.6 : -4.4
1988: Bush+11.8 : Bush +7.7 : -4.1
1984: Reagan+17.8 : Reagan +18.2 : +0.4
1980: Reagan+1.3 : Reagan +9.7 : +8.4

Big final week shifts are possible, but:

* they usually follow an established trend (2016, 2012, 1988, 1980)
* require a large number of undecideds or general voter ambivalence (2016, 2000, 1996, 1992)
* feature strong 3rd party candidates (2016, 1996, 1992, 1980)
* feature major events close to the election (2016, 1992, 1980) - 2008 wouldn't count here as the economy collapsed in September

I think Biden's final national lead will hold fairly steady. Worst case is around 5.5, which could put a Trump EC win in play if Biden collapses in one or more of the Rustbelt Trinity, and his best case is a little over 12.5.
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Forgive me if I don't understand the numbers, but is Biden's +9.1 to mean his victory will be on par with Reagan v Carter and Clinton v Dole???

If so, I don't see it. I think he wins but not that decisively.
 
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#58,979
#58,979
BowlBrother85 said:
That article only cites one poll - IBD/TIPP. The Economist/YouGov also released a new poll today and they have it:

Joe Biden (D) ............. 54%
Donald Trump (R) .... 42%

The polling average on 538 has Biden with a 9.1% lead:

Joe Biden (D) .............. 52.1%
Donald Trump (R) ..... 43.0%

That is about where Biden's lead has been for over a month now.
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IBD/TIPP was the most accurate poll in 2016. Most of the polls were dead wrong. Believe which poll you want.
 
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#58,980
#58,980
0nelilreb said:
Yes I agree he chose his worlds carefully , he’s saying if you will sell your freedom for some coin then may your chains sit lightly on you . They all chose they words carefully then , just like when the chose what they thought was the most important or 1st amendment but should we ignore the rest of what he said ? Should we ignore the other amendments? It would be unwise to cherry pick one phrase from a FF and ignore the rest .. me thinketh
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The left has always cherry picked. The 1st amendment gives the right to speak freely but not the right to force anyone but the government to listen - the second part is largely ignored. It gives the right to peaceably assemble; and when not cherry picked, for the intent of forcing the government to listen to what citizens view as wrongs (redress of grievances). Libs have always shown a propensity for bending the rules to their point of view and trying to cram their agenda down the throats of everyone else - often violently. You can really only conclude that libs view themselves above the law unless they own the process.
 
#58,983
#58,983
McDad said:
Forgive me if I don't understand the numbers, but is Biden's +9.1 to mean his victory will be on par with Reagan v Carter and Clinton v Dole???

If so, I don't see it. I think he wins but not that decisively.
Click to expand...

No. That first number is the current polling leader, and the size of their lead with one week to go. Biden is up 9.1 in polling, Romney was up 0.5, etc.

No one will ever touch Reagan 1984's 18.2 in my lifetime, but I'd say Biden has about a 2 in 5 chance to tie or beat Reagan's 9.7 from 1980. That is simply because he will have giant margins in CA, NY, MA, IL, VA, and be near parity in some large states GOP should be crushing him in like TX, GA, and FL.

Of course, national popular vote only functions like a dogwalker with 51 dogs. They all have minds of their own. But if the dogwalker strays to close to the street or the butcher shop, things can go off the planned route pretty fast.
 
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#58,985
#58,985
rekinhavoc said:
IBD/TIPP was the most accurate poll in 2016. Most of the polls were dead wrong. Believe which poll you want.
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USC and Google Consumer Surveys correctly predicted the national margin.

IBD/TIPP, Lucid, NBC and Ipsos all missed by 1 point.

ABC, Selzer, Angus Reid, and RKM all missed by 2 points.

So IBD/TIPP was not the most accurate and it was not an outlier poll in 2016 by any means.
 
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#58,986
#58,986
Rifleman said:
No. That first number is the current polling leader, and the size of their lead with one week to go. Biden is up 9.1 in polling, Romney was up 0.5, etc.

No one will ever touch Reagan's 18.2 in my lifetime, but I'd say Biden has about a 2 in 5 chance to tie or beat Reagan's 9.7. That is simply because he will have giant margins in CA, NY, MA, IL, VA, and be near parity in some large states GOP should be crushing him in like TX, GA, and FL.

Of course, national popular vote only functions like a dogwalker with 51 dogs. They all have minds of their own. But if the dogwalker strays to close to the street or the butcher shop, things can go off the planned route pretty fast.
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I understand no one will touch Reagan v Mondale. That's why I referenced Reagan v Carter. How does the 9.1 of Biden today correlate to the 9.7 of Reagan v Carter of 1980?
 
#58,987
#58,987
C-south said:
What weight? How has Trump negatively impacted your life?
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Luther and others are obviously emotionally scarred by having had to accept that any nonbeliever of their agenda - particularly a guy named Trump - has held the title "President". We may look at a fool like Obama, say "eat schiff and die", and walk it off - libs can't manage that.
 
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#58,993
#58,993
AM64 said:
Luther and others are obviously emotionally scarred by having had to accept that any nonbeliever of their agenda - particularly a guy named Trump - has held the title "President". We may look at a fool like Obama, say "eat schiff and die", and walk it off - libs can't manage that.
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That is absolutely absurd.
It has nothing to do with my agenda. I've lived under plenty of presidents that did not support my agenda...so what.
It's the horrendously despicable human part that I refuse to tolerate.
Why you guys refuse to process that critical fact is beyond me (not really, I understand perfectly well why that is)
 
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#58,994
#58,994
McDad said:
I understand no one will touch Reagan v Mondale. That's why I referenced Reagan v Carter. How does the 9.1 of Biden today correlate to the 9.7 of Reagan v Carter of 1980?
Click to expand...

Biden can top that number. It is slightly more likely that he won't because he is under it right now and there is a very slight but clear trend in Trump's direction in the polling aggregates.

If there is a similar polling miss to 2012, then Biden would win by more than 10 points. That final margin will take some time to calculate.
 
#58,996
#58,996
luthervol said:
That absolutely absurd.
It has nothing to do with my agenda. I've lived under plenty of presidents that did not support my agenda...so what.
It's the horrendously despicable human part that I refuse to tolerate.
Why you guys refuse to process that critical fact is beyond me (not really, I understand perfectly well why that is)
Click to expand...

Your agenda is that you don't see the sad pieces of "humanity" that your side has chosen in the same light. You are willing to overlook everything else if the politics fit your viewpoint.
 
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#59,000
#59,000
4a0VAFDpJ9.jpeg
 
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