All things STOCKS

#17,076
#17,076
mrorange211 said:
I'm sitting in all cash now ready to pounce though. Not going to try and catching this falling knife just yet...
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That’s how I’m feeling. There’s going to be lower lows coming beyond the carnage at the open. However the NASDAQ futures have gotten about a third back. We might creep up throughout the day and then sell off in the latter afternoon. Maybe see the lows for the day at the close. There will be a lot of panic selling today.

I hope it turns around quickly instead of day after day of getting slammed for being long equities like it did between the election and year end.

Not a bad entry point for the semi stocks. ASML. NVDA. AMD. Broadcom. SMCI. TSM. MU.

Bitcoin has crossed above and below $100k many times recently.

I suppose I’ll sell some sort of puts today or tomorrow. But the Fed could turn that trade into a train wreck at mid-week.
 
#17,077
#17,077
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Look out below.

One day event or will retail investors’ account be bleeding out all week?

Chinese AI bringing down US tech? I’m not a believer in CCP backed anything.

Never mind that the FOMC meets this week and has an interest rate decision on Wednesday at 2pm. Instead, a Chinese AI app is changing the world this morning.
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IMO this is a "looking for a reason to sell" deal. The market is extended and has been for a while, particularly since the election.

Call me skeptical, but I don't think anybody, and definitely not a Chinese company in particular, created a better app than ChatGPT for $6m.
 
#17,078
#17,078
Jax_Vol said:
You are in a great position!!

Hopefully, this is over-reaction.

But, yeah...certainly don't buy on the open. Let's see how fall it drops.

If VIX hits 60-70%, that is when I would swing into action. Doubtful we see that much panic selling 🤞, but people are weird.
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I guess we’re on opposite sides of the panic selling scenario. I think that after falling every day for a couple of weeks last month still a fresh memory, many are going to want to get out. Hopefully the weak market at the end of 2024 thinned out that group.
 
#17,080
#17,080
05_never_again said:
IMO this is a "looking for a reason to sell" deal. The market is extended and has been for a while, particularly since the election.

Call me skeptical, but I don't think anybody, and definitely not a Chinese company in particular, created a better app than ChatGPT for $6m.
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Maybe MSFT is going to be a good opportunity. I think that they’ve lagged the Mag-7 and it’s time to rotate into those shares.

I’ve been wanting to buy ASML for months. I’d like to see it under $600 though.
 
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#17,084
#17,084
Down 2.33% all told in my account today, but my ANET is getting scorched. SHOP too, but SHOP seems like it’s guilty by association. I’m holding for now, but this is a gut punch this morning. CCP probably putting that noise out there just to rattle markets. I’m with TGO…I don’t trust a thing the CCP puts out and certainly not a buyer of their stocks.
 
#17,085
#17,085
GE Vernova off almost 20%. Because obviously the magical Chinese AI won’t require more power generation infrastructure to be built anymore. Reminds me of the high tech dot com sock puppet companies in 2000 becoming more valuable than the companies that were putting satellites into orbit.

AAPL didn’t crash today.
 
#17,086
#17,086
Vol737 said:
Down 2.33% all told in my account today, but my ANET is getting scorched. SHOP too, but SHOP seems like it’s guilty by association. I’m holding for now, but this is a gut punch this morning. CCP probably putting that noise out there just to rattle markets. I’m with TGO…I don’t trust a thing the CCP puts out and certainly not a buyer of their stocks.
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They see Trump’s tariffs coming their way and need to try to appear to be relevant. They also don’t like having their hand forced with TikTok.

Those people need to get rid of their dictator.
 
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#17,087
#17,087
Really hard not to sell ANET right now. Down 16% on that one alone today, but up overall 30%. As soon as I do, though, I would likely see a big swing back up sometime this week after some dust settles and I would be pi$$3d that I sold.
 
#17,089
#17,089
05_never_again said:
If you're looking at the futures, this is actually a really impressive bounce off the 6 AM lows. I wonder if we head back down there during the regular session.
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Right. That is the $64,000 question.

I think it is going to hang in there. Go down again during lunch but recover some in the last hour. Down for the day, but not at the pre-market levels.

Once NVDA gets down 14%, I think the fund managers are going to jump all over that. As usual, market has over-reacted to freaking China news. Confident there is some truth in their story, but I still never trust that bunch of weasels.
 
#17,091
#17,091
Jax_Vol said:
Right. That is the $64,000 question.

I think it is going to hang in there. Go down again during lunch but recover some in the last hour. Down for the day, but not at the pre-market levels.

Once NVDA gets down 14%, I think the fund managers are going to jump all over that. As usual, market has over-reacted to freaking China news. Confident there is some truth in their story, but I still never trust that bunch of weasels.
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For now the Nasdaq is much more relatively strong than NVDA and the chip names. Everything gapped lower, but the Qs have held in and made a higher high on the 1m chart NVDA has made a lower low.

I have no insight into this, but I don't trust any number or factoid coming out of China. The only way the "it cost us $6m to develop this model" quote is true is if DeepSeek put in $6m of their own money and the CCP put in $1 billion. It definitely got the market's attention, but I think you have a lot of people sitting on gains who wanted to sell.
 
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#17,092
#17,092
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Maybe MSFT is going to be a good opportunity. I think that they’ve lagged the Mag-7 and it’s time to rotate into those shares.

I’ve been wanting to buy ASML for months. I’d like to see it under $600 though.
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Yeah...ASML is a stud. Trumpster can't afford to tariff their home country. Is that Netherlands?

Intel hanging by a thread. They gotta have the latest and greatest from ASML to have any hope.
 
#17,095
#17,095
Jax_Vol said:
Yeah...ASML is a stud. Trumpster can't afford to tariff their home country. Is that Netherlands?

Intel hanging by a thread. They gotta have the latest and greatest from ASML to have any hope.
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Yes. Amsterdam.

Most of what ASML sells goes to Taiwan, so the 25% tariffs would be mostly indirect.

INTC makes or breaks based on getting manufacturing subsidized in the US. They’d be one of the most vertically integrated chip makers if they execute. But they’re not a big player in the high end. More of a lower margin commodity niche. Fabless has higher margins but depends on Taiwan (and China) to get those chips made.

Looking like I wasn’t quick and aggressive enough to get SMCI put contracts sold this morning. But I’m going to leave my limit order alone instead of chasing it. Tech shares might tank in the afternoon.
 
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