All things STOCKS

#576
#576
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I wasn't planning on timing. When I trade I'm am absolutely trying to time. But this is repositioning some funds for tax reasons. I held off on moving out of some equities because of a couple of really big down days on 10/4 and 10/5. But instead of a reversal, the next 3 weeks sent the US averages into the worst pull back in a decade. So then, because it's almost a wash, some funds are going to equities, some from equities to a guaranteed interest contract, I decided over last weekend to move ahead with the debt to equities side... and then boom! Monday was the best day for equities in a couple of years and then on Tuesday instead of giving some of the Monday gains back... equities had another very good up day. So yes, conventional wisdom is to not try to time markets with LT money, but it's also fundamental to not sell in a panic on declines. I have a window of several months, but I want to get it over with.

Since the earnings multiples are much more favorable today than they were 10 years ago, IMO this isn't going to be a prolonged pull back. BUT... and I know that this isn't the politics of investing thread, the election and the rhetoric being spewed by the Left is largely to blame for this retracement. There's the fear of jacking up corporate taxes, which would be insane since they are now in line with the rest of the first world countries instead of being the highest in the world. And the left can't help themselves from attacking Trump over his trade policy. China in no way can win a trade war with the US but they can use the critics on the Left to drag out the process. We're moving steel manufacturing away from China and back home while they're threatening to slap tariffs on soybeans. Good luck keeping a billion people fed without US AG imports. AND... minus services, it's about 4 to 1 China's exports to the US versus the US exports to China. Trump has all the cards. The only thing that he can't control is the timing.
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Yes... very good point.
 
#577
#577
Go aeiou said:
Nope, nothing that is published. In 2007, 2008 I was a real estate developer, and I had started a bank and was the chairman of the loan committee. I saw my residential lot sales go from a 15 year average of 25-30 per year to 18 in 2007. I sold stocks significantly that year. I sold 10 lots in 2008. Less than 10 total in 2009,10,11,12.

I was seeing people applying for loans to buy a home who had no business borrowing money. We sent them to Country Wide and other companies that would loan them money. Dumb me, I was asking how they could loan those people money. I felt like something was about to happen in housing. I didn't have any idea how enormous the problem was. So I sold about 40% of my stocks and stock funds in 2007. I haven't sold that much since. I bought back in after very significant drops, but not at the bottom. It is hard to watch your money deteriorate. I didn't panic, and 10 years later my money is worth several times what it was worth in 2007.

I guess my point is that I didn't know something was going to happen, but I was uncomfortable with the market.

I don't think technical indicators are reliable, and I'm not inclined to be a day trader. If you have something that is successful great. Do you ever just watch a stock for months/years and watch the movement??? I think you can tell when a large amount of stock of any company is being bought or sold . I guess that is volatility, but the swings are seldom more than 10% Most likely funds dressing up their holdings. It's an opportunity.

Simple reasoning has worked more than anything else for me, and that includes timing the market by a great margin. Simply, "what are we being told is going to happen in the near future, and not told by wall street. We were clearly told that drugs were rapidly changing. Biotech. They get bought. My largest holding for 10-11 years has been JNJ. Fairly safe. knock on wood. Other technology. I owned Apple, microsoft, etc.

I guess that is what works for me, although at 66 I am getting more defensive.

OTOH, I'm a CPA, and I understand financial statements. I don't think they are reliable. I thought Worldcom was going to be the survivor in the communications industry. I lost a ton of money on that one. When I first started investing in the late 70s I bought gold from a company in FL. They kept it in their vault, and gave the buyer a certificate. A few years later they found gold plated blocks of wood in their vault. It is good to not have much money when you are young and naive.

Sorry to get off topic. Good luck with you timing.
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Back when I had the time to day trade, BAC was my go to for day trading. Volatility was easy to track and time. FB, GOOG, and P were the other equities I'd day trade. I got into some 3x leveraged and inverse ETNs that track commodities like gold, silver, miners, and natural gas. Natural gas is where I ended up doing the very best. These days much of my trading is swing trading. Works very well in crypto where there is a lot of volatility.
 
#578
#578
GoVolsDR said:
Back when I had the time to day trade, BAC was my go to for day trading. Volatility was easy to track and time. FB, GOOG, and P were the other equities I'd day trade. I got into some 3x leveraged and inverse ETNs that track commodities like gold, silver, miners, and natural gas. Natural gas is where I ended up doing the very best. These days much of my trading is swing trading. Works very well in crypto where there is a lot of volatility.
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Interesting. It seems easy to make money in the market until something unexpected causes a severe downturn. I knew people who panicked and got our completely in 2008. they though they were doing the right thing. "get out now before I lose it all".
At my age capital preservation is important!:)
 
#579
#579
Go aeiou said:
Interesting. It seems easy to make money in the market until something unexpected causes a severe downturn. I knew people who panicked and got our completely in 2008. they though they were doing the right thing. "get out now before I lose it all".
At my age capital preservation is important!:)
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I totally get that, going the defensive route with your portfolio makes lots of sense when you hit certain market conditions. Minimize risk exposure, and manage your assets where you have lots of blue chip stocks, healthy bonds, and a combination of cash and commodities. While I firmly believe that the tech sector is overvalued, and has been for a long time, the fundamentals of the economy are strong. The immediate impact on share price is going to be the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates, and more than likely that happens next month.
 
#580
#580
GoVolsDR said:
I totally get that, going the defensive route with your portfolio makes lots of sense when you hit certain market conditions. Minimize risk exposure, and manage your assets where you have lots of blue chip stocks, healthy bonds, and a combination of cash and commodities. While I firmly believe that the tech sector is overvalued, and has been for a long time, the fundamentals of the economy are strong. The immediate impact on share price is going to be the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates, and more than likely that happens next month.
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I don't think that the entire tech sector is overvalued. IBM, AMAT, INTC, HPE, and AVGO are reasonable. AAPL is around 18x which I think is higher than it was not long ago. I think they sit on a boatload of cash, so it's considered fairly safe. But the Chinese consumer may not be buying as many iPhones right now. NVDA is at 30x.

A handful of huge market cap names skew the cap weighted indexes. CSCO, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN.
 
#581
#581
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I don't think that the entire tech sector is overvalued. IBM, AMAT, INTC, HPE, and AVGO are reasonable. AAPL is around 18x which I think is higher than it was not long ago. I think they sit on a boatload of cash, so it's considered fairly safe. But the Chinese consumer may not be buying as many iPhones right now. NVDA is at 30x.

A handful of huge market cap names skew the cap weighted indexes. CSCO, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN.
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Great post. My original statement could have used some nuance. Totally agree with your calls.

My call - keep shorting social media. These will eventually become zombie companies like MySpace. Keep shorting FB. Their share price got Zucced on Friday, and more worrying to me than EPS, is the fact that young people are abandoning FB in droves. Much like the MySpace user base went to other platforms, the same thing is happening to FB.
 
#582
#582
GoVolsDR said:
Great post. My original statement could have used some nuance. Totally agree with your calls.

My call - keep shorting social media. These will eventually become zombie companies like MySpace. Keep shorting FB. Their share price got Zucced on Friday, and more worrying to me than EPS, is the fact that young people are abandoning FB in droves. Much like the MySpace user base went to other platforms, the same thing is happening to FB.
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Ha, and we old folks are the only ones on FB any more. Well, I'm not, but dear wife is.
I don't short stocks, but social media changes fast.
 
#584
#584
I sure wouldn't short FB. Maybe buy some puts. They dominate online advertising along with GOOG and also have a lot of growth left with video. Some of the social media plays favored by the yutes are owned by the big boys. I forget which is which. Snapchat is/was independent.

I like FB, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, and maybe even Disney and MSFT's video models more than Netflix. I wouldn't short Netflix either though.
 
#585
#585
Facebook owns Instagram
Facebook owns WhatsApp

Verizon owns Tumblr (thru Yahoo)
Pinterest is private
Twitter owns Vine and Periscope
Google/Alphabet owns YouTube

Microsoft owns LinkedIn
Microsoft owns Skype

Reddit is private
Snapchat is a public company

IAC owns match.com and has controlling interest of Tinder
 
#586
#586
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Facebook owns Instagram
Facebook owns WhatsApp

Verizon owns Tumblr (thru Yahoo)
Pinterest is private
Twitter owns Vine and Periscope
Google/Alphabet owns YouTube

Microsoft owns LinkedIn
Microsoft owns Skype

Reddit is private
Snapchat is a public company

IAC owns match.com and has controlling interest of Tinder
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SNAP and TWTR are the social plays where I feel safest betting against these companies. SNAP can't monetize their platform properly, the user experience sucks since their redesign, and users are leaving the platform for IG. TWTR has pervasive issues with fake accounts and slowing use of the platform.

Totally agree about FB and GOOG. They're certainly advertising behemoths and can delivery consistent revenue streams. I see downside from FB due to slowing MAUs and younger demographics leaving for other platforms. With FB owning IG and WhatsApp, these are very important investments/hedges that have turned out very well for FB. I wouldn't mind taking out short positions against FB if I can find an inflection point based on technical analysis, with tight stop/losses and covers set. Puts would be a safer route to explore FB's downside. In the short term I'll keep an eye on GOOG up through their next earnings call.
 
#587
#587
Snap and Twitter might have less than ideal business models, but they will always be takeover candidates. Same with Fitbit and GoPro on the device side.
 
#588
#588
I'm not sure what's on the list of shorted holdings, but with Maxine Waters set to chair the House banking committee, FAZ might soar in 2019.
 
#590
#590
You guys might have discussed it and I just missed it, but is there an app you guys use for day trading? I'm looking to jump in.
 
#591
#591
Aavoxx said:
You guys might have discussed it and I just missed it, but is there an app you guys use for day trading? I'm looking to jump in.
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I don't know if anybody that posts is a true day trader. But most of the discount brokers have pretty robust websites with apps layered in. Investors Business Daily kind of focuses on trading from a technical viewpoint. Being an accountant, I'm far more fundamental myself.

I know that Ameritrade and Schwab have great websites. I'd think that Fidelity, e-trade, and Interactive Brokers would be good as well. I don't know if Scottrade still has a separate website now that Ameritrade has integrated it's purchase. If you're talking about true day-trading with hundreds of transactions everyday, I have no clue what apps are out there to facilitate that.

If I was day trading I'd sure look for a broker with the lowest transaction fees that also had a suitable platform. $3/trade versus $5/trade 50x or 100x a day make a big difference. Saving $2/trade 100x per day is about $50k/year.
 
#592
#592
BTW, if you trade, the securities with a lot of daily volume are best to focus on. The spreads are narrower, there's a larger market which helps traders unload if they want to close out long positions, and there should be more volatility within a narrower trading range which should offer more opportunities to jump in and out profitably.

You should also read up on how the time of day affects prices. Isn't 9:30-10:30 called "Amateur Hour"? Maybe 3:00 to 4:00 also.
 
#593
#593
Thunder Good-Oil said:
BTW, if you trade, the securities with a lot of daily volume are best to focus on. The spreads are narrower, there's a larger market which helps traders unload if they want to close out long positions, and there should be more volatility within a narrower trading range which should offer more opportunities to jump in and out profitably.

You should also read up on how the time of day affects prices. Isn't 9:30-10:30 called "Amateur Hour"? Maybe 3:00 to 4:00 also.
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I'm just looking to make a few extra dollars. Or try, anyway. I might be looking to lose a bunch of dollars figuring out what I'm doing. I have flexible job hours sometimes, so it gives me the opportunity to trade here and there. I'm mostly just interested in the day trader approach.

I read about amateur hour. Good info. i also ended up going with Ally.
 
#597
#597
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#598
#598
My favorite stock is the S&P 500 index fund. Since I watched the stock market climb like a banshee when Trump was elected I started dumping every stock I owned earlier this year
and put them into the S&P index and fixed income. Now granted I'm retired now but I read the tea leaves and saw this little tumble coming and didn't want my retirement to start out with a bomb.
I for once timed the market, although I wouldn't have done this if I was planning on working a few more years.
 
#599
#599
VolStrom said:
My favorite stock is the S&P 500 index fund. Since I watched the stock market climb like a banshee when Trump was elected I started dumping every stock I owned earlier this year
and put them into the S&P index and fixed income. Now granted I'm retired now but I read the tea leaves and saw this little tumble coming and didn't want my retirement to start out with a bomb.
I for once timed the market, although I wouldn't have done this if I was planning on working a few more years.
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I recently bought 3 Vanguard Funds:

VFIAX S&P 500
VDEQX Diversified Equity
VDADX Dividend Appreciation

I have started selling off some individual stocks and getting more into index funds.
 
#600
#600
Communication Services
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Financials

•money managers/banks/misc:
BLK Blackrock: It has pulled back a lot since Fidelity started promoting the zero fee ETFs.
IVZ Invesco (huge pullback, I'm going to have to check it out)
STT State Street
SCHW Schwab
IBKR Interactive Brokers
ALLY Ally Financial

•the huge banks/brokers with about a trillion or more of assets:
BAC
C
GS
JPM
WFC
MS

•credit cards/payment processors:
MA MasterCard
V Visa
COF Capital One
FDC First Data Corp
PYPL PayPal Holdings (but pretty expensive right now)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Healthcare
•MDT Medtronic
•JNJ Johnson and Johnson
•CVS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Industrials
Materials
Real Estate
Technology
Utilities
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

* Not necessasarily all are in the S&P 500

I like the S&P 500 universe since there's less chance of fraud (theft of corporate assets) material enough to crash the stock, ownership (voting) is less concentrated, executive compensation won't be a huge percentage of revenues.

I like funds, especially ETFs, but unfortunately the worst companies in the index or sector are included and can dilute the results. But there is safety and management fees can be very reasonable for non-actively managed funds.
 
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