All things STOCKS

#10,353
#10,353
Carp said:
And first buy of the year is gonna be INTC. I like Disney a lot too, but the dividend is too good to pass up here imo, particularly with the ex div date coming up.
Click to expand...


DIS up 10.7% from this post (was up bigger PM today). INTC doing well for me, but not +10% well.
 
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#10,354
#10,354
All this stuff just seems so random. Micron is up from 81 to 94 in three days. No news. The company IPO'd in 1985. It's not like people just figured out who they were. $100 billion market cap.

Heck, it's almost as high as it was 22 years ago.

I changed my chip stocks a little bit. I bought good ol' texas instruments as a result of an inexplicable plunge on February 4th and I had to sell a lot of other stuff to afford it.

So currently:
AMAT
MU
UCTT
TXN

I can't get a handle on the volatility. Plus, if I buy a call, it goes down. If I sell a call, it goes up and ITM on Wednesday. If I roll the call, it goes down $20 a share on Thursday. I have been trying to "tune" myself properly on this for 2 months, no joke. Every options decision I made on these stocks, it went the wrong way every single time.
 
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#10,355
#10,355
Firebirdparts said:
Every options decision I made on these stocks, it went the wrong way every single time.
Click to expand...

I have the same super power betting the over/under on college basketball games. every. single. time.

By the way, I'm up 45% in MOS and it's LTCG as of last week. And if memory serves, I think I have you to thank for that :)
 
#10,356
#10,356
Ha ha. Somebody before me mentioned that in here. Thunder? Was a nice reenrty point a few weeks back but l don’t have any.
 
#10,357
#10,357
Firebirdparts said:
I can't get a handle on the volatility. Plus, if I buy a call, it goes down. If I sell a call, it goes up and ITM on Wednesday. If I roll the call, it goes down $20 a share on Thursday. I have been trying to "tune" myself properly on this for 2 months, no joke. Every options decision I made on these stocks, it went the wrong way every single time.
Click to expand...

Okay so we got a great example here in progress. I deliberately am trying to second guess myself. Chose MU to try to do it "wrong". Chose TXN to try to play it "safe".
........... Monday Wednesday Today
TXN.......170...............176.........170
MU..........80................88............91

I sold a TXN call at 175, and a MU call at 90. On wednesday, I was in trouble on TXN. Today, yippee, I got a chance and rolled it this morning (it now expires on 2/18, a week away), now it's closed $5 out of the money if I had done nothing. Part of my problem is that I keep trying to make it come out the way I want it, and I should be satisfied just wheeling these stocks. The options are pretty expensive and wheeling would be fine. If I were happy with that, then I would be pleasantly surprised every Friday as the stock moves $20 to save my position after I've already spent money to get out of it.

For those of you that don't deal with option prices, i apologize. Don't start now.
 
#10,358
#10,358
Firebirdparts said:
Okay so we got a great example here in progress. I deliberately am trying to second guess myself. Chose MU to try to do it "wrong". Chose TXN to try to play it "safe".
........... Monday Wednesday Today
TXN.......170...............176.........170
MU..........80................88............91

I sold a TXN call at 175, and a MU call at 90. On wednesday, I was in trouble on TXN. Today, yippee, I got a chance and rolled it this morning (it now expires on 2/18, a week away), now it's closed $5 out of the money if I had done nothing. Part of my problem is that I keep trying to make it come out the way I want it, and I should be satisfied just wheeling these stocks. The options are pretty expensive and wheeling would be fine. If I were happy with that, then I would be pleasantly surprised every Friday as the stock moves $20 to save my position after I've already spent money to get out of it.

For those of you that don't deal with option prices, i apologize. Don't start now.
Click to expand...

Most options expire worthless. I guess the Wall Street crooks are trying to figure out how to routinely rip off the covered call writers now as well.
 
#10,359
#10,359
Firebirdparts said:
All this stuff just seems so random. Micron is up from 81 to 94 in three days. No news. The company IPO'd in 1985. It's not like people just figured out who they were. $100 billion market cap.

Heck, it's almost as high as it was 22 years ago.

I changed my chip stocks a little bit. I bought good ol' texas instruments as a result of an inexplicable plunge on February 4th and I had to sell a lot of other stuff to afford it.

So currently:
AMAT
MU
UCTT
TXN

I can't get a handle on the volatility. Plus, if I buy a call, it goes down. If I sell a call, it goes up and ITM on Wednesday. If I roll the call, it goes down $20 a share on Thursday. I have been trying to "tune" myself properly on this for 2 months, no joke. Every options decision I made on these stocks, it went the wrong way every single time.
Click to expand...
Good mix. I don't see how we can go wrong with chips in the long run.

I have:
NVDA
ASML
ON

I "should have" taken profits in late '21 and bought back at the bottom (whenever that is), but seriously I find it hard enough to pick the right company once. Buying, selling, rebuying needs me to make 3 correct calls! Also I don't want to give up my earliest shares.

I need to learn the art of trimming.

I sold LRCX to buy AMD and AMAT "too late." But being under the water on this pair, given the long view, is not bothering me.

A lot of people like TXN as s dividend stock.

Micron was the last one to the party, I think. Last year all of them were roaring (pretty nearly) and MU was flat. Most recently it's taking its turn?
 
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#10,361
#10,361
Orange. said:
Bro, give us a shout out earlier. I bought one share today to watch while I research it. Is this a short term thing or LTBH?
Click to expand...

I would think that the upside is capped as a potential takeover target. It’s also a punchline by the fashionistas. Personally I’d be inclined to take profits on any run up and maybe trade it as it bounces around. No LTBH for me unless they were to rebrand the company and diversify the revenue stream. I bet that PE takes it private if the sales don’t tank.
 
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#10,364
#10,364
Orange. said:
Bro, give us a shout out earlier. I bought one share today to watch while I research it. Is this a short term thing or LTBH?
Click to expand...

Semi long term. It has been a very strong play Ive watched for a couple of years. Ive been in and out of it a few times and have taken nice profits each time. I could see it getting back up to the $150-$160 range.
 
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#10,368
#10,368
Velo Vol said:
How much bigger? Across the entire market?
Click to expand...
If they invaded over the weekend, I bet the major indexes would gap down 3-4%, oil goes well over $100.

Then it probably leads to a retest of the lows from 1/24, which could have happened anyway even if Russia didn't invade.
 
#10,370
#10,370
Firebirdparts said:
Okay so we got a great example here in progress. I deliberately am trying to second guess myself. Chose MU to try to do it "wrong". Chose TXN to try to play it "safe".
........... Monday Wednesday Today
TXN.......170...............176.........170
MU..........80................88............91

I sold a TXN call at 175, and a MU call at 90. On wednesday, I was in trouble on TXN. Today, yippee, I got a chance and rolled it this morning (it now expires on 2/18, a week away), now it's closed $5 out of the money if I had done nothing. Part of my problem is that I keep trying to make it come out the way I want it, and I should be satisfied just wheeling these stocks. The options are pretty expensive and wheeling would be fine. If I were happy with that, then I would be pleasantly surprised every Friday as the stock moves $20 to save my position after I've already spent money to get out of it.

For those of you that don't deal with option prices, i apologize. Don't start now.
Click to expand...
Okay, here's the update:

.......... Monday Wednesday Thursday Friday
TXN.......170...............176.........170.........164
MU..........80................88............91..........89.76

So against all odds I have just let my MU short 90 call survive, and that's okay now. I pulled up a 3 months chart on MU. there are 13 weeks visible. Of the 13 weeks, there's a peak on Wednesday 8 weeks. There are a couple of other weeks where you aren't hurt by assuming that. There is one week where it just went up up; one week with a spike on Friday. 13 weeks is a logn time.
 
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#10,371
#10,371
RKT headed south ? Other mortgage lenders should also experience lower income.
rising mortgage rates mean fewer mortgages. Initially people jump in and buy before the rates go up again. But soon thereafter the higher payments caused by higher interest rates make it harder to buy a home.
How long and how high??
 
#10,373
#10,373
Go aeiou said:
RKT headed south ? Other mortgage lenders should also experience lower income.
rising mortgage rates mean fewer mortgages. Initially people jump in and buy before the rates go up again. But soon thereafter the higher payments caused by higher interest rates make it harder to buy a home.
How long and how high??
Click to expand...

Haven't traded RKT since it dipped below $15. I do like the company, but as you said, there are lot of red flags in the market right now for mortgage companies. I'll wait till it trades sideways for a few months before I jump in. It's in a hard 4 month decline at the moment.
 
#10,374
#10,374
When to buy bonds? Predicting interest rate movement is harder than stocks.
It appears that rates are going to continue to rise, but ...
 
#10,375
#10,375
Dunno about RKT. It's "lower than it was" but that's about all I can say. Lots of competition in that market. The expectation, right or wrong, is decreasing earnings for now. Trailing P/E is 4. That's pretty low.

So all my "trick you" stocks are up 4% today. Let's just presume that there's a big peak on Wednesday this week and see what happens.
 
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