App to calculate SEC championship tie breakers

#26
#26
901 Orange said:
I was talking about in regards to Bama and the tiebreaker they currently hold that would send them to the SECCG. If Mizzou losses the next 2 then their strength of schedule changes which I assume would change the tiebreaker method.
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The lowest Alabama's win percentage can drop off of Missouri's games alone (ie, their next to games being losses) is about .0312. (If things go as expected save those two ganes, Alabama's conference opponent SOS only drops from .5156 to .4844...a number Tennessee's conference opponent SOS couldn't even hit in the best case scenario for it (at best Tennessee can hit .4688, and that's in a scenario that involves Alabama losing another game)

The bigger things, though, are pretty much that (1) Alabama's conference opponent SOS is already very high and (2) most of the games in the next 2 weeks won't effect it.

Looking at the remaining SEC games that don't involve Alabama itself, Alabama didn't play Florida or Ole Miss, they didn't play Texas or Kentucky, they didn't play Ole Miss or Miss State, and the didn't play Texas and Texas A&M. On top of that, they played both LSU and Vandy, they played both LSU and Oklahoma, and they played both Tennessee and Vandy...making the results of all of those three games moot to their conference opponent SOS.
 
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#27
#27
901 Orange said:
I'm not talking about Mizzou being in the picture. I'm talking about Bama's strength of schedule changing if Mizzou doesn't win their last 2. My impression is Bama has the tiebreaker right now because of their schedule, Mizzou losing to State & Arkansa would change that
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I agree on that. Still, Missouri is, at worse, 7-5.
 
#30
#30
4 sec teams are going to be in the playoffs. No 3 loss team regular season team is going to make it. If Texas beats the Aggies and Florida beats Mississippi and we win out we will be in. Also other scenarios possible include Notre dame losing and Indiana getting clobbered by Ohio State. Edit: Excuse me I see you were talking about SEC championship game my bad. Yes lots has to happen for that for sure. GBO
 
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#31
#31
TrueOrange said:
Before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario...it requires a 4-team tie with Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (as a 4-way tie would be created between Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss at 6-2, with the tiebreaker being based on the record vs common conference opponents Kentucky, Florida, and Mississippi State, with Georgia and Tennessee both being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), (having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot. The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

But I think that might be absolutely it.

Edit: Welp, I found an actual second one...and boy is it it a dandy, involving just every single conference game over the next two weeks.

It would require:

4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
5-5 Florida beating 8-2 Ole Miss
6-4 Vanderbilt beating 6-4 LSU
2-8 Mississippi State beating 7-3 Missouri
5-5 Oklahoma beating 8-2 Alabama
4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas

Followed by:
3-8 Mississippi State beating 8-3 Ole Miss
8-3 Alabama beating 5-6 Auburn
6-5 Oklahoma beatinf 6-5 LSU
6-5 Arkansas beating 7-4 Missouri
8-3 Texas A&M beating 9-2 Texas
And 9-2 Tennessee beating 7-4 Vanderbilt

This absolute storm would result in a three-team tie between Georgia, Texas A&M, and Tennessee for the spots in the SEC Championship Game. As the only common opponents the three share are Florida and Mississippi State (both of whom each team beat), it would go to conference opponent strength of schedules. Thanks to this exact series of results, Georgia's and Tennessee's conference opponent strength of schedules would actually shoot up to 0.4688 on the year whereas A&M's would now sit at 0.4375.

This would eliminate A&M, with Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would once again put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot.The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.
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If the Aggies and Mississippi lose another game they have 3 losses overall. They will be out of the playoffs just like if we lose another game. Still a lot to play out. Edit: Sorry, I didn’t realize you were talking about sec championship scenarios. My bad there, your right on there. My apologies.
 
#32
#32
TrueOrange said:
Before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario...it requires a 4-team tie with Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (as a 4-way tie would be created between Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss at 6-2, with the tiebreaker being based on the record vs common conference opponents Kentucky, Florida, and Mississippi State, with Georgia and Tennessee both being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), (having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot. The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

But I think that might be absolutely it.

Edit: Welp, I found an actual second one...and boy is it it a dandy, involving just every single conference game over the next two weeks.

It would require:

4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
5-5 Florida beating 8-2 Ole Miss
6-4 Vanderbilt beating 6-4 LSU
2-8 Mississippi State beating 7-3 Missouri
5-5 Oklahoma beating 8-2 Alabama
4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas

Followed by:
3-8 Mississippi State beating 8-3 Ole Miss
8-3 Alabama beating 5-6 Auburn
6-5 Oklahoma beatinf 6-5 LSU
6-5 Arkansas beating 7-4 Missouri
8-3 Texas A&M beating 9-2 Texas
And 9-2 Tennessee beating 7-4 Vanderbilt

This absolute storm would result in a three-team tie between Georgia, Texas A&M, and Tennessee for the spots in the SEC Championship Game. As the only common opponents the three share are Florida and Mississippi State (both of whom each team beat), it would go to conference opponent strength of schedules. Thanks to this exact series of results, Georgia's and Tennessee's conference opponent strength of schedules would actually shoot up to 0.4688 on the year whereas A&M's would now sit at 0.4375.

This would eliminate A&M, with Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would once again put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot.The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.
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dumb-and-dumber-comedy.gif
 
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#33
#33
Woodlawn VOL said:
4 sec teams are going to be in the playoffs. No 3 loss team regular season team is going to make it. If Texas beats the Aggies and Florida beats Mississippi and we win out we will be in. Also other scenarios possible include Notre dame losing and Indiana getting clobbered by Ohio State. Edit: Excuse me I see you were talking about SEC championship game my bad. Yes lots has to happen for that for sure. GBO
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I think a 1 loss, clobbered or not, Indiana will get in.
 
#34
#34
Assuming a highly inconsistent Alabama team will just beat a rival coached by their nemesis is pretty bold regardless of how bad Auburn may be.
 
#37
#37
TrueOrange said:
Before someone asks, yes Tennessee does have a scenario...it requires a 4-team tie with Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (as a 4-way tie would be created between Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss at 6-2, with the tiebreaker being based on the record vs common conference opponents Kentucky, Florida, and Mississippi State, with Georgia and Tennessee both being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), (having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot. The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

But I think that might be absolutely it.

Edit: Welp, I found an actual second one...and boy is it it a dandy, involving just every single conference game over the next two weeks.

It would require:

4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
5-5 Florida beating 8-2 Ole Miss
6-4 Vanderbilt beating 6-4 LSU
2-8 Mississippi State beating 7-3 Missouri
5-5 Oklahoma beating 8-2 Alabama
4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas

Followed by:
3-8 Mississippi State beating 8-3 Ole Miss
8-3 Alabama beating 5-6 Auburn
6-5 Oklahoma beatinf 6-5 LSU
6-5 Arkansas beating 7-4 Missouri
8-3 Texas A&M beating 9-2 Texas
And 9-2 Tennessee beating 7-4 Vanderbilt

This absolute storm would result in a three-team tie between Georgia, Texas A&M, and Tennessee for the spots in the SEC Championship Game. As the only common opponents the three share are Florida and Mississippi State (both of whom each team beat), it would go to conference opponent strength of schedules. Thanks to this exact series of results, Georgia's and Tennessee's conference opponent strength of schedules would actually shoot up to 0.4688 on the year whereas A&M's would now sit at 0.4375.

This would eliminate A&M, with Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would once again put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot.The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.
Click to expand...


So you're saying we have a chance?
 
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#38
#38
wtmvol said:
Possible? I guess. Far-fetched? Extremely!

The very first thing on the list of what must happen (Kentucky beating Texas on the road) has a 5.3% chance of happening according to the ESPN game predictor. This isn't the same team that beat Ole Miss. They've lost 4 straight SEC games since then and lost by double digits in 3 of them. The other things that must go right aren't as daunting, but getting those ALL to happen in conjunction with Kentucky remembering how to play football has <1% chance of happening.

I'm going to spend my energy pulling against Ole Miss because that leads to a much more realistic scenario of making the playoffs (not the SEC Championship).
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I don't disagree with you there.

I would say that I do agree with the prediction that both UTx and A&M are out of the CFP no matter which way that goes.

If A&M beats UTx, then loses to UGA, they are the SEC runner up with 3 losses, which means likely out.

If Texas wins, A&M has 3 losses and they are out. UTx is likely out as well because in the end, they too would have two losses. If UTx beats A&M but then loses in the 'Ship to UGA, when compared to the other 2-loss SEC teams, including UT, the Longhorns come in last place. Having lost to both UGA and A&M, they don't have a single quality win.

By default, UT is still in the CFP in either of the scenario.

Of course, one of those two could win the SEC Championship Game Then, the outcome would likely be something entirely different.

Go Vols!
 
#39
#39
TrueOrange said:
You linked it incorrectly...it's leading to an internal service error screen

mred's SEC FB Standings Generator

Southeastern Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net

Also - with the multiple team tiebreaker leading to conference opponent winning percentage - Alabama would be the second team in regardless of whether Texas beats TAMU or TAMU beats Texas.
Click to expand...
Thanks for fixing!
 
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#43
#43
It won’t be long before there is no championship game and the tiebreakers will be used to determine to simply determine the champ. As soon as they do that we will have two undefeated SEC teams and have more crying.
 
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