All things STOCKS

#10,276
#10,276
Velo Vol said:
If you're in the mood for a downer . . .

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Watching him now on Bloomberg. Total buzz kill, but how many of us on this board have been beating the drum about our debt/gdp ratio and artificially low rates. We needed to do something long before now. We’re hooked on the Fed’s version of crack.
 
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#10,277
#10,277
BigOrangeMojo said:
A lot of similarities to T. They don't have the stupid acquisitions like T but neither company had the foresight to see changes in their industries (INTC with doubling down on desktops and T being slow to joining the 21st century)
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I took a position in T on its big pullback as a value play, although I know the dividend will get cut when they complete the spinoff/merger of Time Warner with Discovery. Yield will be around 5% ish after they figure out the spin-off and shares assignment of DISCA to stockholders. Really not interested in taking the DISCA shares, but seems like a smart move for T to focus on its core business. Should benefit from the 5G rollout, a huge customer base and retaining HBO Max. DISCA would do well to can CNN. JMO.
 
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#10,278
#10,278
Vol737 said:
Watching him now on Bloomberg. Total buzz kill, but how many of us on this board have been beating the drum about our debt/gdp ratio and artificially low rates. We needed to do something long before now. We’re hooked on the Fed’s version of crack.
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What's interesting about Grantham's thesis is that most of what he talks about being in a bubble...crypto, high growth but still unprofitable tech, etc., is already down 50-80% from the highs. He's absolutely right that the existence and price appreciation of something like dogecoin is the epitome of speculative behavior. Dogecoin is also down 80% from its high and is probably going to zero. Haven't we already seen the bursting of most of the bubbles he's talking about?

I don't really see the argument for a 50% decline in the S&P based purely on valuation. Outside of another financial crisis (which I didn't hear him call for) I don't really see how we get there. It's overvalued on the basis of most traditional metrics, but not quite 1999/2000 overvalued.
 
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#10,279
#10,279
05_never_again said:
What's interesting about Grantham's thesis is that most of what he talks about being in a bubble...crypto, high growth but still unprofitable tech, etc., is already down 50-80% from the highs. He's absolutely right that the existence and price appreciation of something like dogecoin is the epitome of speculative behavior. Dogecoin is also down 80% from its high and is probably going to zero. Haven't we already seen the bursting of most of the bubbles he's talking about?

I don't really see the argument for a 50% decline in the S&P based purely on valuation. Outside of another financial crisis (which I didn't hear him call for) I don't really see how we get there. It's overvalued on the basis of most traditional metrics, but not quite 1999/2000 overvalued.
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Agree, I just think he will see another leg down and/or we just put up with this volatility for a while. No big deal, we’ve seen it before. He’s the only one I’ve heard calling for this depression like pullback. Would a 20-30% pullback from our highs on the Dow surprise me? Not really. I’m in a lot of cash now so I’m watching and waiting.

I do think we struggle with supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, etc. until we get a handle on our Debt/GDP and these rate increases take effect. Man, crypto…gotta be honest, I have yet to really wrap my mind around this. Agree, speculative as it comes and central banks really starting to take action on regulation, etc. Why would central banks give up something they can control such as a hard currency? I have no idea where this ends up. Steering clear of that space. I know some people have made a bunch of money, it’s just not for me.
 
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#10,280
#10,280
Vol737 said:
Agree, I just think he will see another leg down and/or we just put up with this volatility for a while. No big deal, we’ve seen it before. He’s the only one I’ve heard calling for this depression like pullback. Would a 20-30% pullback from our highs on the Dow surprise me? Not really. I’m in a lot of cash now so I’m watching and waiting.

I do think we struggle with supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, etc. until we get a handle on our Debt/GDP and these rate increases take effect. Man, crypto…gotta be honest, I have yet to really wrap my mind around this. Agree, speculative as it comes and central banks really starting to take action on regulation, etc. Why would central banks give up something they can control such as a hard currency? I have no idea where this ends up. Steering clear of that space. I know some people have made a bunch of money, it’s just not for me.
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The most underpriced risk within crypto, and it's been this way from the very beginning, is regulatory risk. Most of the crypto community (which doesn't really do any analysis or research, it's mostly a fan club) thinks that the powers that be can't or won't regulate it. I think they are wrong.
 
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#10,281
#10,281
05_never_again said:
The most underpriced risk within crypto, and it's been this way from the very beginning, is regulatory risk. Most of the crypto community (which doesn't really do any analysis or research, it's mostly a fan club) thinks that the powers that be can't or won't regulate it. I think they are wrong.
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Not only are they wrong, but they will be broke AND wrong.
 
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#10,282
#10,282
05_never_again said:
I don't really see the argument for a 50% decline in the S&P based purely on valuation. Outside of another financial crisis (which I didn't hear him call for) I don't really see how we get there. It's overvalued on the basis of most traditional metrics, but not quite 1999/2000 overvalued.
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Right. There are issues, no doubt, but I think his downside prediction is too extreme. On a podcast last week they pulled up some of his old calls and he sounded pretty dire in 2013, etc.
 
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#10,288
#10,288
Rocky_Top_Vol13 said:
I did pretty well yesterday. Mind you I'm still small potatoes by just about everyone's account, but still a win is a win.
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Oh I was so crushed in my techs it'll take a lil minute for me to catch up with anybody 😂 even if we go on a run. Absolutely a win is a win. Slow and steady. Don't panic and don't get cocky. Steady. Biggest opponent is our own emotions.
 
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#10,292
#10,292
Well, it appears they didn't sell enough in January to even cancel out december. That's pretty dull.

Buying the dip is either competent or incompetent, I guess. I do think people are a lot braver now. People have been saying to buy the dip for 20 years and investors believe it. So partly, in my opinion, it's retail investor competence. But partly it's also naivety.

The bears may have their day, but after getting positively waxed for a decade, they look pretty ragged..
 
#10,296
#10,296
Rocky_Top_Vol13 said:
If you had one or two nuggets of wisdom for novice investors concerning exponential returns and compound growth, what would they be?
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1. The Rule of 72: Time to Money to Double = (72/Rate of Return). If you earn 10% compounded annually, it takes 7.2 years to double. If you earn 10% not compounded annually, it takes 10 years to double.

Example: You invest $1,000 when you turn 21. You get 10% compounded return for the next 29 years until you turn 50. By the time you turn 50, your money will double 4x. You will have $16,000.
 
#10,297
#10,297
Majors said:
Invest more when the market is low
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#10,299
#10,299
BigOrangeMojo said:
All kidding aside, when people are panic fleeing the market, that is usually the best time to get in. Everyone who invested in March-early April 2020 made a ton of $$$.
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Absolutely. Put another 2% on my 401K last week just to take advantage of the rebound.
 
#10,300
#10,300
BigOrangeMojo said:
All kidding aside, when people are panic fleeing the market, that is usually the best time to get in. Everyone who invested in March-early April 2020 made a ton of $$$.
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Yep, easier said than done though. I knew people in their 50s that panicked and sold in the 08-10 depression. Their attitude was "I'm getting out while I still have something". Their attitude should have been "buy today while everything is down". And if it went down more buy even more. If it went up slightly buy more.
In the long term the markets direction is up,up,up. 1929 took a very long time to recover though.
 
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