All things STOCKS

#826
#826
05_never_again said:
That's why you don't touch the stock with a 10 foot pole. I get the appeal of fake meat generally and certainly think that's here to stay. However, in the case of Beyond Meat (or any individual company in that business), I don't see what the barriers to entry are. I know they are thought to have the superior product, but it isn't like it's some big secret how to make these things. It can be imitated, and I see that market becoming extremely competitive. Margin compression over time. It's like Blue Apron. I get the appeal of their service, but there was nothing to prevent another provider or even an existing big box retailer from simply copying the idea. All it is is ingredients packaged in a box in the right portions and delivered to your door. Nothing proprietary about it, no barriers to entry.
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Recipes actually are proprietary. And those two are kind of creating their own barrier to entry by obtaining scale so quickly. Kellogg's has had Morningstar Farms and Kraft has had Boca in the veggie burger space for quite a while now. Morningstar has even been in Burger King for over a decade with the BK Veggie. The difference here seems to be Beyond's and Impossible's management. Their execution and marketing has been spot on. Kellogg's and Kraft have just lazily purchased Morningstar and Boca without doing much to change consumer behavior. B&I have been targeting meat eaters with taste and texture and are appealing to vegans more so than vegetarians. Morningstar isn't vegan and vegetarians are moving away from dairy and eggs.

Wendy's is looking into plant protein. McDonald's is kind of set in their ways, but if somebody lands an exclusive agreement with them their sales will quickly be in the billions. However, Impossible's and Beyond's products aren't inexpensive right now. That could limit their success at McD's, but longer term you'd have to think that putting peas and soy beans into an entree has to be easier than growing animals to do the same. Beyond and Impossible are establishing the necessary scale to compete with existing animal based diets and to keep competition from emerging.

Still... 100x sales is crazy. They are creating an industry that will touch a lot of customers and create a lot of jobs, but other than traders, new equity buyers will have a long wait to become wealthy by just buying and holding those stocks.
 
#828
#828
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Recipes actually are proprietary. And those two are kind of creating their own barrier to entry by obtaining scale so quickly. Kellogg's has had Morningstar Farms and Kraft has had Boca in the veggie burger space for quite a while now. Morningstar has even been in Burger King for over a decade with the BK Veggie. The difference here seems to be Beyond's and Impossible's management. Their execution and marketing has been spot on. Kellogg's and Kraft have just lazily purchased Morningstar and Boca without doing much to change consumer behavior. B&I have been targeting meat eaters with taste and texture and are appealing to vegans more so than vegetarians. Morningstar isn't vegan and vegetarians are moving away from dairy and eggs.

Wendy's is looking into plant protein. McDonald's is kind of set in their ways, but if somebody lands an exclusive agreement with them their sales will quickly be in the billions. However, Impossible's and Beyond's products aren't inexpensive right now. That could limit their success at McD's, but longer term you'd have to think that putting peas and soy beans into an entree has to be easier than growing animals to do the same. Beyond and Impossible are establishing the necessary scale to compete with existing animal based diets and to keep competition from emerging.

Still... 100x sales is crazy. They are creating an industry that will touch a lot of customers and create a lot of jobs, but other than traders, new equity buyers will have a long wait to become wealthy by just buying and holding those stocks.
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Yes, their particular recipe is, but it can be imitated. Once the big boys (Kellogg's, etc.) start getting serious about this because they see that the fake meat trend is here to stay, I see that market getting ultra-competitive and commodotized.

Once all the shorts throw in the towel and momentum starts to wane (i.e., sales remain strong but it missed some insane expectation from the Street), the stock will likely implode.
 
#829
#829
05_never_again said:
Yes, their particular recipe is, but it can be imitated. Once the big boys (Kellogg's, etc.) start getting serious about this because they see that the fake meat trend is here to stay, I see that market getting ultra-competitive and commodotized.

Once all the shorts throw in the towel and momentum starts to wane (i.e., sales remain strong but it missed some insane expectation from the Street), the stock will likely implode.
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Their stocks won't necessarily implode. Kellogg's and Kraft have been in the space longer than these 2 companies have existed. They've neglected the opportunity and Millenials won't necessarily throw their purchasing at the established corporations if they decide to up their game. The coming generations of consumers are far more informed than the previous ones.

100x sales is rich, but food is a multi-trillion dollar industry. Beyond's revenues are still tiny at $100mm and they're growing more than 100% annually. I think that the story here is the quality of management to this point. There are plenty of Mom and Pop vegan and vegetarian operations that have been around for a long time that have never created a buzz. Tofurky revenue is already a fraction of these guy's. Amy's is private and their products are overpriced. Management for B&I seem focused and are executing. They aren't just hippies that stumbled into this.

Even if BYND looks like a no-brainer short at 100x revenue and 4x or 5x the IPO pricing, markets don't always act predictably.

Right now there are limited shares to short. If the stock(s) prices hang on through the insider's lock-up period then valuations could get even greater. I'm not buying, but I wouldn't short either.
 
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#830
#830
Big Gucci Sosa said:
What type is it? I'm trying to work my way towards there. Hopefully have 4-5 by 40.
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I took a little different route. Mine is a single family home in Cali that I lived in for a few years while fixing it up. Moved away and now I rent it out. Use it mostly for appreciation and tax deduction purposes. Interest rate on my 30-yr fixed is very low so that helps a bit. I will probably not move beyond 1 property as I'm just trying to maximize the use of the VA loan where I was able to buy a 530k house for 0% down and no PMI. I prefer to put the rest of my money in the market.
 
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#831
#831
We're seeing the formation of a new pattern on the daily for Bitcoin. There has been support consistently holding when BTC goes back under 9k. The selling action stops, oscilators change, momentum go back to the bulls, and then the buying picks back up. Classic XABCD trade setup.
 
#833
#833
Favorite high yield dividend stocks currently? What are the high dividend stocks you’re holding long term?

Thoughts on Exxon or BP at current prices?
 
#836
#836
Freak said:
Favorite high yield dividend stocks currently? What are the high dividend stocks you’re holding long term?

Thoughts on Exxon or BP at current prices?
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My sneaky dividend play right now is MCD. 2.13 doesn't qualify as high yield, but I think they have plenty of runway to grow the dividend over the coming years as the market faces headwinds. They are trading near all time highs, but they're performance during the last recession is worth looking at. Nobody can call the top, but we are in an aging bull market. MCD chart in 2008-2009 is impressive, and people will still go to McDonald's when the economy weakens.

It may also be worth checking out VDIGX.

Redirect Notice
 
#837
#837
Short duration corporate bond funds might be the place to hide right now. Putnam's over 2%. Actually 2.4%, but I don't know if that's reflective of the last quarter point cut.
 
#840
#840
TheColdVolTruth said:
My sneaky dividend play right now is MCD. 2.13 doesn't qualify as high yield, but I think they have plenty of runway to grow the dividend over the coming years as the market faces headwinds. They are trading near all time highs, but they're performance during the last recession is worth looking at. Nobody can call the top, but we are in an aging bull market. MCD chart in 2008-2009 is impressive, and people will still go to McDonald's when the economy weakens.

It may also be worth checking out VDIGX.

Redirect Notice
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McDonald’s has had quite the run for sure.
 
#841
#841
Big Gucci Sosa said:
Time to research the 2000 recession. Should be similar when it comes
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Look for death crosses on the securities or markets you're tracking. If you're making moving average plays, keep an eye on the oscillators. If you see negative momentum picking up, and the short term MA descending, you may want to take a bearish position (take a short position or look for a reversal trend and go long).
 
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#842
#842
I hear over and over that McDonald's is now more of a real estate play than restaurants. They own property along every stretch if high value commercial property all over the world.

Exxon is the largest oil refiner in the world. You won't get obscenely wealthy owning it, but it's as close to a guaranteed long term above average investment as there is.

Financials and Healthcare are my 2 favorite sectors. There are a lot of cheap financial stocks right now. Healthcare has decades of favorable demographics. Tech sector does real well, but over the last few decades many of the leading companies can quickly go away. Novell used to dominate networks (it took me a minute to recall what LAN stood for). Remember Netscape dominating web browsers? Microsoft pretty much wiped out Novell and Netscape. I've owned AKAM for years and whenever I worry about keeping it, I look at the details and decide that it's got room to run with a nice dividend and reasonable valuation (P/E ratio).

Consumer Discretionary and Staples have held up pretty well. Maybe a little late and expensive to hide there with an economic pullback.

Industrials and Materials probably are at risk. Although CAT has already taken a beating with most of their revenue coming from outside of the USA. Defense will hold up though.

Real Estate should be a decent sector. Commercial has already been hammered by the Amazon effect. Residential benefits from Millennial generation's preference to rent. Warehousing and distribution facilities are doing well with high demand (Amazon and other online purchasing effect). Senior Living facilities. REITs might be the place to invest for a while.

Energy sector has already been beaten up and looks good... even with a pause from an eventual recession.

Utility sector is boring. Almost like bonds. But I do like Dominion Energy.
 
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#845
#845
Has anyone read Harry Markopolos’s report about GE’s accounting and their long term care liabilities? I don’t own shares in GE, but the author casts doubt about their solvency. Below is his link to the report, you have to provide an email so just use your spam email if you want to read it.

www.GEfraud.com
 
#846
#846
ARDX is my latest speculative muse. I got a few thousand shares a couple of weeks ago in low 2.40's. They have several catalysts prior to eoy beginning next month. I expect some extreme volatility for this ticker over the next few months.
 
#847
#847
Walt Disney spokesperson said that “This former employee, who was fired for cause, has persistently made patently false claims for over two years. The claims she made to the company were thoroughly investigated and found to be utterly baseless. It is unfortunate that MarketWatch, which has been aware of the facts for months, knowingly and deliberately chose to give Ms. Kuba’s unfounded claims a platform.”
 
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