All things STOCKS

[DaddyChad]

The mood right now is to punish markets on any negative news. I don’t expect an opposite, equal rebound as better news slowly drops. It should take several months to recover from the rapid pull back. Trump is too disruptive for those that are risk averse. His policies will need to start showing results to bring back investor confidence.

I don’t expect Mexico or Canada to let their pissing matches to drag on. They have too much to lose and don’t have a lot of leverage. Are there any countries that have fair and equivalent tariffs in place? When they’re already taking advantage of the US they don’t have good hands to play. They’re trying to use the liberal media fueling the Never Trumpers to help the lame arguments.

This is kind of an outlier as far as a sell off but you saw NVDA do a deep sell off into the deepseek BS news then climb back up going into earnings. I’m betting you see a similar response here bc idk many that have the balls to short it going into earnings.

 

[walkenvol]

Joint session address at 9PM. Markets up right now. Lets see what he says.

Play a drinking game where you take a shot every time he says greatest!

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Thor Industries (THO) is getting hammered (-15%) with crap earnings/loss release. Airstream and Jayco. $5 billion market cap. 2.1% dividend.

 

[05_never_again]

This is kind of an outlier as far as a sell off but you saw NVDA do a deep sell off into the deepseek BS news then climb back up going into earnings. I’m betting you see a similar response here bc idk many that have the balls to short it going into earnings.

I don't short-term trade anymore, but NVDA (and the semis broadly) don't trade/act all that well right now. On the daily chart NVDA is making lower highs and lower lows, and it is currently below both the 50 and 200 DMAs which are starting to roll over (50 already has, and the 200 will soon unless it is able to snap back above it over the next few days). When stocks get below and stay below those longer-term MAs and those MAs start to roll over and decline, and the stock bounces back towards them, rallies tend to get stopped at or around them.

NVDA got pounded on the DeepSeek news, then rallied into earnings, then undercut the DeepSeek low after those earnings were released. That, combined with the overall price action/trend in the stock since last summer, kind of looks like distribution to me.

Unless the broader market can find new leadership quickly, it doesn't bode well for it either. At least on a short to intermediate-term basis.

 

[mrorange211]

I don't short-term trade anymore, but NVDA (and the semis broadly) don't trade/act all that well right now. On the daily chart NVDA is making lower highs and lower lows, and it is currently below both the 50 and 200 DMAs which are starting to roll over (50 already has, and the 200 will soon unless it is able to snap back above it over the next few days). When stocks get below and stay below those longer-term MAs and those MAs start to roll over and decline, and the stock bounces back towards them, rallies tend to get stopped at or around them.

NVDA got pounded on the DeepSeek news, then rallied into earnings, then undercut the DeepSeek low after those earnings were released. That, combined with the overall price action/trend in the stock since last summer, kind of looks like distribution to me.

Unless the broader market can find new leadership quickly, it doesn't bode well for it either. At least on a short to intermediate-term basis.

This is definitely playing out in the market today.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I think it’s important for the whole market how well the “smoke stack” companies perform. Current policy initiatives should stimulate the domestic manufacturing base including materials and energy. Of course early trading could have peeled off a lot of potential capital gains, but a huge push to ramp up should play out well for the overall economy. More profits. Larger payrolls. More tax revenue. Lower national debt.

 

[05_never_again]

On the daily chart, the S&P technically is in a pretty vulnerable position here. The top of the morning rally tagged the 50 DMA, which has rolled over and is now declining. I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the 200 DMA soon.

We bounced off of it yesterday, and got close to it again today. NDX is right there as we speak and slightly undercut it yesterday.

 

[DaddyChad]

I don't short-term trade anymore, but NVDA (and the semis broadly) don't trade/act all that well right now. On the daily chart NVDA is making lower highs and lower lows, and it is currently below both the 50 and 200 DMAs which are starting to roll over (50 already has, and the 200 will soon unless it is able to snap back above it over the next few days). When stocks get below and stay below those longer-term MAs and those MAs start to roll over and decline, and the stock bounces back towards them, rallies tend to get stopped at or around them.

NVDA got pounded on the DeepSeek news, then rallied into earnings, then undercut the DeepSeek low after those earnings were released. That, combined with the overall price action/trend in the stock since last summer, kind of looks like distribution to me.

Unless the broader market can find new leadership quickly, it doesn't bode well for it either. At least on a short to intermediate-term basis.

Maybe. Technical analysis doesn’t look great. Fundamentally you’re hearing companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft say that the bottleneck on AI is hardware and seeing their data center budgets go up. I could be wrong maybe their market dominance is eroding but I doubt it; I bet they knock it out of the park in the next earnings on Blackwell sales.

The other issue that could kick NVDA in the teeth is the deal with Singapore routing GPUs through Malaysia to China. NVDA did nothing wrong but a large percentage of sales were going to Singapore and most of that was getting routed illegally to China.

 

[05_never_again]

Maybe. Technical analysis doesn’t look great. Fundamentally you’re hearing companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft say that the bottleneck on AI is hardware and seeing their data center budgets go up. I could be wrong maybe their market dominance is eroding but I doubt it; I bet they knock it out of the park in the next earnings on Blackwell sales.

The other issue that could kick NVDA in the teeth is the deal with Singapore routing GPUs through Malaysia to China. NVDA did nothing wrong but a large percentage of sales were going to Singapore and most of that was getting routed illegally to China.

It's really tough, IMO, to short-term trade based on fundamentals. The stuff about their GPUs ending up in China via Singapore has been speculated/known about for a long time, but it didn't prevent the stock from going up.

They've beaten extremely high street expectations with their last 4 earnings reports, yet the stock has gone ultimately nowhere since last summer. It is also trading basically exactly where it was after the DeepSeek scare (there was a big rally between then, yes, but it has given all that back), which could indicate that there is something legitimate to those worries. I personally am very skeptical of the claim, as I am with any data point coming out of China, but the market doesn't care what I think. The stock got hammered on the news and hasn't acted great since then.

Who knows - it could be consolidating gains before another leg higher, but I wouldn't expect it to be at or exceeding the old high in the near-term.

 

[DaddyChad]

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