App to calculate SEC championship tie breakers

[BanditVol]

SIAP

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=secfb

Looks like bama is a lock given their remaining schedule. Texas has to beat Tamu.

 

[TrueOrange]

You linked it incorrectly...it's leading to an internal service error screen

mred's SEC FB Standings Generator

Southeastern Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

Also - with the multiple team tiebreaker leading to conference opponent winning percentage - Alabama would be the second team in regardless of whether Texas beats TAMU or TAMU beats Texas.

 

[TrueOrange]

Before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario...it requires a 4-team tie with Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (as a 4-way tie would be created between Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss at 6-2, with the tiebreaker being based on the record vs common conference opponents Kentucky, Florida, and Mississippi State, with Georgia and Tennessee both being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), (having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot. The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

But I think that might be absolutely it.

Edit: Welp, I found an actual second one...and boy is it it a dandy, involving just every single conference game over the next two weeks.

It would require:

4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
5-5 Florida beating 8-2 Ole Miss
6-4 Vanderbilt beating 6-4 LSU
2-8 Mississippi State beating 7-3 Missouri
5-5 Oklahoma beating 8-2 Alabama
4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas

Followed by:
3-8 Mississippi State beating 8-3 Ole Miss
8-3 Alabama beating 5-6 Auburn
6-5 Oklahoma beatinf 6-5 LSU
6-5 Arkansas beating 7-4 Missouri
8-3 Texas A&M beating 9-2 Texas
And 9-2 Tennessee beating 7-4 Vanderbilt

This absolute storm would result in a three-team tie between Georgia, Texas A&M, and Tennessee for the spots in the SEC Championship Game. As the only common opponents the three share are Florida and Mississippi State (both of whom each team beat), it would go to conference opponent strength of schedules. Thanks to this exact series of results, Georgia's and Tennessee's conference opponent strength of schedules would actually shoot up to 0.4688 on the year whereas A&M's would now sit at 0.4375.

This would eliminate A&M, with Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would once again put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot.The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

 

[mrmax86]

Before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario...it requires a 3-team tie with Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (winning the tiebreaker with Ole Miss and Texas based on record vs common conference opponents Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, with Tennessee being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

But I think that might be absolutely it.

Wow I didn't think it was possible.

 

[NetworkVol]

Before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario...it requires a 3-team tie with Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (winning the tiebreaker with Ole Miss and Texas based on record vs common conference opponents Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, with Tennessee being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

But I think that might be absolutely it.

Texas and ole miss beat Arkansas? We would be 3-1 and they would be 3-1 against common opponents

 

[NetworkVol]

Texas and ole miss beat Arkansas? We would be 3-1 and they would be 3-1 against common opponents

Correction, sorry Ole Miss would be in because all 3 also played UGA but Ole Miss got the win. 3-2 while Ole Miss would be 4-1

 

[zeppelin128]

Before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario...it requires a 3-team tie with Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (winning the tiebreaker with Ole Miss and Texas based on record vs common conference opponents Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, with Tennessee being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

But I think that might be absolutely it.

 

[Oldvoldad]

Before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario...it requires a 3-team tie with Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (winning the tiebreaker with Ole Miss and Texas based on record vs common conference opponents Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, with Tennessee being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

But I think that might be absolutely it.

Man that is a lot!

 

[AthensVol2007]

You linked it incorrectly...it's leading to an internal service error screen

mred's SEC FB Standings Generator

Southeastern Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

Also - with the multiple team tiebreaker leading to conference opponent winning percentage - Alabama would be the second team in regardless of whether Texas beats TAMU or TAMU beats Texas.

He said Bama is a lock in his post

 

[901 Orange]

Before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario...it requires a 3-team tie with Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (winning the tiebreaker with Ole Miss and Texas based on record vs common conference opponents Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, with Tennessee being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

But I think that might be absolutely it.

Wouldn't Mizzou losing to Miss st and Arkansas also change the tiebreaker set up??

 

[camp_steveo]

Before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario...it requires a 3-team tie with Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (winning the tiebreaker with Ole Miss and Texas based on record vs common conference opponents Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, with Tennessee being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

But I think that might be absolutely it.

That isn't really that far-fetched. I could see that happening. Obviously, it isn't a likely scenario, but its possible. I won't be shocked if those results happen like that.

 

[wtmvol]

That isn't really that far-fetched. I could see that happening. Obviously, it isn't a likely scenario, but its possible. I won't be shocked if those results happen like that.

You don't think Bama losing to Auburn or Oklahoma AND kentucky beating Texas is far-fetched? And that's not even all that has to happen.

 

[camp_steveo]

You don't think Bama losing to Auburn or Oklahoma AND kentucky beating Texas is far-fetched? And that's not even all that has to happen.

Well, UK damn near beat UGA in Lexington this year and they beat Ole Mill on the road. So, it isn't crazy to think its possible for UK to beat TX.

And, Alabama, as good as they have been, did lose to Vanderbilt on the road. So, it's possible.

You think that isn't possible? I think it is. We shall both see!

GBO

 

[volbound1700]

Wouldn't Mizzou losing to Miss st and Arkansas also change the tiebreaker set up??

Missouri has 3 losses and is out of the picture.

 

[wtmvol]

Well, UK damn near beat UGA in Lexington this year and they beat Ole Mill on the road. So, it isn't crazy to think its possible for UK to beat TX.

And, Alabama, as good as they have been, did lose to Vanderbilt on the road. So, it's possible.

You think that isn't possible? I think it is. We shall both see!

GBO

Possible? I guess. Far-fetched? Extremely!

The very first thing on the list of what must happen (Kentucky beating Texas on the road) has a 5.3% chance of happening according to the ESPN game predictor. This isn't the same team that beat Ole Miss. They've lost 4 straight SEC games since then and lost by double digits in 3 of them. The other things that must go right aren't as daunting, but getting those ALL to happen in conjunction with Kentucky remembering how to play football has <1% chance of happening.

I'm going to spend my energy pulling against Ole Miss because that leads to a much more realistic scenario of making the playoffs (not the SEC Championship).

 

[TrueOrange]

Texas and ole miss beat Arkansas? We would be 3-1 and they would be 3-1 against common opponents

Correction, sorry Ole Miss would be in because all 3 also played UGA but Ole Miss got the win. 3-2 while Ole Miss would be 4-1

Not quite, but my bad in that I didn't understand/explain well what I had been given back by the system (and I will update the original post to relay what I'm correcting/clarifying below.)

The way it worked was that UGA is also involved at 6-2 as well, making it a 4-way tie. UGA, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss all have 3 common opponents: Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Florida.

Based on the hypothetical scenario mentioned in the original above, the teams would have done the following against them

Georgia (3-0)
Tennessee (3-0)
Texas (2-1)
Ole Miss (2-1)

That would separate Tennessee and Georgia from the group, and Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot.

 

[TrueOrange]

Wouldn't Mizzou losing to Miss st and Arkansas also change the tiebreaker set up??

Missouri has 3 losses and is out of the picture.

Has absolutely no effect relative to TN when it comes to the tie-breaking picture. Tennessee didn't play Missouri (so their outcome, be it 9-3 or 7-5, doesn't effect Tennessee's conference opponent strength of schedule).

With only 2 games left, the gap between the conference opponent strength of schedule of the teams Missouri did play (namely A&M and Alabama), is pretty close to fixed...both are pretty far ahead of Tennessee's (Alabama's is looking to finish above .500, A&M's is looking to finish around .440-.450, while Tennessee's is likely looking to finish somewhere in the .300s, with it likely being around .350...it can potentially hit around .450-.460, but that requires a clusterf--k next week results-wise, and if Tennessee ends up with an individual tiebreaker with Texas A&M, it would lose the common opponents tiebreaker - consisting of Florida, Arkansas, and Mississippi State 2-1).

 

[TrueOrange]

Possible? I guess. Far-fetched? Extremely!

The very first thing on the list of what must happen (Kentucky beating Texas on the road) has a 5.3% chance of happening according to the ESPN game predictor. This isn't the same team that beat Ole Miss. They've lost 4 straight SEC games since then and lost by double digits in 3 of them. The other things that must go right aren't as daunting, but getting those ALL to happen in conjunction with Kentucky remembering how to play football has <1% chance of happening.

I'm going to spend my energy pulling against Ole Miss because that leads to a much more realistic scenario of making the playoffs (not the SEC Championship).

Who said I was banking on this or thought it was likely? I started the comment off with "before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario" as in "someone or someones are going to start asking 'Does Tennessee have a possible scenario?', 'Is there a set of results that still in favor of Tennessee?', etc".

I was just posting it and answering about that before it got started...mostly to quell any rush of guesses before too much speculation got rolling.

 

[volbound1700]

Has absolutely no effect relative to TN when it comes to the tie-breaking picture. Tennessee didn't play Missouri (so their outcome, be it 9-3 or 7-5, doesn't effect Tennessee's conference opponent strength of schedule).

With only 2 games left, the gap between the conference opponent strength of schedule of the teams Missouri did play (namely A&M and Alabama), is pretty close to fixed...both are pretty far ahead of Tennessee's (Alabama's is looking to finish above .500, A&M's is looking to finish around .440-.450, while Tennessee's is likely looking to finish somewhere in the .300s, with it likely being around .350...it can potentially hit around .450-.460, but that requires a clusterf--k next week results-wise, and if Tennessee ends up with an individual tiebreaker with Texas A&M, it would lose the common opponents tiebreaker - consisting of Florida, Arkansas, and Mississippi State 2-1).

That was my point, Missouri is not in the SEC Championship picture. They are out.

 

[wtmvol]

Who said I was banking on this or thought it was likely? I started the comment off with "before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario" as in "someone or someones are going to start asking 'Does Tennessee have a possible scenario?', 'Is there a set of results that still in favor of Tennessee?', etc".

I was just posting it and answering about that before it got started...mostly to quell any rush of guesses before too much speculation got rolling.

I don't think anyone said you were banking on it, TO. I was replying to another poster.

 

[TrueOrange]

I don't think anyone said you were banking on it, TO. I was replying to another poster.

My apologies. For some reason I misread the quoted post and thought it was one of my posts. My bad.

 

[TrueOrange]

Dear God I found an actual second scenario...and boy is it it a dandy, involving just every single conference game over the next two weeks.

It would require: [inhales]

4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
5-5 Florida beating 8-2 Ole Miss
6-4 Vanderbilt beating 6-4 LSU
2-8 Mississippi State beating 7-3 Missouri
5-5 Oklahoma beating 8-2 Alabama
4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas

Followed by:
3-8 Mississippi State beating 8-3 Ole Miss
8-3 Alabama beating 5-6 Auburn
6-5 Oklahoma beating 6-5 LSU
6-5 Arkansas beating 7-4 Missouri
8-3 Texas A&M beating 9-2 Texas
And 9-2 Tennessee beating 7-4 Vanderbilt

This absolute storm would result in a three-team tie between Georgia, Texas A&M, and Tennessee for the spots in the SEC Championship Game. As the only common opponents the three share are Florida and Mississippi State (both of whom each team beat), it would go to conference opponent strength of schedules.

Thanks to this exact series of results, Georgia's and Tennessee's conference opponent strength of schedules would actually shoot up to 0.4688 on the year whereas A&M's would now sit at 0.4375.

This would eliminate A&M, with Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would once again put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot.The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

[exhales]

Fun extra bit, that hurricane of disaster would make the SEC standings look like this (pre-conference championship game):

Georgia: 10-2 (or 9-3, though I wouldn't really bank on Georgia Tech beating them)
Tennessee: 10-2
Texas A&M: 9-3
South Carolina: 8-4 (or 9-3, depending on the Clemson game)
Texas: 9-3
Alabama: 9-3
Florida:7-5
Vanderbilt: 7-5
Mississippi: 8-4
Arkansas: 7-5
Oklahoma: 7-5
LSU: 6-6
Missouri: 7-5
Mississippi State: 4-8
Auburn: 5-7
Kentucky: 5-7 (or 6-6, depending on the Louisville game)

 

[901 Orange]

Has absolutely no effect relative to TN when it comes to the tie-breaking picture. Tennessee didn't play Missouri (so their outcome, be it 9-3 or 7-5, doesn't effect Tennessee's conference opponent strength of schedule).

With only 2 games left, the gap between the conference opponent strength of schedule of the teams Missouri did play (namely A&M and Alabama), is pretty close to fixed...both are pretty far ahead of Tennessee's (Alabama's is looking to finish above .500, A&M's is looking to finish around .440-.450, while Tennessee's is likely looking to finish somewhere in the .300s, with it likely being around .350...it can potentially hit around .450-.460, but that requires a clusterf--k next week results-wise, and if Tennessee ends up with an individual tiebreaker with Texas A&M, it would lose the common opponents tiebreaker - consisting of Florida, Arkansas, and Mississippi State 2-1).

I was talking about in regards to Bama and the tiebreaker they currently hold that would send them to the SECCG. If Mizzou losses the next 2 then their strength of schedule changes which I assume would change the tiebreaker method.

 

[901 Orange]

Missouri has 3 losses and is out of the picture.

I'm not talking about Mizzou being in the picture. I'm talking about Bama's strength of schedule changing if Mizzou doesn't win their last 2. My impression is Bama has the tiebreaker right now because of their schedule, Mizzou losing to State & Arkansa would change that

 

[wtmvol]

My apologies. For some reason I misread the quoted post and thought it was one of my posts. My bad.

No worries. I appreciated the info, because I was wondering if we even had a chance.

F^&%'n Arkansas...