Are the Lady Vols an Elite Eight Team?

[Majors]

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14th in NET

#1 in our hearts

 

[VolFuture]

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#1 in our hearts

True

 

[ocoandasoc]

Depending on what happens between now and selection day, the Lady Vols are almost certain to be a 5, 6, or 7 seed. (I believe a 5 or 6 seed is most likely. They'd have to beat SC twice to earn a 4 or make an early SEC tourney exit to drop to a 7.) Regardless of which way it winds up, barring an unlikely first round upset they would have to beat a 2, 3 or 4 seed on their opponent's home court just to make the Sweet 16.

I don't believe the current AP or Creme ratings will hold up for a few of the over-ranked teams when the Committee does their seedings. But even taking Creme's seeding guesses, as a 6 seed TN would face Va Tech, Notre Dame, Duke, or Michigan, each on their home courts where they have a combined 46 – 6 record, just to get to the Sweet 16. If that sounds formidable, consider that as a seventh seed they'd have to beat Iowa, Utah, LSU or Maryland on their home courts where they have a combined 51-3 record, with two of those losses being to UConn and South Carolina, to make the Sweet 16.

How many of the twelve 5, 6, 7 or 8 seed teams made the Sweet 16 last year? Three. Two 5's, one 6, Zero 7's or 8's. None of the 5, 6 or 7 seed teams made the Elite 8. Six 5 and 6 seeds made the Sweet 16 in 2021 – but there were no home court advantages that year due to Covid. In 2019 three 5 and 6 seeds made it and in 2018 only two made it. In 2017 a single 5 seeded team made the Sweet 16.

But here's some sort-of good news. The last 7 seeded teams to make the Sweet 16 were Washington in 2016 when they upset Maryland, Kentucky, and Stanford to get to the Final Four thanks to a trio of players named Plum, Walton and Osahor. Tennessee was also a 7 seed that year – their lowest ever in a year when they were ranked #4 in the pre-season polls – and struggled to beat Green Bay in the first round, but were led by Diamond DeShields in a second round win against Arizona State and by Mercedes Russel in a third round win against a very short-handed Ohio State team to reach the Elite 8 where they lost to Syracuse by 22 (who then beat Washington by 21 before losing to UConn by 31).

So, as others have stated, a 5, 6, or 7 seed is not where you'd want to be, but it can be overcome.

 

[Volstylexx]

Depending on what happens between now and selection day, the Lady Vols are almost certain to be a 5, 6, or 7 seed. (I believe a 5 or 6 seed is most likely. They'd have to beat SC twice to earn a 4 or make an early SEC tourney exit to drop to a 7.) Regardless of which way it winds up, barring an unlikely first round upset they would have to beat a 2, 3 or 4 seed on their opponent's home court just to make the Sweet 16.

I don't believe the current AP or Creme ratings will hold up for a few of the over-ranked teams when the Committee does their seedings. But even taking Creme's seeding guesses, as a 6 seed TN would face Va Tech, Notre Dame, Duke, or Michigan, each on their home courts where they have a combined 46 – 6 record, just to get to the Sweet 16. If that sounds formidable, consider that as a seventh seed they'd have to beat Iowa, Utah, LSU or Maryland on their home courts where they have a combined 51-3 record, with two of those losses being to UConn and South Carolina, to make the Sweet 16.

How many of the twelve 5, 6, 7 or 8 seed teams made the Sweet 16 last year? Three. Two 5's, one 6, Zero 7's or 8's. None of the 5, 6 or 7 seed teams made the Elite 8. Six 5 and 6 seeds made the Sweet 16 in 2021 – but there were no home court advantages that year due to Covid. In 2019 three 5 and 6 seeds made it and in 2018 only two made it. In 2017 a single 5 seeded team made the Sweet 16.

But here's some sort-of good news. The last 7 seeded teams to make the Sweet 16 were Washington in 2016 when they upset Maryland, Kentucky, and Stanford to get to the Final Four thanks to a trio of players named Plum, Walton and Osahor. Tennessee was also a 7 seed that year – their lowest ever in a year when they were ranked #4 in the pre-season polls – and struggled to beat Green Bay in the first round, but were led by Diamond DeShields in a second round win against Arizona State and by Mercedes Russel in a third round win against a very short-handed Ohio State team to reach the Elite 8 where they lost to Syracuse by 22 (who then beat Washington by 21 before losing to UConn by 31).

So, as others have stated, a 5, 6, or 7 seed is not where you'd want to be, but it can be overcome.

As a stats guy, I love all the great info in that post! Those home court records don't bode well for us getting out of that opening weekend.