All things STOCKS

[Jax_Vol]

I have about 20% of my SEP-IRA in money mkt so I'll probably try to add a little today.

That's the spirit! Buy them puppies at the deep sale price!

 

[Vol737]

I'm getting cooked

Yeah, not fun to look at. My energy stocks are doing just okay this morning. My more concentrated tech holdings are ugly to look at. My pure dividend plays that I’ll likely never sell are hanging in there. Down, but hanging in there relative to these latest market Convulsions.

 

[mrorange211]

UNH

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Lots of 3% plus losers today.

More than 5%:
WBD, KKR, BX, ORCL

More than 4%:
PYPL, PLTR, INTC, ARKG, AX

More than 3.5%:
APO, CG, HOOD

More than 3%:
KHC, ARKK, MS, NVDA, AMAT, CRM, BLK, STT, CARR, KMX

CARR is trending opposite of HD and WHR

 

[Go aeiou]

That's the spirit! Buy them puppies at the deep sale price!

Falling knife?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

It’s tempting to just take the 5% bond yield and sit out the uncertainty. There really aren’t a lot of positive things going on to expect a better than average return in the S&P. But the S&P has been mostly down over the last 5 weeks and trying to time the big moves up is futile.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

SMCI is getting back down to a good entry point.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Falling knife?

I don't think so but never know for sure.

More thinking typical overreaction to news du jour.

Latch ahold of some good ones, hold for three weeks...such be climbing in first ten days of new Prez

 

[Jax_Vol]

It’s tempting to just take the 5% bond yield and sit out the uncertainty. There really aren’t a lot of positive things going on to expect a better than average return in the S&P. But the S&P has been mostly down over the last 5 weeks and trying to time the big moves up is futile.

How long does handwringing go about tariffs?

Somewhat old news, priced in. But money to be made if we can think like the trumpster regarding Denmark / Greenland, China, Canada, etc.

Seize the uncertainty.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

How long does handwringing go about tariffs?

Somewhat old news, priced in. But money to be made if we can think like the trumpster regarding Denmark / Greenland, China, Canada, etc.

Seize the uncertainty.

A lot of the recent mess is just giving back a lot of the run up that happened after the election.

Interest rates. Corporate profits. Deficit/debt. Those will be driving equities. Interest rates might have settled in to a reasonable level. I think I heard the Fed suggest that 3% inflation is now okay instead of targeting 2%.

Corporate profits need to come in to justify the high p/e multiples. A tax cut will help. Consumer spending was good at the end on 2024.

There are so many moving pieces going in different directions, it’s hard to feel comfortable with broad based equities heading up.

Threats of tariffs should be good in the long term. IMO the USA has been far more of a giver than a taker as far as fair trade. I don’t know how others can retaliate when they are already taking advantage of the unfettered access to this consumer base. Plus the free trade route protection. If the tariffs stick then we should continue building out domestic manufacturing.

Greenland is interesting. I certainly don’t think a purchase is reality. But growing a partnership with Denmark to extract and mine is a good end game. We need a strong presence in that part of the world.

I’m about fed up with the lawlessness in Mexico and places south of there. I’m all for taking a hard line stance against their nonsense. Fentanyl hasn’t effected me or my friends and family, but it’s ridiculous that some clown governments look the other way while so many Americans are being killed.

And f*** the CCP. We shouldn’t have ever cozied up to those lying, cheating bastages.

 

[Jax_Vol]

A lot of the recent mess is just giving back a lot of the run up that happened after the election.

Interest rates. Corporate profits. Deficit/debt. Those will be driving equities. Interest rates might have settled in to a reasonable level. I think I heard the Fed suggest that 3% inflation is now okay instead of targeting 2%.

Corporate profits need to come in to justify the high p/e multiples. A tax cut will help. Consumer spending was good at the end on 2024.

There are so many moving pieces going in different directions, it’s hard to feel comfortable with broad based equities heading up.

Threats of tariffs should be good in the long term. IMO the USA has been far more of a giver than a taker as far as fair trade. I don’t know how others can retaliate when they are already taking advantage of the unfettered access to this consumer base. Plus the free trade route protection. If the tariffs stick then we should continue building out domestic manufacturing.

Greenland is interesting. I certainly don’t think a purchase is reality. But growing a partnership with Denmark to extract and mine is a good end game. We need a strong presence in that part of the world.

I’m about fed up with the lawlessness in Mexico and places south of there. I’m all for taking a hard line stance against their nonsense. Fentanyl hasn’t effected me or my friends and family, but it’s ridiculous that some clown governments look the other way while so many Americans are being killed.

And f*** the CCP. We shouldn’t have ever cozied up to those lying, cheating bastages.

Amen brother, amen!

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

More Americans die of Fentanyl ODs every year than during the ENTIRE Vietnam War. Our leaders have failed us. I’m all for deploying the military to end the crisis. Stick the National Guard on the border. Kill off the cartels since the Mexican government hasn’t been able to control their lawlessness.

 

[Vol737]

More Americans die of Fentanyl ODs every year than during the ENTIRE Vietnam War. Our leaders have failed us. I’m all for deploying the military to end the crisis. Stick the National Guard on the border. Kill off the cartels since the Mexican government hasn’t been able to control their lawlessness.

I've said before, if I'm president, I fix our side of the border starting day one and my first call is to the president of Mexico to say fix your side of the border now or we will fix it for you. And I promise you that you will not like how we fix it. We have a national security issue that lends itself to taking serious actions on the border and against these cartels. Pencil whip the EO and let's roll.

 

[kiddiedoc]

I've said before, if I'm president, I fix our side of the border starting day one and my first call is to the president of Mexico to say fix your side of the border now or we will fix it for you. And I promise you that you will not like how we fix it. We have a national security issue that lends itself to taking serious actions on the border and against these cartels. Pencil whip the EO and let's roll.

100%

 

[kiddiedoc]

More Americans die of Fentanyl ODs every year than during the ENTIRE Vietnam War. Our leaders have failed us. I’m all for deploying the military to end the crisis. Stick the National Guard on the border. Kill off the cartels since the Mexican government hasn’t been able to control their lawlessness.

I don't think many people outside of healthcare workers who specialize in addiction or emergency medicine and law enforcement have any idea the magnitude of the problem.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

SMCI is getting back down to a good entry point.

Weren't their problems due to accounting practices?

 

[Jax_Vol]

Weren't their problems due to accounting practices?

Yes, I think that is a true statement.

Don't recall details, but think they hired a new accountant.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Weren't their problems due to accounting practices?

Their external auditor quit. They’re late filing returns with governing bodies. They had improperly recorded some insider dealings. But they have a new auditor. The SMCI management claims nothing was misstated. They were almost delisted.

A short selling trading firm targeted them last summer.

As long as NVDA is still supplying them, they ought to dig out of their self imposed problems.

 

[Vol737]

Down what, about 4-5% from all time high on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P? Any guesses when the real buying starts up again or are we looking at a 10% ish pullback in total?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Down what, about 4-5% from all time high on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P? Any guesses when the real buying starts up again or are we looking at a 10% ish pullback in total?

Ending the campaign against NVDA will help. It’s in all 3 averages and is off 15% from the $153 high.

The somewhat sudden shift in rate cuts effects the $$$s flowing to equities. I think I saw some speculation that there will only be one cut in 2025. With rates staying higher, if 2025 is projected to not be a big year for equities a lot might go for the sure thing of around 5% with debt. However, without rate cuts there is less incentive to accumulate mid and long term bonds for the bump in market value.

Bitcoin is going to be really interesting. It bottoms out at what level ($75k?) before pushing to $150k, $200k, $250k? I just don’t expect the 50-75% kind of drop with the $35 trillion debt and how many more years of deficit spending ahead? As bad as those things are, which currencies are better places to park cash? I sure wouldn’t shift to China. Gold? Inflation might not be as big of a concern going forward. Unless it’s driven by wage inflation.

I don’t like the premium on MSTR. Maybe COIN will outperform in 2025.

I’m hoping for financials to have a good year. Especially the alternatives to traditional banks and brokerages. PE and hedge funds.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Down what, about 4-5% from all time high on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P? Any guesses when the real buying starts up again or are we looking at a 10% ish pullback in total?

I think the trumpster's face will give us a new surge next week; unsure for how long.

But your guess is as good as mine..

 

[Jax_Vol]

Moderna announced today that COVID vaccines sales were slow this winter (down 20% today). That pulled BNTX down 6%.

For those searching for something going down, my guess is PFE. Throughout December, I noticed them advertising COVID shots a lot of television.


No one I know got a covid shot. My doctor even said, "Don't get a covid shot." Would think PFE sales are going to come up short.

NVAX is another smaller option in that same grouping.

 

[Vol737]

Ending the campaign against NVDA will help. It’s in all 3 averages and is off 15% from the $153 high.

The somewhat sudden shift in rate cuts effects the $$$s flowing to equities. I think I saw some speculation that there will only be one cut in 2025. With rates staying higher, if 2025 is projected to not be a big year for equities a lot might go for the sure thing of around 5% with debt. However, without rate cuts there is less incentive to accumulate mid and long term bonds for the bump in market value.

Bitcoin is going to be really interesting. It bottoms out at what level ($75k?) before pushing to $150k, $200k, $250k? I just don’t expect the 50-75% kind of drop with the $35 trillion debt and how many more years of deficit spending ahead? As bad as those things are, which currencies are better places to park cash? I sure wouldn’t shift to China. Gold? Inflation might not be as big of a concern going forward. Unless it’s driven by wage inflation.

I don’t like the premium on MSTR. Maybe COIN will outperform in 2025.

I’m hoping for financials to have a good year. Especially the alternatives to traditional banks and brokerages. PE and hedge funds.

That’s what I have seen/heard wrt any further rate cuts. A little over a year ago I parked about a third of my 401k in multiple cd ladders. Some have matured and some are still yet to, but across those multiple cd ladders I was getting an annual avg of around 5.2%. Of course those rates have dropped a half percentage point or so, so I’m not auto rolling them, just letting them come back into my cash account. I’ll figure out something from there. I’ve shifted over being heavier weighted in financials, healthcare and energy dividend plays. Will continue to hold my best tech plays, but watching closely.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I think the trumpster's face will give us a new surge next week; unsure for how long.

But your guess is as good as mine..

Getting Trump in and Biden out will be a positive, but the market move timing is unpredictable. It’s setting up to buy on the event (inauguration), but markets move in strange ways. I’d normally expect selling on tge news (Jan 20), but equities have already been under pressure for going on 2 months.

Getting the tax policy through will be yuge. The effectiveness of DOGE? Will the Dems obstruct or cooperate? Will the cabinet go together quickly or will the hearings be extremely contentious? Tariffs? One side is preaching that 25% (which is only a negotiating ploy at this point) will bring oppressive inflation. But is a trade war realistic when the US is mostly looking for quid pro quo instead of being taken advantage of? Buy our stuff fairly and avoid the 25%. Help keep fentanyl out of our country and avoid the penalty. Don’t partner up with the CCP and avoid the penalty.

 

[Ritzwatch]

I don't think many people outside of healthcare workers who specialize in addiction or emergency medicine and law enforcement have any idea the magnitude of the problem.

Stopped at a rest area in Ohio on the way to the CFP game. Glanced at the wall while taking care of business. What was there next to the hand dryer? An emergency Narcan kit, complete with instructions for quick use.

That was a bit depressing.