All things STOCKS

#26
#26
i used to believe in mutual funds until about 5 years ago… They will underperform versus single stocks now over the long haul . I have 50% of my portfolio in 25 to 30 stocks.
 
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#27
#27
Biopsyman said:
i used to believe in mutual funds until about 5 years ago… They will underperform versus single stocks now over the long haul . I have 50% of my portfolio in 25 to 30 stocks.
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Mutual funds and ETFs that track the markets and the indexes will match the markets and indexes they track minus the administrative costs. Leveraged ETFs can do far better (or worse). Some individual stocks are better... some are black holes.
 
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#28
#28
bignewt said:
I agree except that they own more and more of their programming. They are investing 6 billion in original shows just THIS YEAR. So eventually they will start turning a profit once that library grows large enough. Just sucks that the street is watching subs more than revenue.
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Revenue is pretty much directly correlated to the # of subs.
 
#33
#33
InVOLuntary said:
Netflix scares me a little. A lot of big timers entering the streaming game.
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Google, Amazon, and Facebook are all into streaming. I don't see how NFLX will be able to compete with that. Could be a potential takeover/merger target though... not a short IMO. Buy Puts possibly.
 
#34
#34
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Google, Amazon, and Facebook are all into streaming. I don't see how NFLX will be able to compete with that. Could be a potential takeover/merger target though... not a short IMO. Buy Puts possibly.
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I read an article that said AT&T and Verizon were getting into the streaming business too. I have dish Network and they purchased Blockbuster and they stream content now too.
 
#35
#35
InVOLuntary said:
I read an article that said AT&T and Verizon were getting into the streaming business too. I have dish Network and they purchased Blockbuster and they stream content now too.
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Netflix kind of looks more and more like an unnecessary middleman between content owners and content deliverers. AT&T merging with Time Warner combines a large amount if content with a widespread distribution network. I don't know if Netflix should be valued anywhere close to $60 billion. Their customer base of almost 100 million subs is what keeps their valuation at the current level.

Content: Disney, Discovery, Time Warner, ABC/NBC/CBS, Scripps Networks, local network TV affiliates, cable networks (USA, ESPN, etc)

Distribution: cable companies, wireless companies, dish companies, local/regional telephone companies, electric utilities

Other/both: Google, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook, Twitter
 
#36
#36
You guys realize the reason Netflix rules the strreaming game is ORIGINAL CONTENT right? The others cannot touch them and until they can its Netflix's game.
 
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#37
#37
bignewt said:
You guys realize the reason Netflix rules the strreaming game is ORIGINAL CONTENT right? The others cannot touch them and until they can its Netflix's game.
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Netflix maybe can't generate enough additional revenue to keep up with it's spending. Subscriber growth is the key since they don't have an advertising based business model.
 
#38
#38
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Netflix maybe can't generate enough additional revenue to keep up with it's spending. Subscriber growth is the key since they don't have an advertising based business model.
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They are generating lots of internally developed content. If the licensing fees for external programs get too high they'll simply make more shows, further increasing margins. Look how many good shows and good actors are going to Amazon/Hulu/Netflix. Much less constrained creatively. I don't think they're in any danger of being acquired.
 
#39
#39
DancingOutlaw said:
They are generating lots of internally developed content. If the licensing fees for external programs get too high they'll simply make more shows, further increasing margins. Look how many good shows and good actors are going to Amazon/Hulu/Netflix. Much less constrained creatively. I don't think they're in any danger of being acquired.
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If licensing fees for acquired programming get too high, the cost of creating owned programming will increase as well.

The price multiple is already very high... that's factoring in that profits are expected to rise. But where will Netflix grow revenue? Other companies selling content get more of their revenue from advertising and affiliate/viewer fees are a much smaller portion of their total revenue. Ancillary revenue is a distant 3rd.

Netflix could theoretically double it's subscriber count. The largest cable networks have about 100 million subs and Netflix has about half of that domestically, but will they ever be able to substantially increase monthly fees to their customer base?
 
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#41
#41
Biopsyman said:
Nice Snap back today
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Looks like the US markets will stay in this general range until actual changes start happening with tax reform. Hopefully both parties could agree that incentivizing US companies with stock piles of off shore cash to bring it home would be a good thing. Unfortunately the agenda of both parties is to make the other party look bad and fail... which isn't in the best interests of the country.
 
#42
#42
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Looks like the US markets will stay in this general range until actual changes start happening with tax reform. Hopefully both parties could agree that incentivizing US companies with stock piles of off shore cash to bring it home would be a good thing. Unfortunately the agenda of both parties is to make the other party look bad and fail... which isn't in the best interests of the country.
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Agr we.. until tax reform igains momentum... look for no real gains for the rest of the year.. even today lost steam into the close
 
#44
#44
Cumulus has been very interesting and has been making huge daily moves.

They own WIVK and the Sports Animal (or whatever they call it these days).

They are absolutely buried in debt. Something like a couple of BILLION dollars of debt while the market cap is less than $15 MILLION.

They are in danger of being delisted by NASDAQ because the share price is below $1.00 AND the market cap has been below their limit... it might be a $10,000,000 cut off, I forget.

So their ousted CEO/founder Lew Dickey has raised almost $200 million for a purchase of a yet to be determined company or companies. The IPO for his purchasing entity happened Friday before last and it closed early last week. For now it's being traded as MMDMU. It will convert to three separate securities in the near future. One for the stock of the purchase entity that will convert one-for-one into the planned company, a right for another share (actually I think it's 1/10th of a share) of the future company, and a warrant for an additional half share (1/20th iirc) at about a 25% premium. I may not have it exactly correct, but I think that for every 100 shares of MMDMU you are getting 110 shares of the future company plus a warrant for another 5 shares at something like $12,50/share.

I might nibble at MMDMU and trade CMLS if it comes back down.
 
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#45
#45
Anyone invest in cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, etc)?

I made a good sized bet on bitcoin almost exactly a year ago when it was at $560... very pleased right now =D
 
#46
#46
SWIL said:
Anyone invest in cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, etc)?

I made a good sized bet on bitcoin almost exactly a year ago when it was at $560... very pleased right now =D
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I've thought about it, but I don't understand the concept. So I've steered clear.
 
#47
#47
The OP's favorite Netflix just keeps on going. I have a hard time climbing on board when it's at 200x earnings and about 8x sales.
 
#48
#48
Late 20's guy here just starting in the investing world. Any advice? Have vanguard mutual funds in my Roth IRA. Believe I have around a 9% ROI on lifetime of the IRA (7 yearsish)
 
#49
#49
mgnelson88 said:
Late 20's guy here just starting in the investing world. Any advice? Have vanguard mutual funds in my Roth IRA. Believe I have around a 9% ROI on lifetime of the IRA (7 yearsish)
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Stay with Vanguard and keep studying. Do not get crazy with your Roth IRA... you have decades of tax free, compound growth ahead of you. Equities with dividends are your friend. If you nibble on a risky investment, do it outside of a retirement account so that when you lose your money you can write it off of your taxes.

Vanguard is great... they are a mutual company that is owned by the investors. If they make a profit (they're a not-for-profit, but they're allowed to be profitable) they put it back into the organization to reduce the fees they charge client/owners for their investments. I can't say enough good things about Vanguard.

If you get professional help, actually writing a check to a fee-only financial advisor is probably less expensive than going to a fancy broker that will bury their charges by taking huge cuts disguised as fees in their investment options. There's a fiduciary rule kicking in in a few weeks that will require RETIREMENT account advisors to act in the interests of the investors over their own interests. It's hard to believe that the financial industry has been able to skirt this requirement... it will be interesting to keep an eye on it.

Study the financial details. Know revenue, earnings, P/Es, DIVERSIFICATION, dividends, dividend coverage ratio, exchange traded securities, trading volume, market capitalization, and so on inside out. Learn all of the definitions in Investipedia. Read the Wall Street Journal/Barron's and Investors Budiness Daily. Be skeptical of Cramer/Mad Money, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, etc.. There are a lot of sheep in their flocks that get slaughtered. But it's good to watch and learn the language they speak.

Investing in what you know is a good idea. But don't get overweighted investing in your employer(s) stock. Enron employees that poured all of their own worth into Enron stock experienced an epic financial disaster.

The financial sector performs pretty well over time. XLF, as well as the other SPDR sector ETFs, are pretty safe investments as far as equities go.

Ask lots of questions. Watch out for slick guys. If anybody promises high returns in an investment... run away. They're crooks.
 
#50
#50
Also, land and metals don't generate revenue unless you're a developer or a miner. You won't get compound, exponential growth in those investments. Only diversification and hedging of your bets.
 
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