All things STOCKS

#17,001
#17,001
Carp said:
I'll be taking a gamble on DJT stock today with inauguration day on Monday. I feel like it's gonna pop 10-15% or better on Monday.
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The algorithms might already be setting up the buy the rumor, sell on the event (news) scenario. It might work out well, but I wouldn’t want to be faced with having to either take a loss or having to own DJT shares if the trade went against me.

Lots of risk IMO, so there could be a high degree of reward available as well. Personally, if I was long DJT, I’d want to close the position before inauguration.

Monday is MLK Day. US equity markets are closed.
 
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#17,002
#17,002
walkenvol said:
Thanks for sharing…I’m still trying to understand the process better and your examples help
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The PLTR put options have fallen to $0.06 since PLTR stock is (was) up by more than 2% today. It looks like they will hit zero by the end of the day today. I left a little profit by buying yesterday at $0.25, but the market underlying PLTR shares could have just as easily dropped today and I would have been assigned. That would have tied up $6,800/contract in investment capital.

PLTR 1/17/2025 $68.00 Put

Current PLTR quote: $70.20
 
#17,003
#17,003
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The algorithms might already be setting up the buy the rumor, sell on the event (news) scenario. It might work out well, but I wouldn’t want to be faced with having to either take a loss or having to own DJT shares if the trade went against me.

Lots of risk IMO, so there could be a high degree of reward available as well. Personally, if I was long DJT, I’d want to close the position before inauguration.

Monday is MLK Day. US equity markets are closed.
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Oh I am not holding DJT shares. I'm out on Tuesday regardless.
 
#17,004
#17,004
Carp said:
Oh I am not holding DJT shares. I'm out on Tuesday regardless.
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Yep. Losing more than $2.65/share. Institutional ownership is only about 6.5%. I am surprised tgat the market cap in under $9 billion and shares are around half of the 52 week high of $79.38.

It’s already up 20% since the open last Monday.

Today’s volume is almost 15 million less than 2 hours into the session. 13 million average over the last 10 days.

I have no conviction at all on which direction DJT heads. I don’t have the price to sales ratio at hand, but I bet it’s yuge.
 
#17,006
#17,006
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Yep. Losing more than $2.65/share. Institutional ownership is only about 6.5%. I am surprised tgat the market cap in under $9 billion and shares are around half of the 52 week high of $79.38.

It’s already up 20% since the open last Monday.

Today’s volume is almost 15 million less than 2 hours into the session. 13 million average over the last 10 days.

I have no conviction at all on which direction DJT heads. I don’t have the price to sales ratio at hand, but I bet it’s yuge.
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It never hit my buy order this morning and it has continued to climb. I liked the gamble at $41/share. But with it moving higher, I may sit it out. Hoping for an afternoon swoon.
 
#17,007
#17,007
Carp said:
It never hit my buy order this morning and it has continued to climb. I liked the gamble at $41/share. But with it moving higher, I may sit it out. Hoping for an afternoon swoon.
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I’m flipping a coin here, but I’m guessing it will creep up somewhat substantially early on in the 2nd term. But by the time the 2028 election comes around it will be lower than it is right now.
 
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#17,008
#17,008
DJT shares sell for 1,360x sales. I would expect that the revenue goes up a lot (from a very small base) - much like politicians that get book deals that don’t make sense relative to the number of books that are actually being sold. But revenue needs to go way up to support a nearly $10 billion market cap.

Plus companies that buy ads on the Truth Social platform are at risk of being cancelled by half the country. The Pillow Guy can do it, but normal companies not so much.
 
#17,009
#17,009
It’s been a really good week for stocks. But instead of because Trump coming in, I think it has more to do with Joe running out of time to sabotage whatever he can. I hope he doesn’t spend the weekend signing EOs. Just shut it down, Man.

Selling off the border fence components for pennies on the dollar was one of the most blatant eff yous that I’ve ever seen. Blocking energy extraction as well. I just hope that Trump has matured since 4 years ago. If that’s even possible for somebody pushing 80 years old.
 
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#17,012
#17,012
Down nearly 3% in the first hour of ownership is not how I envisioned this trade working out, lol.

I know there is profit taking going on, but damn.
 
#17,013
#17,013
Under $40 makes for an interesting opportunity for a short term gain next week. I’d be surprised if it doesn’t reach higher highs at some time during his term. I’d think in the first month in office. But it’s 100% speculation. As I said earlier, I wouldn’t want to hold it for very long.

25 minutes until close. Then about 90 hours without trading it.
 
#17,014
#17,014
I keep holding off on Bitcoin until it’s in the 80s (or 70s), but then it zooms back up solidly over $100k. Trump might drive it up near $200k soon.
 
#17,022
#17,022
BigOrangeMojo said:
People actually pay that to likely significantly underperform the market over a 10Y horizon?

And I thought the Hawk Tuah coin purchasers were suckers....
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I think it will trade up in the short term/mid term. However, with VCFs the concept is to be in them for the long term. There haven’t been many new public offerings in the last couple of years with anything. I think that VC, PE, and M&A exposure will do very well if the economy gets solidly on track while publicly traded equities could pause after a couple of very good years. But maybe publicly traded securities pause more so in 2026 as 2025 could be another year with positive returns. I think I saw that 8 out of 10 times with 20% or better 2 year performances the 3rd year is also positive.

I believe that ARKVX might be an option for non-credited investors to participate in the space. But she might not have much (or any) competition so that fee waiver could soon be bumped up to the nearly 5% gross. For now the fund seems to be trying to grow with new money (in small accounts).

They haven’t published a lot of details about ARKVX, but they’re running a lot of spots in the financial media. They’re trying to drive the new investors to use SoFi so there’s some sort of partnership going on there.
 
#17,024
#17,024
mrorange211 said:
I have a very uneasy feeling about the market right now. I keep feeling like a major rug pull is going to happen soon.
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A correction or bull market is certainly possible. But more like 20% or 25% and nothing like the NASDAQ falling 77% in 2000-2022 or the 40% drop in 2008/2009 that took until 2015 to bounce back from.

I think that interest rates, inflation, and unemployment numbers won’t shock equity markets. But it’s yet TBD if the spending can get under control while reducing taxes and NOT losing complete control of the debt level.

I don’t expect that tariffs (or the threats of tariffs) will significantly damage the economy. But getting enough labor into the country LEGALLY will be huge if domestic manufacturing is going to be rebuilt. AI would help, but labor unions will resist those innovations.

It looks like NVDA isn’t being picked on like they have been by the financial media for a month or two. But now AAPL seems to be the new whipping boy.
 
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#17,025
#17,025
mrorange211 said:
I have a very uneasy feeling about the market right now. I keep feeling like a major rug pull is going to happen soon.
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Shaddup!
I'm supposed to sell a community bank stock soon. It's a Sub S corp, and there are less than 80 sharholders. If the stock market collapses so will my sell. At least at our agreed purchase price.
 
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