More believable than you would think. I tore mine the summer before freshman year of high school. It was misdiagnosed, but was able to play 8 years before having TJ (including my final season with a full rupture of the UCL). If you play baseball at a high level, you have UCL damage, it's just a question of the severity. Some tears can be rehabbed, and that is certainly preferable to having TJ, but there is no way of knowing until you rest and do the rehab. As someone with a large elbow scar, I had a feeling this would be the end result, but it was worth seeing if it could be avoided.