2024 Presidential Race

#44,001
#44,001
BowlBrother85 said:
Yes, I'm familiar with Tom Bradley's run for Governor of California. I also know that was way back in 1988. I also know that it certainly wasn't anything more than an incorrect theory in 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama won his elections handily. There was no hidden vote. The polls were accurate. The "Bradley Effect" is not a "fact." It is a theory. To the extent that this theory ever really was truly applicable ... it has now become antiquated. I wouldn't be counting on that in 2024, if I was a Republican. To assume that the polls are 2.5-4% points off is rather comical.

As far as the polling is concerned, I agree that the battleground state-by-state is a better indicator. However, when you look at the Real Clear Polling state-by-state averages you see that Harris has a lead (albeit a small lead) in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Those are the only battleground states that she needs
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but collectively her lead is 3.9 points smaller than Biden's there in 2020 and 1.5 points smaller than Clinton's lead in 2016 (Clinton lost the swing states).

the numbers currently favor Trump
 
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#44,003
#44,003
LSU-SIU said:
Nash, because you won't answer in good faith, a reasonable person could conclude the original assessment is correct. You are able to correct if you wish, but every post you are going further away like LG would. Instead of typing all this, all you have to do is answer.
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Word. For. Word. If you said you didn’t vote for Trump, “a reasonable person” would believe you didn’t vote for Trump, dumbass
NashVol11 said:
No, you lied before and you’re saying if I don’t give you attention you’ll go back to lying again.
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#44,004
#44,004
NashVol11 said:
Word. For. Word.
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You are not answering the relevant questions I gave, this is pure factual. Matter of fact, I gave you the questions yesterday. Nobody was lying, that was my assessment i.e. opinion. I worked in good faith and said/implied.... maybe you are right. Now you have the opportunity to prove your claim that my assessment is wrong.
 
#44,006
#44,006
volinbham said:
but collectively her lead is 3.9 points smaller than Biden's there in 2020 and 1.5 points smaller than Clinton's lead in 2016 (Clinton lost the swing states).

the numbers currently favor Trump
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So what? I'm looking at trends .... It's a completely different race. Harris has only been the presumptive nominee/nominee of the Democratic Party since the end of July. Clinton's campaign fell apart in October. You are comparing apples to oranges.

The polls and the trends favor Harris. If she does win North Carolina .... the election is hers. She is doing well in NC right now.
 
#44,007
#44,007
BowlBrother85 said:
Already been posted. Silver assumes that every toss-up state will go to Trump which is absurd. Harris leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin according to the Real Clear Polling Averages.
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He literally posted today contradicting that. There’s a reason they showed a map without linking to anything.
 
#44,008
#44,008
LSU-SIU said:
I worked in good faith and said/implied.... maybe you are right. Now you have the opportunity to prove your claim that my assessment is wrong.
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“MAYBE you are right about what you yourself believe and/or did” is insanely bad faith, since no one ever taught you how to interact with people.

It’s me, I am the person in question. There’s no maybe.
 
#44,009
#44,009
volinbham said:
but collectively her lead is 3.9 points smaller than Biden's there in 2020 and 1.5 points smaller than Clinton's lead in 2016 (Clinton lost the swing states).

the numbers currently favor Trump
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The real numbers were given earlier in the week to those really in charge, its most likely worse than Dementia Joe at this point and sliding fast. (who knows if it sticks, but the trend is getting to the point of not being able to fudge on election day)

I would expect more craziness.
 
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#44,010
#44,010
NashVol11 said:
“MAYBE you are right about what you yourself believe and/or did” is insanely bad faith, since no one ever taught you how to interact with people
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No, its an opinion, I gave my honest opinion. You are proving that opinion true by you continuous posting things that have nothing to do with my questions.
 
#44,011
#44,011
LSU-SIU said:
The real numbers were given earlier in the week to those really in charge, its most likely worse than Dementia Joe at this point and sliding fast. (who knows if it sticks, but the trend is getting to the point of not being to fudge on election day)

I would expect more craziness.
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How lucky we are to have someone posting here, who is so clued in to what's really going on .....
 
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#44,012
#44,012
BowlBrother85 said:
How lucky we are to have someone posting here, who is so clued in to what's really going on .....
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Well, I am giving him the opportunity to correct the false assumption if it exists, its not really difficult. There isn't any complex going on here, its not advance Physics.
 
#44,013
#44,013
LSU-SIU said:
No, its an opinion, I gave my honest opinion. You are proving that opinion true by you continuous posting things that have nothing to do with my questions.
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Great. If you have an “opinion” about what I think or what I did and I tell you it’s wrong, then it’s wrong. It’s not a debate, you don’t know me at all. That’s how “reasonable people” behave
 
#44,015
#44,015
NashVol11 said:
Great. If you have an “opinion” about what I think or what I did and I tell you it’s wrong, then it’s wrong. It’s not a debate. That’s how “reasonable people” behave
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You are saying the opinion is wrong but you are not saying the facts within the opinion are wrong. Who did you vote for? (see original posts) Every time you post without answering is just proving everyone right.

If you want honest debate and conversation one might have questions as to your past, present and future considerations.

Cool, you didn't vote for Biden. Who did you vote for? (see post from yesterday in full)
 
#44,016
#44,016
LSU-SIU said:
You are saying the opinion is wrong but you are not saying the facts within the opinion are wrong. Who did you vote for? (see original posts) Every time you post without answering is just proving everyone right.
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It’s all wrong. If I have an “opinion” that you voted for Trump and you tell me you didn’t vote for Trump, then you didn’t. It’s that simple. No need to “prove” s**t, you just want to argue
 
#44,017
#44,017
NashVol11 said:
It’s all wrong. If I have an “opinion” that you voted for Trump and you tell me you didn’t vote for Trump, then you didn’t. It’s that simple. No need to “prove” s**t, you just want to argue
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Well, I have no problem with you saying you don't believe me. If you don't believe me, so be it. All I have asked you is who you voted for? Normally a person wouldn't be this defensive. I am taking your words at face value, but at this point you are proving me right.
 
#44,018
#44,018
LSU-SIU said:
You are saying the opinion is wrong but you are not saying the facts within the opinion are wrong. Who did you vote for? (see original posts) Every time you post without answering is just proving everyone right.

If you want honest debate and conversation one might have questions as to your past, present and future considerations.
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You must enjoy your silly and contrived confrontations with people on a message board. Doesn't seem like fun to reasonable people, but if it floats your boat, go for it. You must need the affirmation(likes) it gets from some of our dedicated posters. Of course it's not real credibility
 
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#44,019
#44,019
BernardKingGOAT said:
You must enjoy your silly and contrived confrontations with people on a message board. Doesn't seem like fun to reasonable people, but if it floats your boat, go for it. You must need the affirmation(likes) it gets from some of our dedicated posters. Of course it's not real credibility
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Thanks LG.
 
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#44,020
#44,020
LSU-SIU said:
Well, I have no problem with you saying you don't believe me. If you don't believe me, so be it. All I have asked you is who you voted for? Normally a person wouldn't be this defensive. I am taking your words at face value, but at this point you are proving me right.
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If you are taking my words at face value then stop making **** up. If you’re instead assuming I’m lying about myself unless I “prove” otherwise then STFU about “good faith” because no one else here does that
 
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#44,021
#44,021
NashVol11 said:
If you are taking my words at face value then stop making **** up. If you’re instead assuming I’m lying about myself unless I “prove” otherwise then STFU about “good faith” because no one else here does that
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Question still stands, who have you been voting for?
 
#44,022
#44,022
BowlBrother85 said:
Already been posted. Silver assumes that every toss-up state will go to Trump which is absurd. Harris leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin according to the Real Clear Polling Averages.
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True but aren’t all of those moving towards Trump? It looked like it to me earlier and all are very close.
 
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