All things STOCKS

#1,652
#1,652
VolAllen said:
This crash will change the way the game is played. People lost 10 years of gains in a week. This isn’t the old days of calling the floor to buy shares, they can be bought and sold with one hand and a cell phone. I’ll never buy and plan to hold long. Too much money to be made elsewhere.
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I’m fairness, the S&P has only pulled back to 2017 levels thus far.
 
#1,654
#1,654
Freak said:
With plays like this what are you basing it on? Technical indicators?
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A few different variables, depending on the individual stock. With some, momentum is the play, with others, LACK of momentum is an indicator to me that a pop is due.

With JCP, I’m looking at a few things. How many times has it ran from .50 to 1.00? .30’s to .60’s? Have they released any news in a while? What’s their plan to keep moving forward? If we don’t know, then they will have to tell us soon. Are they going to take advantage of a 0% loan and refinance their debt? Probably so. Have they seen this kind of adversity before? Yes. Have they changed business models in the past to adapt? Yes. Will they go BK? Probably down the road. Will their stock jump from .40 to .80 before that happens? Absolutely.
 
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#1,655
#1,655
VolAllen said:
This crash will change the way the game is played. People lost 10 years of gains in a week. This isn’t the old days of calling the floor to buy shares, they can be bought and sold with one hand and a cell phone. I’ll never buy and plan to hold long. Too much money to be made elsewhere.
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The reasoning was once in a generation. An overblown virus tanked the market.
 
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#1,656
#1,656
Big Gucci Sosa said:
The reasoning was once in a generation. An overblown virus tanked the market.
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Right, but that’s not the point. Look how something so simple and silly wiped out so much value. That will remain in people’s minds. It’s kind of like Bitcoin. My buddy has been holding it since it was $10k. He has ONE. In that time period it went to 3k, I bought 3, and flipped them for gains. He’s still currently down $4k. It just doesn’t make any sense to hold long term when you can buy the dips and flip. Rinse and repeat.
 
#1,658
#1,658
ninerplaya57 said:
There are no points or penalties for paying the mortgage off early. He just owes about $100,000 and the rate is 3.25%.
The whole reason he asked me is he has a financial guy that has been trying to steer him into an annuity with the money and he doesn’t want to do an annuity. Then his financial guy tried talking him into a life insurance policy and he said he thinks he might rather put it in stocks. He said he likes his financial guy but even though it’s supposed to be a fiduciary relationship he worries that the guy is looking out for himself as well because he gets 2% on the annuity and 1% on the life insurance policy he said if he puts it in stocks he pays less or if he pays off his mortgage it’s one less thing he has to worry about. I told him I couldn’t help him because I’m not a financial adviser. Maybe he should talk to another one too to see what he/she would say.
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An (variable) annuity would be invested in the same types of things as mutual funds or ETFs, but with higher fees and little tax advantages. Their sold as being tax favorable, but they only defer taxes and the gains don't benefit from lower capital gains rates and the mother of all favorable tax advantages to individuals, the stepped up basis rule for appreciated assets passed on to heirs.
 
#1,659
#1,659
lmoore944 said:
May be a good day to buy into teledoc
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I wish I had bought some before all of this. Just checked and at the beginning of February, it was around $103

Long term I think it might be a good bet, but will the value go down a decent amount after the whole coronavirus thing "ends" and we "go back to normal"??
 
#1,660
#1,660
VolAllen said:
Right, but that’s not the point. Look how something so simple and silly wiped out so much value. That will remain in people’s minds. It’s kind of like Bitcoin. My buddy has been holding it since it was $10k. He has ONE. In that time period it went to 3k, I bought 3, and flipped them for gains. He’s still currently down $4k. It just doesn’t make any sense to hold long term when you can buy the dips and flip. Rinse and repeat.
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You've got to separate the virus itself and what people are doing in response to the virus.

The virus itself is overblown, I agree. It's more serious than the flu because of what it can do to the elderly and those with pre-existing health problems, but it makes 99% of people who aren't in those 2 categories feel kind of "bleh" for a few days then they get over it.

However, in response to the virus, governments all around the world have essentially turned their economies off for indefinite periods of time. This situation is unlike 2008, the dotcom bust, and even the Great Depression because ultimately it isn't a financial crisis. It's a public health crisis. The market had a hard enough time pricing in how much bad debt was on bank balance sheets in 2008, so how is it supposed to price in entire economies being turned off for indefinite periods of time? The extent to which economies have been turned off combined with the fact that nobody knows how long it will last is the epitome of uncertainty and a perfect recipe for the type of selloff we've seen. We're talking anywhere from -20 to -50% GDP prints for Q2. That, combined with the algos and passive investing, means everything gets sold off together very quickly.

I mean, if the entire world got afraid of a supposed monster and shut off economies in response to it, the stock market would have to crash to reflect that. Even if it came out later that the monster was totally made up.
 
#1,661
#1,661
lmoore944 said:
May be a good day to buy into teledoc
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I read some articles on TeleDoc last night and there are a couple of things bothersome to me. They have several non-public competitors that have been raising funds from private sources. Another problem is that they had around $500 million in revenue, but recorded a loss of nearly $100 million. I suppose it's reasonable as they've been growing and investing back into the business, but it seems like physician compensation would be their largest expense and it's a variable cost that grows with volume. 25x sales is also quite expensive. But what's really attractive is the LT trend in health care and the fact that Warren Buffet and Amazon have partnered with them as a benefit for their employees. They might be more shielded from the progressive's health care reform initiatives than others in the HC sector (especially big Pharma). I think that there's a good chance of a much lower entry point since they're up 100% in a short time frame.
 
#1,662
#1,662
VolAllen said:
Right, but that’s not the point. Look how something so simple and silly wiped out so much value. That will remain in people’s minds. It’s kind of like Bitcoin. My buddy has been holding it since it was $10k. He has ONE. In that time period it went to 3k, I bought 3, and flipped them for gains. He’s still currently down $4k. It just doesn’t make any sense to hold long term when you can buy the dips and flip. Rinse and repeat.
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I would bet under 10% of people would be willing to play shorts, swings, etc.
 
#1,663
#1,663
05_never_again said:
You've got to separate the virus itself and what people are doing in response to the virus.

The virus itself is overblown, I agree. It's more serious than the flu because of what it can do to the elderly and those with pre-existing health problems, but it makes 99% of people who aren't in those 2 categories feel kind of "bleh" for a few days then they get over it.

However, in response to the virus, governments all around the world have essentially turned their economies off for indefinite periods of time. This situation is unlike 2008, the dotcom bust, and even the Great Depression because ultimately it isn't a financial crisis. It's a public health crisis. The market had a hard enough time pricing in how much bad debt was on bank balance sheets in 2008, so how is it supposed to price in entire economies being turned off for indefinite periods of time? The extent to which economies have been turned off combined with the fact that nobody knows how long it will last is the epitome of uncertainty and a perfect recipe for the type of selloff we've seen. We're talking anywhere from -20 to -50% GDP prints for Q2. That, combined with the algos and passive investing, means everything gets sold off together very quickly.

I mean, if the entire world got afraid of a supposed monster and shut off economies in response to it, the stock market would have to crash to reflect that. Even if it came out later that the monster was totally made up.
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Other than how rapidly the virus can multiply, the thing that really bothers me is how savagely it has wrecked economies. It's a game changer for possible biological terrorists and rogue nations. No doubt the Iranian leadership would love to release viral attacks on the infidels.
 
#1,665
#1,665
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Other than how rapidly the virus can multiply, the thing that really bothers me is how savagely it has wrecked economies. It's a game changer for possible biological terrorists and rogue nations. No doubt the Iranian leadership would love to release viral attacks on the infidels.
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That’s a great point. We just showed them how to destroy nations.
 
#1,667
#1,667
VolAllen said:
That’s a great point. We just showed them how to destroy nations.
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Hopefully biological weaponry is very difficult to develop and deploy and the source can be quickly determined. A massive response with everything that we've got, including nukes, would be perfectly acceptable in my book.
 
#1,668
#1,668
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Other than how rapidly the virus can multiply, the thing that really bothers me is how savagely it has wrecked economies. It's a game changer for possible biological terrorists and rogue nations. No doubt the Iranian leadership would love to release viral attacks on the infidels.
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I don't know if seeing the impact of a virus would want to make terrorists carry out a biological attack more than they already do. I don't think they lack or needed any added motivation.

I've always thought an non-state actor is more likely to do that kind of thing than a nation state. If Iran, North Korea, or anybody else even tried something like that, even if it was unsuccessful, they know they'd be vaporized, and unlike non-state actors like al-Qaeda or ISIS I don't think they have a death wish. They'd like to remain in power. If a terrorist group did it then returned to the shadows, it's a different ballgame.
 
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#1,671
#1,671
05_never_again said:
I don't know if seeing the impact of a virus would want to make terrorists carry out a biological attack more than they already do. I don't think they lack or needed any added motivation.

I've always thought an non-state actor is more likely to do that kind of thing than a nation state. If Iran, North Korea, or anybody else even tried something like that, even if it was unsuccessful, they know they'd be vaporized, and unlike non-state actors like al-Qaeda or ISIS I don't think they have a death wish. They'd like to remain in power. If a terrorist group did it then returned to the shadows, it's a different ballgame.
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The motivation hasn't changed. Witnessing how effective it can be has. 9/11 had a minuscule impact on the US economy relative to this.

It's a concern that an Iran type of player would sponsor the terror organization rather than carry an attack out directly. That's why I hope that sources can be determined or at least the intelligence is flawless.

If biological warfare is released, I'm sorry, but I'll be pretty much unconcerned with collateral damage. If citizens aren't able to stop their deranged leaders, then I'm not going to feel bad that they're vaporized as well. Rant over. Back to being a capitalist, infidel dog.
 
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