4th down aggressiveness

[hUTch2002]

All who have been taught how to perform risk assessments are going to get this at a glance.

When you live mostly in Column E, as our lads do 80% of the time, it is understandable if you take risks more often.

It simply can't hurt us as much as, say, an Arkansas.

So it's not really so much about sheer, bald aggressiveness as it is about proper risk management.

Go Vols!

Ooh, I love it. I work in insurance so you’re speaking my language. Great point!

 

[hUTch2002]

Wasn't directing at you, just general random thoughts. Every decision these coaches make have the potential to make them look good or bite them in the butt. Glad I don't have to make those decisions then defend them when they don't work out. Just glad to have a competent staff in charge. Have a Great day and GBO.

Oh sure, I didn’t take it poorly at all. We’re just discussing and offering opinions. This is exactly why I made the post. I wanted to get different perspectives and there have been sone excellent ones posted. You have a great day too! It sure is a great day to be a Tennessee Vol!

 

[RavinDave]

I see you have great taste, lol. Old Tom Clancy fan here. Retired so I sarted reading novels again and started with the Jack Carr books with the James Reece character that inspired the Terminal List series starring Chris Pratt. Finished the 22 book series by Thor and thinking of checking out the Jack Reacher series. Any experience with Lee Child's Jack Reacher series.

Have not read any of Carr but have read the whole Reacher series and enjoyed it. (The Netflix series sux tho’, does not do justice to Lee Child’s work.)

BTW I will be 68 in a couple months but still working my tail off in my own business.

 

[jasonvol18]

I’ve seen a recent trend where coaches are being overly aggressive on 4th down. I thought we did it twice yesterday. It turned out fine in our game obviously but if we take the early FG and then punt there at the end of the half we’re up 17 (3 scores) rather than 11 at the half. Instead of cutting it to 4 early in the second half they’d have never gotten closer than 10. Here are 3 examples in the last 2 weeks where being overly aggressive likely cost their team the game.

1. Arkansas went for it on 4th and 2 from the 50 yesterday against LSU with a backup QB and LSU’s offense doing absolutely nothing. At that point it was 6-3 LSU and that led to LSU’s only TD on the way to a 13-10 win. Arkansas should’ve punted and made LSU drive the field as the play call was bad too and lost more than 10 yards, setting up a short field.
2. Ole Miss had an early FG from the 12 and decided to go for 4th and 2 instead yesterday against Bama. They lost by 6 when they were down at the goal line there at the end. Take the early FG and you can kick a FG to go to OT.
3. Auburn passed on an early second half FG against Miss St last week when down 12 and instead went for 4th and 4. That game went to OT.

Of course we all saw how LSU being too aggressive on 4th down cost them against us. I get it a little more when it’s a yard or less but most of these calls aren’t. The same is happening when going for 2. Bama went 0/2 against LSU in 2-point tries in regulation and they lost by 1 in OT. It just seems to me that coaches, overall, are getting too cute and being too aggressive. It worked out fine for us yesterday but none of these other examples did and when we’re in the playoff those calls could be the difference between winning and losing. What says VN?

Another thing that drives me nuts is 4th and inches and teams lining up shotgun. I'm so glad CJH has Hendon line up under center in those situations most times..So many times you see an aggressive DLine stop those plays for losses.

 

[Firebirdparts]

It's definitely a big trend and everybody (fans, players, announcers) are heaping praise on the coaches for doing it. The problem of course is that you can lose games doing it. If the game plays out the same, Florida beats Tennessee if they take a little smarter approach. And that's just one example. Pittman and Kiffin both yesterday, same thing.

I don't think it's a big deal (let's say mildly stupid) until you start refusing to take 3 points multiple times in one game. although in Florida's case against Tennessee, they could changed just one super-obvious call and tied the game, I should say.

 

[hUTch2002]

Another thing that drives me nuts is 4th and inches and teams lining up shotgun. I'm so glad CJH has Hendon line up under center in those situations most times..So many times you see an aggressive DLine stop those plays for losses.

I absolutely LOVE that coach put in a power set. And we’ve been fantastic at running it this year. Kudos to this staff.

 

[Zues1]

Oh you are absolutely correct. That’s why I mentioned Bama against LSU. Bama kicks XPs rather than going for 2 and they win that game. They went 0/2 on 2-point conversion attempts in a game that went to OT. I grew up under the whole, “don’t go for two until you absolutely have to” mantra. Granted, today’s game is different but I still think that mantra applies. I see more teams mess up by not taking the XP than teams that work out because they converted 2 when it wasn’t absolutely needed. Now, I admit that could be confirmation bias as it’s purely anecdotal and of course the failure will stand out more. What I do think teams should do more aggressively is when they score a TD to go up 7 and an XP would make it 8 I think that’s a great spot to go for 2 because going up 9 makes it 2 scores but 7 vs 8 isn’t a massive difference. To me, that’s smart aggression but I never see teams do it.

We saw Kelly go for two immediately in OT to win. I don't think most coaches go for two there.

 

[Firebirdparts]

For those who don’t recall, Florida lost to us by 5 after refusing to kick an obvious field goal AND two PATs. They donated all 5.

 

[Mustng959]

Didn't matter in the final score yesterday but what I remember in the first half is when we were struggling a little the previous 3 plays on one series .....
We ran on 1st down and got about a yard, we ran again on 2nd down and got about 2 yards then we threw on 3rd down - incomplete. When we went for it on 4th down we threw a short pass and we were immediately tackled short of the yard marker.
My thought and I'm not a coach, was that pass needed to be past the yard marker at least.
I'm sure the thought process was to be able to get a few yards after the catch but Mizzou was playing pretty good defense early. We were probably also too far for a field goal and too close to punt. Rolled the dice and "7 come 11" didn't happen. All started with the 2 stuffed runs on early downs. Adjustments happened in the 2nd half and the issue was a non issue from there on out.

 

[adammav9]

I see you have great taste, lol. Old Tom Clancy fan here. Retired so I sarted reading novels again and started with the Jack Carr books with the James Reece character that inspired the Terminal List series starring Chris Pratt. Finished the 22 book series by Thor and thinking of checking out the Jack Reacher series. Any experience with Lee Child's Jack Reacher series.

Not reacher but all the Vince Flynn series books are great as well.

 

[Scot Harvath]

Have not read any of Carr but have read the whole Reacher series and enjoyed it. (The Netflix series sux tho’, does not do justice to Lee Child’s work.)

BTW I will be 68 in a couple months but still working my tail off in my own business.

Thanks for the Reacher info. Was wondering how close the Netflix series was to the books.
I had to retire a couple of years early because the business I worked for went out of business. Didn’t take long to get used to retirement though, lol. Have a great day

 

[RavinDave]

Thanks for the Reacher info. Was wondering how close the Netflix series was to the books.
I had to retire a couple of years early because the business I worked for went out of business. Didn’t take long to get used to retirement though, lol. Have a great day

You too my friend and fellow Vols fan!

 

[chuck0303]

All who have been taught how to perform risk assessments are going to get this at a glance.

When you live mostly in Column E, as our lads do 80% of the time, it is understandable if you take risks more often.

It simply can't hurt us as much as, say, an Arkansas.

So it's not really so much about sheer, bald aggressiveness as it is about proper risk management.

Go Vols!

Think my head hurts.

 

[hUTch2002]

We saw Kelly go for two immediately in OT to win. I don't think most coaches go for two there.

I do like that idea at times too. You have the chance to win if you can make 2 yards. I’d rather have the ball in my hand with a chance to win then possibly have the other team control it.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Think my head hurts.

Haha.

It's really not as complicated as it looks. One scale is: "how likely is this bad thing to happen?" And the other scale is, "how much will it hurt us if it does happen?"

And you just multiply those two by each other to get a score. The lower the score, the safer you are going for it in spite of the risk.

Here, I'll give examples from a few of the extreme corners:

Ex 1: You are considering sleeping with the flirty wife of a Navy Seal. The likelihood he is going to eventually catch you is very high. And the likelihood he will rip your arms off if he does catch you, also very high. So like .9 times .9. That's an 81% chance you really can't afford to do this thing. So don't do it.

Ex 2: You are considering slapping your little brother up side the head. Your parents are not home. And in any case, they don't like your little brother, either. The likelihood they'll catch you is very low. And the likelihood they'll do anything harsh to you if they do find out, also very low. So along the lines of .1 times .1. That's a 1% chance this will really cost you anything. So go ahead, slap away.

Ex 3: Someone left the keys running in a Brinks delivery truck. There is absolutely no one in view. You can easily slip inside, grab a bag of money, and walk away. You're almost positive no one will ever know it was you, the likelihood you'll get caught is super low. On the other hand, if you do get caught, you'll end up being nicknamed Sally on Cell Block C of the federal prison in Kansas. So it's a .1 times .9 kind of situation, which comes out somewhere around 45% or so. That's a tough one. Do you feel lucky?

See? Not hard to do, once you have a feel for it.

Go Vols!

 

[BACKDOC]

I’ve seen a recent trend where coaches are being overly aggressive on 4th down. I thought we did it twice yesterday. It turned out fine in our game obviously but if we take the early FG and then punt there at the end of the half we’re up 17 (3 scores) rather than 11 at the half. Instead of cutting it to 4 early in the second half they’d have never gotten closer than 10. Here are 3 examples in the last 2 weeks where being overly aggressive likely cost their team the game.

1. Arkansas went for it on 4th and 2 from the 50 yesterday against LSU with a backup QB and LSU’s offense doing absolutely nothing. At that point it was 6-3 LSU and that led to LSU’s only TD on the way to a 13-10 win. Arkansas should’ve punted and made LSU drive the field as the play call was bad too and lost more than 10 yards, setting up a short field.
2. Ole Miss had an early FG from the 12 and decided to go for 4th and 2 instead yesterday against Bama. They lost by 6 when they were down at the goal line there at the end. Take the early FG and you can kick a FG to go to OT.
3. Auburn passed on an early second half FG against Miss St last week when down 12 and instead went for 4th and 4. That game went to OT.

Of course we all saw how LSU being too aggressive on 4th down cost them against us. I get it a little more when it’s a yard or less but most of these calls aren’t. The same is happening when going for 2. Bama went 0/2 against LSU in 2-point tries in regulation and they lost by 1 in OT. It just seems to me that coaches, overall, are getting too cute and being too aggressive. It worked out fine for us yesterday but none of these other examples did and when we’re in the playoff those calls could be the difference between winning and losing. What says VN?

Well you noticed he wasn't as aggressive against UGA, but I totally agree. I also think you watch too much football. lol

 

[utchs81]

Have not read any of Carr but have read the whole Reacher series and enjoyed it. (The Netflix series sux tho’, does not do justice to Lee Child’s work.)

BTW I will be 68 in a couple months but still working my tail off in my own business.

I thought the Netflix Reacher series was very good and followed the plot line of the book closely. At least it didn't have 'you know who ' in the starring role. But I, like you, have enjoyed the entire series of books to this point.

 

[RavinDave]

I thought the Netflix Reacher series was very good and followed the plot line of the book closely. At least it didn't have 'you know who ' in the starring role. But I, like you, have enjoyed the entire series of books to this point.

Maybe I gave up too soon on the Netflix series, not so easy to convert the tone of the books onto the small screen.

 

[utchs81]

Dave the next netflix series will be based on book 11, " Bad Luck and Trouble"

 

[hUTch2002]

Well you noticed he wasn't as aggressive against UGA, but I totally agree. I also think you watch too much football. lol

I did this past Saturday. I had my other devices going with multiple games while watching ours on the TV. It was beautiful.

 

[FLVOL_79]

Maybe its time to add a 5th down?

 

[GAVol]

The reason it seems gutsy to go for it on 4th down is coaches have been playing not to lose on 4th down for the past 100 years.

 

[DaddyChad]

It’s interesting bc analytically what you should do shifts from team to team and situation to situation. I think this team is always about generating an extra opportunity to score a TD. Stresses the other defense and offense into our style of game and as we’ve seen not many teams can match us there.

We’re not that much more talented than several other teams but we get a lot out of the talent. I would also point out it’s not just defenders that are stressed by Heupel’s system and offensive philosophy it’s the opposing coaches as well that make uncharacteristic decisions as well during the course of a game.

 

[volbound1700]

I think another factor driving it is that defenses are not as strong today with the rule changes and just general change of the game.