nicksjuzunk
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Tennessee remains at home this week after knocking off Florida... something that should never be taken for granted. We've seen enough losses to last a lifetime against the Gators, so I'm not shedding any tears. What appeared not too long ago to be an absolute monster of a showdown has become a very odd match-up within the course of two short weeks. Alabama had an inexplicable loss to Vandy and before we could finish laughing, Arkansas did an absolute number on the Vols and left everyone scratching their heads. The following week, although victories for each program, did nothing to ease concerns, as the fighting Beamer Baws took the Crimson Decliners to the brink and Tennessee had all they could handle from a Florida team that had no business being on the field. College football is officially weird now. Is Vandy the 3rd best team in the conference over the last two weeks? Wow.
Keys to Victory:
1. 3rd down Conversions: Vandy and SC both beat Bama on the ground, with their mobile quarterbacks picking up valuable yardage when needed, but not necessarily featuring the QB as a runner. This allowed SC to go 7/15 on 3rd down conversions and Vandy converted 75% of the time. This gave each team the edge as Bama was right around 50% in each game. The problem is this... Tennessee was a bark gnawing 4-15 against the Gators and 7-16 vs Arkansas, including 0-2 on 4th downs. If the Vols can't sustain drives by picking up third and fourth downs, this game will not be manageable at all.
2. Dominate the Ground Game: Remember the days when Bama had future Heisman winners stacked up at running back. That is not today, and it will not be Saturday. Tennessee must when this battle by rushing for over 175 yards. We only managed a pathetic 3.3 YPC for 143 yards vs. the Gators and the OL has been brutal to watch with Lance Heard and John Campbell performing absolutely atrociously. If the Vols struggle to get the running game going they will need to try to exploit the short passing game and WR screens to keep defenders off of Nico and use it as an extension to the run.
3. Contain Milroe: One of the reasons Bama's rushing offense has been off the past two weeks has been the reduced effectiveness of Jalen Milroe as a runner. SC did a great job containing him as he only rushed for 36 yards on 18 caries and 10 yards on 7 carries against Vandy. Compare that to when he rushed for 117 vs Georgia, and I think you can expect the Bama coaching staff to do some math and realize they need to utilize him more. With Pili out for the year, we will be leaning on youth in the middle to keep Milroe from getting to the third level. This is key.
Prediction: This one is wild, which is a nice change of pace for a TN / Bama game I suppose. I could see this being a 20 point victory in either direction depending on which version of each team shows up. I could also see this as another classic nailbiter like we had a couple of years ago. Home at Neyland is a great advantage, but I just don't know that I can go against the most recent thing I have seen from each team.
TN 20
Bama 24
just joshing dude.
