All things STOCKS

#8,353
#8,353
Kingston Vol said:
The reasoning doesn't seem to make any sense and that has me worried. Another big stimulus is coming though so we'll ride the wave back up.
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The speed of the move higher in rates is an excuse (and a good one) to take profits. Everybody keeps talking about "the reopening trade" as though it began within the last few weeks; IMO, that trade has been going on the last several months. Take a stock like DAL - it rallied from 30 to 43 from October to December, then consolidated for a bit, and has rallied from 37.50 to 50 over the last few weeks. Similar deal with CCL, MAR, and a bunch of the travel-related names.

I'm not sure why only the move from 37.50 to 50 is called "the reopening trade;" that trade has been occurring since last fall in my estimation. The move up in rates also started last fall (we went from 60 bps to 90 bps in the 10y from October to November). Once the vaccine emerged, it became easier to figure out when things were going to open up again.
 
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#8,354
#8,354
05_never_again said:
The speed of the move higher in rates is an excuse (and a good one) to take profits. Everybody keeps talking about "the reopening trade" as though it began within the last few weeks; IMO, that trade has been going on the last several months. Take a stock like DAL - it rallied from 30 to 43 from October to December, then consolidated for a bit, and has rallied from 37.50 to 50 over the last few weeks. Similar deal with CCL, MAR, and a bunch of the travel-related names.

I'm not sure why only the move from 37.50 to 50 is called "the reopening trade;" that trade has been occurring since last fall in my estimation. The move up in rates also started last fall (we went from 60 bps to 90 bps in the 10y from October to November). Once the vaccine emerged, it became easier to figure out when things were going to open up again.
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I guess we're waiting for those stocks to surpass pre-COVID prices before we say we're "back", at least from a stock market perspective. It seems like there is also a sense that the "recovery" - as far as it is or isn't from a stock market perspective - isn't based on any hard evidence yet.
 
#8,355
#8,355
Kingston Vol said:
I guess we're waiting for those stocks to surpass pre-COVID prices before we say we're "back", at least from a stock market perspective. It seems like there is also a sense that the "recovery" - as far as it is or isn't from a stock market perspective - isn't based on any hard evidence yet.
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I think the recovery to a pre-COVID level of activity is pretty much borne out by the evidence; it's the gains (and in some names, huge gains) beyond that that are questionable.

Take a stock like TXRH. One of many examples I could pick. It's pre-COVID high was 72, fell to 25 during the panic. It was back at 72 by October, and I can buy why the stock should be around that level today. However, the stock closed today at 91 and has traded as high as 96 during the last few days. The market is saying that not only has the company recovered, but it should be priced 25% higher than it was pre-pandemic. That second part is the stretch for me, and you can apply that logic to the market as a whole as well. The S&P is 13% above the pre-pandemic high. If we pulled back to the pre-pandemic high, I'm sure a bunch of talking heads on TV would be losing their s**t, talking about a recession or another bear market, but I think that would be perfectly normal and still within the bounds of a longer-term uptrend.
 
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#8,356
#8,356
05_never_again said:
I think the recovery to a pre-COVID level of activity is pretty much borne out by the evidence; it's the gains (and in some names, huge gains) beyond that that are questionable.

Take a stock like TXRH. One of many examples I could pick. It's pre-COVID high was 72, fell to 25 during the panic. It was back at 72 by October, and I can buy why the stock should be around that level today. However, the stock closed today at 91 and has traded as high as 96 during the last few days. The market is saying that not only has the company recovered, but it should be priced 25% higher than it was pre-pandemic. That second part is the stretch for me, and you can apply that logic to the market as a whole as well. The S&P is 13% above the pre-pandemic high. If we pulled back to the pre-pandemic high, I'm sure a bunch of talking heads on TV would be losing their s**t, talking about a recession or another bear market, but I think that would be perfectly normal and still within the bounds of a longer-term uptrend.
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Always enjoy your posts, especially as a reminder to hold my cash. There's going to be a major sell-off, not the least of which will be spurred on by pundits and talking heads who will panic a ton of retail investors.
 
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#8,357
#8,357
05_never_again said:
I think the recovery to a pre-COVID level of activity is pretty much borne out by the evidence; it's the gains (and in some names, huge gains) beyond that that are questionable.

Take a stock like TXRH. One of many examples I could pick. It's pre-COVID high was 72, fell to 25 during the panic. It was back at 72 by October, and I can buy why the stock should be around that level today. However, the stock closed today at 91 and has traded as high as 96 during the last few days. The market is saying that not only has the company recovered, but it should be priced 25% higher than it was pre-pandemic. That second part is the stretch for me, and you can apply that logic to the market as a whole as well. The S&P is 13% above the pre-pandemic high. If we pulled back to the pre-pandemic high, I'm sure a bunch of talking heads on TV would be losing their s**t, talking about a recession or another bear market, but I think that would be perfectly normal and still within the bounds of a longer-term uptrend.
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Case by case. The well capitalized restaurants might be better off in the long haul as many independents closed down and therefore there’s less competition.
 
#8,358
#8,358
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Case by case. The well capitalized restaurants might be better off in the long haul as many independents closed down and therefore there’s less competition.
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They've all kind of behaved the same way though in terms of price action. To varying extents, almost all of them have exceeded the pre-pandemic high from last February. DIN is an exception, RRGB is an exception (which wasn't in great shape pre-COVID).
 
#8,359
#8,359
volsarelife1 said:
GMEV, ARST, IGPK, PHIL, APTY, ILUS. Some of my next big OTC winners
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Since I went to swing trading in OTC a few years ago I'll never do anything else.


ILUS now went up over 12,000% since this post
GMEV went up over 200%
IGPK went up over 100%
APTY went up over 500%
PHIL went up over 3000%
 
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#8,360
#8,360
05_never_again said:
They've all kind of behaved the same way though in terms of price action. To varying extents, almost all of them have exceeded the pre-pandemic high from last February. DIN is an exception, RRGB is an exception (which wasn't in great shape pre-COVID).
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They are also building a carry out model. Pre-pandemic I doubt that there was anywhere close to the steady stream of Door Dash and other drivers that hit every established restaurant chain. Chipotle now asks me if mine is a personal order or if I’m a driver. I really don’t know why it matters... just give me the dang food.
 
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#8,361
#8,361
Kingston Vol said:
The reasoning doesn't seem to make any sense and that has me worried. Another big stimulus is coming though so we'll ride the wave back up.
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Yep. Just got to look at it like a video game anymore. The richest people in the world have their money invested in the market... They are used to getting their way..

Maybe back around 3500 on s&p and 12000 on nasdaq just looking at weekly... who knows, could be new highs tomorrow...
 
#8,364
#8,364
volsarelife1 said:
Since I went to swing trading in OTC a few years ago I'll never do anything else.


ILUS now went up over 12,000% since this post
GMEV went up over 200%
IGPK went up over 100%
APTY went up over 500%
PHIL went up over 3000%
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May I ask how you found these so early...certain site you use, networking, etc. I just bought some APTY earlier this week. Needless to say it is now less than my buy in cost
 
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#8,369
#8,369
mrorange211 said:
Fertilizer producer in Tampa. Trade commission announced that Morocco and Russia had unfair subsidies on their phosphate. They are expected to remove those subsidies on March 26th giving Americans companies, of which MOS is one of the biggest, much more leverage in the American ag sector. I don't like commodities much but have a invested heavily and will keep doing so.
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WTO ruling?
 
#8,372
#8,372
I just rolled a RKT covered call to keep from losing it. I probably acted too soon, but it was only 50 cents. I rolled it to next week at $24. The nice thing about Rocket is not these variations in price. The nice thing is making 1% a week selling covered calls. Every once in a while it does this and pumps option prices for you. Earnings of course you get the super-pump on option prices.

Here's something else to look at. I don't know much about swing trading, I admit it. IIPR is a REIT that tries to specialize in CBD outlets. Trades at very high P/E for a reit but big growth. Announced earnings yesterday and down about 20% now.
 
#8,374
#8,374
Velo Vol said:
WTO ruling?
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USITC Today's drop in MOS is a gift, imo.
Kingston Vol said:
What is the attraction to CLOV? I see people talking about it all the time, but no one can answer that question. It always comes back to the CEO.
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Chamath Palihapitiya is involved, and it will take SOFI investing public. I don't likevvery speculative investments (CCIV, for example), but I think Chamath Palihapitiya is the next titan of finance. So I bought 100 shares for the LT.
 
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#8,375
#8,375
CARV is a savings and loans company that largely exists in minority communities in New York. JP Morgan just recently bought up tons of shares. Why? This stock seems to go nowhere. Simple answer: Biden will prioritize economic benefits to minority communities, and will use CARV as a distributor of economic stimulus. When you check the order flow, someone is amassing a massive stake in the company.....tons of 20,000 shares and 10,000 orders in the last two trading days. I think it's about to rocket due to political and financial variables.
 
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