All things STOCKS

[BigOrangeMojo]

Only person to lose more money than Cathie this year is Zuck from that stupid ass Meta idea....

 

[Jax_Vol]

Wood took a big ride with TSLA.

Most of her picks are not real well known, low earnings/high growth long shots. They’ll outperform once the markets turn positive.

She takes some huge swings at them. When swinging for fences, maybe you just need to connect one in ten times….?

 

[Jax_Vol]

Only person to lose more money than Cathie this year is Zuck from that stupid ass Meta idea....

Elon lost a chunk in last few weeks.

Now, I see where the Euro-Union bunch has turned on him for freedom of speech (or something).

Not sure that someone with strong opinions needs to be Chief Twit.

 

[Firebirdparts]

Only person to lose more money than Cathie this year is Zuck from that stupid ass Meta idea....

It's good work if you can get it.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Need all advice.

I own a chunk of AeroJet Rocketdyne (AJRD). Trading at $54ish. Looks like L3Harris is buying them for $58.

If price rises to $58 tomorrow, do I sell?

I'm never good with handling M&A delas.

Exclusive: L3Harris nears $4.7 billion deal to acquire Aerojet Rocketdyne | Reuters

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Need all advice.

I own a chunk of AeroJet Rocketdyne (AJRD). Trading at $54ish. Looks like L3Harris is buying them for $58.

If price rises to $58 tomorrow, do I sell?

I'm never good with handling M&A delas.

Exclusive: L3Harris nears $4.7 billion deal to acquire Aerojet Rocketdyne | Reuters

If you sell it will create a 2022 tax event. If you wait then the taxable gain (or loss) won’t happen until the deal closes. Plus GE could step in with an offer better than $58. There’s not too much risk in waiting until January.

 

[Jax_Vol]

If you sell it will create a 2022 tax event. If you wait then the taxable gain (or loss) won’t happen until the deal closes. Plus GE could step in with an offer better than $58. There’s not too much risk in waiting until January.

Good advice Thunder on GE. I’m way down overall on the year, so think I have plenty of room for the gain. I’m tech heavy, so been a sad year.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Good advice Thunder on GE. I’m way down overall on the year, so think I have plenty of room for the gain. I’m tech heavy, so been a sad year.

If you have 100 shares or more you can sell put options while waiting on a deal to close. Feb 17, 2023 57.5 call options will sell for about $150. But that would put a cap on getting a higher bid. The $55 strike sells for about $3 ($300 for 100 shares).

If LHX does put in a $58 offer and GE walks away then the return pretty much becomes a math equation. $54.89 today means a $3.11 increase between now and the $58 deal closing. So 3.11/54.89 = 5.7%. Pretty good for a near closing date. Not so great if it closes in 2024.

 

[Jax_Vol]

If you have 100 shares or more you can sell put options while waiting on a deal to close. Feb 17, 2023 57.5 call options will sell for about $150. But that would put a cap on getting a higher bid. The $55 strike sells for about $3 ($300 for 100 shares).

If LHX does put in a $58 offer and GE walks away then the return pretty much becomes a math equation. $54.89 today means a $3.11 increase between now and the $58 deal closing. So 3.11/54.89 = 5.7%. Pretty good for a near closing date. Not so great if it closes in 2024.

Yes, I have more than 100 shares. Need to ponder that.

LMT tried to buy AJRD a couple of years ago. It stretched out awhile before it became apparent that the government was not going to approve that deal. Aerojet provides propulsion for several companies, Raytheon being the best example. Dragging LMT into all that would cause a monopoly type issue. NOC and AJRD are the only two USA companies in that solid rocket business.

Don't know much about L3Harris, but wouldn't think they have any conflict of interest. I am fairly familiar with GE, and they only build turbine engines. Either way, I'm sure the government will again want to approve.

We will see what happens. I'm sure Aerojet will issue an announcement of some sort.

 

[mrorange211]

Guys, heads up. If the poll musk just released continues its pace, musk will step down from leading twitter. TSLA will boom. Buying a call in the AM after I check the poll in the AM

 

[Jax_Vol]

Guys, heads up. If the poll musk just released continues its pace, musk will step down from leading twitter. TSLA will boom. Buying a call in the AM after I check the poll in the AM

I don't have a dog in that fight. But, he needs to step down.

Chief Twit needs to be something like a referee...in the middle, no strong leanings one way or the other.

Elon is not that guy.

 

[Go aeiou]

Guys, heads up. If the poll musk just released continues its pace, musk will step down from leading twitter. TSLA will boom. Buying a call in the AM after I check the poll in the AM

And then there is this:
Poor poor Elon

3rd Largest Tesla Shareholder Suggests Elon Musk Should Step Aside As CEO

 

[mrorange211]

combined with low volume week + the destruction of last week? I’m talking myself into it already

 

[mrorange211]

Short term only, of course.

 

[VolAllen]

I’ll load some Tsla premarket for a quick pump. Won’t hold overnight

 

[mrorange211]

I won’t be able to buy until it’s too late. At this rate, it will open up 5%

 

[Velo Vol]

Baron’s top 10 picks for 2023:

Bank of America (BAC)
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK)
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Toll Bros (TOL)
Amazon (AMZN)
Medtronic (MDT)
Alcoa (AA)
Comcast (CMCSA)
Delta Airlines (DAL)
MSG Sports (MSGS)

I don't know anything about Medtronic, but I think most of those stocks are vulnerable to break through their 2022 lows next quarter.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I don't know anything about Medtronic, but I think most of those stocks are vulnerable to break through their 2022 lows next quarter.

Medtronic makes medical devices. Especially heart pacemakers and related items. They compete directly with St Jude Medical which is now part of Abbott. They also compete with Boston Scientific and JNJ. Potentially Stryker and Zimmer although they are orthopedics focused. GE Medical and foreign companies such as Seimens are threats to Medtronic’s business as well.

Medtronic was once a high flying stock. It’s been dead money for a while. They’ll be selling a lot of heart devices over the next several decades. They not only sell the implants, but they generate revenue from monitoring the performance of the pacemakers. Heart patients hook up to their wireless network every month or two to transmit patient data to cardiologists.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Yes, I have more than 100 shares. Need to ponder that.

LMT tried to buy AJRD a couple of years ago. It stretched out awhile before it became apparent that the government was not going to approve that deal. Aerojet provides propulsion for several companies, Raytheon being the best example. Dragging LMT into all that would cause a monopoly type issue. NOC and AJRD are the only two USA companies in that solid rocket business.

Don't know much about L3Harris, but wouldn't think they have any conflict of interest. I am fairly familiar with GE, and they only build turbine engines. Either way, I'm sure the government will again want to approve.

We will see what happens. I'm sure Aerojet will issue an announcement of some sort.

L3 and Harris merged a couple of years ago. L3 was a high flying defense stock. Harris was more radio focused and might have been more commercial oriented (radio and TV broadcasters). Combined it’s a communication systems behemoth. LMT, BA, and RTX are in the missile business. Raytheon is closer to a pure play. They sell the Patriot defense system. The government is allowing them to sell to more countries niw other than our closest allies and partners. Dot Gov doesn’t want Russia or China to overrun any country and get a look at the technology.

Raytheon and L3-Harris are sound equity investments. Those businesses are critical for national defense which reduces much of the risk of holding for a long time.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

LMT, Gee Dee, RTX, HON, SAIC, BA, GE, NOC, HII, LHX, LDOS, OSK, CACI, PLTR, and TXT are all good defense companies to consider. The Chinese Communust Party isn’t going to play nice anytime soon and there’s probably another loon that will follow Putin. The Industrial Military Complex is actually the good guys. Even though there has been corruption and waste uncovered in their history - they are on the side of freedom.

 

[Velo Vol]

Medtronic makes medical devices. Especially heart pacemakers and related items. They compete directly with St Jude Medical which is now part of Abbott. They also compete with Boston Scientific and JNJ. Potentially Stryker and Zimmer although they are orthopedics focused. GE Medical and foreign companies such as Seimens are threats to Medtronic’s business as well.

Medtronic was once a high flying stock. It’s been dead money for a while. They’ll be selling a lot of heart devices over the next several decades. They not only sell the implants, but they generate revenue from monitoring the performance of the pacemakers. Heart patients hook up to their wireless network every month or two to transmit patient data to cardiologists.

Aside, but on Twitter last week I read about a company that made some kind of eye implants for people with severe vision problems. Some kind of bionic eye.

The company had gone out of business, leaving people who had gotten the implant with hardware in their eye that was no longer being serviced--no successor company had bought the technology.

Sounds like kind of a nightmare if you had one.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Aside, but on Twitter last week I read about a company that made some kind of eye implants for people with severe vision problems. Some kind of bionic eye.

The company had gone out of business, leaving people who had gotten the implant with hardware in their eye that was no longer being serviced--no successor company had bought the technology.

Sounds like kind of a nightmare if you had one.

If I was getting my eyes cut on I’d hope that the ophthalmologist would go with a name brand like Bausch & Lomb, JNJ, or Alcon.

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

I don't know anything about Medtronic, but I think most of those stocks are vulnerable to break through their 2022 lows next quarter.

I own a buttload of MDT. The chart is ugly for last year but the div is top shelf. Yield is 3.55% and has grown every year an average of 8% for 44 years. The ex date on the next div is on 12/20/22 for a payday on 1/13/23. The chart is showing a double bottom over the past several weeks. I'm thinking about adding some more tomorrow before the ex date.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I own a buttload of MDT. The chart is ugly for last year but the div is top shelf. Yield is 3.55% and has grown every year an average of 8% for 44 years. The ex date on the next div is on 12/20/22 for a payday on 1/13/23. The chart is showing a double bottom over the past several weeks. I'm thinking about adding some more tomorrow before the ex date.

The dividend yield isn’t real safe. They pay $2.72 but the EPS is only $3.22. That’s not a conservative payout ratio.

Three scenarios outlined by MS Research:

BULL CASE $120.00
15.5x Bull Case CY24e EBITDA
Our Bull Case valuation is driven by 15.5x Bull Case CY24e EBITDA. Our Bull case scenario considers a scenario where Diabetes WL clearance moves forward faster than expected, RDN sees faster than expected market development and adoption, Hugo ramps faster following recent headwinds, and COVID-19 pressure on sensitive elective procedures such as SCS proves more moderate and manageable.

BASE CASE $88.00
12.5x Base Case CY24e EBITDA
Our Base Case target is driven by 12.5x Base Case CY24e EBITDA, at a discount to large cap peer set's CY24e multiple, reflecting delayed contribution from key pipeline platforms including RDN, robotics, and Diabetes. Other core procedure and pipeline products can provide offsets, including CRM, Structural Heart, Neuroscience, and Spine, although SCS and ortho specifically may continue to be sensitive to COVID-19 trajectories.

$50.00
Our Bear Case valuation is driven by 8.5x
Bear Case CY24e EBITDA. Our Bear case considers further, material delays on RDN, Hugo, and Diabetes, with the Diabetes Warning Letter meaningfully impacting approvals of other Medtronic pipeline products

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

The dividend yield isn’t real safe. They pay $2.72 but the EPS is only $3.22. That’s not a conservative payout ratio.

Three scenarios outlined by MS Research:

BULL CASE $120.00
15.5x Bull Case CY24e EBITDA
Our Bull Case valuation is driven by 15.5x Bull Case CY24e EBITDA. Our Bull case scenario considers a scenario where Diabetes WL clearance moves forward faster than expected, RDN sees faster than expected market development and adoption, Hugo ramps faster following recent headwinds, and COVID-19 pressure on sensitive elective procedures such as SCS proves more moderate and manageable.

BASE CASE $88.00
12.5x Base Case CY24e EBITDA
Our Base Case target is driven by 12.5x Base Case CY24e EBITDA, at a discount to large cap peer set's CY24e multiple, reflecting delayed contribution from key pipeline platforms including RDN, robotics, and Diabetes. Other core procedure and pipeline products can provide offsets, including CRM, Structural Heart, Neuroscience, and Spine, although SCS and ortho specifically may continue to be sensitive to COVID-19 trajectories.

$50.00
Our Bear Case valuation is driven by 8.5x
Bear Case CY24e EBITDA. Our Bear case considers further, material delays on RDN, Hugo, and Diabetes, with the Diabetes Warning Letter meaningfully impacting approvals of other Medtronic pipeline products

Well, your EPS of $3.22 is GAAP trailing. The non-gaap estimated fiscal 4/2023 eps is $5.25 to $5.30. This was the last updated guidance by MDT on 11/22/22. In their case, there are big differences between gaap and non-gaaap because a court case required them to book a $764 million expense within this last quarter. When calculating the payout ratios, do you think we should go strictly by gaap or use non-gaap? You'll see different analysts using both. Both can be distorted and misleading. In this case, the non-gaap eps makes the payout ratio around 52%. I usually like between 40% and 60% payout for my div picks. MDT's 52% is not bad when one considers the overall situation. Forty four years of div increases is strong. Maybe they cant increase it like they have. The pandemic may have disrupted them too much but I doubt they reduce.