And then there were 4...

#51
#51
VFL-82-JP said:
So, taking it one week at a time..

Here are the matches this coming weekend involving teams with -0 on their resumes. Question: which is most likely to lose? Not necessarily likely to lose, but most likely:
  • #1 Georgia vs Florida (4-3)
  • #2 Ohio State @ #16 Penn State (6-1)
  • #3 Tennessee vs #19 Kentucky (5-2)
  • #4 Michigan vs Michigan State (3-4)
  • #5 Clemson vs Bye Week (0-8)
  • #8 TCU @ West Virginia (3-4)
I would probably put them in this order:
  1. decent chance Penn State knocks off Ohio State. Not 50/50, not even odds, but a good enough chance Ryan Day should be sweating.
  2. next I'd put UGa and Michigan on a bit of upset alert. And for the same reason--these rivalry games, sometimes you gotta throw the teams' records out the window and just acknowledge them as peers for the day.
  3. at the bottom go the Vols, TCU, and Clemson. Yes, Wildkitten fans and trolls, I just said the Tennessee Volunteers have the same chance of getting beaten by you as Clemson has of getting beaten by Bye Week. Live with it, hug tight to six days' worth of dreams of rubbing it in my face after a miraculous Wildcat victory, and then come back to reality. WGWTFA.
What do you think? I mean, other than the Kentucky fans, we all know what they think.
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Georgia is in a trap game situation. Looking ahead to TN. Florida is a neutral ground game. They have performed poorly against far weaker opponents, including Kent State at home. I think this is the most likely to be an upset.
 
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#52
#52
To me an undefeated power 5 conference champion deserves to be in no matter what (obviously unless there are 5 undefeated teams, which is unlikely). Pac-12 is probably already eliminated at this point, even over a one loss SEC or possibly B1G team (i.e us or Michigan if those teams don't win their division).

I could see a 1 loss Big-12 champ getting in over a 1 loss at large SEC team. Certainly can't see a 1 loss Clemson team getting in over a 1 loss at large SEC team. If we don't beat Georgia, we'll still have the best resume in college football imo outside of possible a few conference champions.
 
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#53
#53
TCU isn’t going undefeated. They’ve gotten so lucky. The starting QB for the opposing team has gotten hurt, and did not finish the game, 4 times. And they were trailing by double digits in several of those games. They have a good team, but man they’ve been lucky.
 
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#54
#54
VFL-82-JP said:
Okay, technically 6. But two of those are gone for sure before the regular season ends.

Tennessee / Georgia
Ohio State / Michigan
Clemson
TCU

Barring a significant upset, that could very well be the four undefeated conference champs, and the playoff slate.

"No, but Bama will get in ahead of TCU, and maybe ahead of Clemson, too."

Possible. But only if Bama is the SEC champ, meaning the list above has been whittled to 3, giving them an opening. If Bama loses a second game, to us or the Dawgs in Atlanta, they're out. No 2-loss team has ever made the CFP.

"No, but the Vols could lose to UGa and still get in at 11-1."

Possible. But a 13-0 Clemson and a 13-0 TCU are going to have a super strong case, too.

There's a lot of football to play. We, just like every one of the teams in that list up there, just gotta win out and we're guaranteed a post-season of competing for championships.

It's nice to be in the race still, 7 games into the season.

Go Vols!
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Just beat Kentucky.
 
#55
#55
AllThingsTN said:
TCU isn’t going undefeated. They’ve gotten so lucky. The starting QB for the opposing team has gotten hurt, and did not finish the game, 4 times. And they were trailing by double digits in several of those games. They have a good team, but man they’ve been lucky.
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I think they probably lose too. Not sure about their earlier games, as I’ve only looked at the scores, but they’ve been in some close ones and have a bunch of teams left with non-trivial chances. Texas is actually favored and not slightly by at least one model:

FFF452BE-E10D-40F7-AC72-8732FC46BB5B.jpeg
 
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#59
#59
I don’t think a one loss Clemson gets in, but they could. There is a lot of football to be played. Who are they likely to play in the ACC championship game?
 
#60
#60
WestTennesseeVol said:
As it stands now, I think Tennessee has to at least make Atlanta to have a shot.

But we’re going undefeated, so these what ifs don’t matter.
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“If” Tennessee finished with 1 loss, and Georgia won the SEC championship game Tennessee would get the nod as the SEC #2. As the west team would have at least 2 losses and if it were Bama they would have a loss to Tennessee.

With 1 loss Tennessee has a good shot at going to the playoff. Of corse a lot “could” depend on TCU.

Tennessee certainly needs to TCB and hopefully they will, then nothing else matters.

Never opened myself this way
 
#61
#61
WestTennesseeVol said:
If TCU goes undefeated-
Clemson
Ohio State/Michigan
TCU
SEC champion

If TCU drops a game-
Clemson
Ohio State/Michigan
SEC champion
SEC runner up OR Big 12 champion

As it stands now, I think Tennessee has to at least make Atlanta to have a shot.

But we’re going undefeated, so these what ifs don’t matter.
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It would be great to be undefeated but the path to an undefeated season is a tough road.

It makes me feel really good to see the Vols become relevant again. However, I fear that Heupel may have already set the bar for success too high. What does he do for next year? Vol fans have a history of impatience and intolerance. If JH loses 2-3 games, they will be calling for him to be fired, so we can hire the next Derek Dooley or Jeremy Pruett.

I have my own picks for the final 4. I believe they are based more on reality than being a "homer,
OSU
Clemson
Oregon
LSU/Alabama (The LSU/Bama winner in regular season wins SEC West and will defeat GA/UT in the SEC Championship game.

I believe Oregon could be the best team in the country right now. They have really come together after the opening loss to GA. They are scary fast...even faster than LSU.
 
#62
#62
UCF was undefeated a few years ago and didn't make the playoff... so why should Clemson or TCU when a 1 loss SEC team is better
 
#63
#63
Stephen Gray said:
I think they probably lose too. Not sure about their earlier games, as I’ve only looked at the scores, but they’ve been in some close ones and have a bunch of teams left with non-trivial chances. Texas is actually favored and not slightly by at least one model:

View attachment 505237
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I believe TCU has won several games in which their opponent was missing their starting QB
 
#64
#64
This seems like the year that conference championship games should just be considered the quarterfinal round of the playoffs. Win and advance. Lose and you’re out.

Edit: this is still assuming the champions only have one loss.
 
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