Are we headed for a double dip? Or worse?

[VolsNSkinsFan]

repeal Dodd-Frank for one thing. 2700 pages of new lending regulations has put a wet blanket on job growth.

end the NLRB's lawsuit against Boeing. Nothing says you're against job creation like suing a company that actually wants to create American jobs, just not union jobs.

The sad thing about this whole NLRB thing is that its hurting an American Company thats holds a huge advantage over its competitors. We should be encouraging industries like Boeing to grow/expand and create good paying jobs, but NO we have to tie one hand around their back and tell them to swim

I cant WAIT till November 2012 to get these Clowns out of office. This administration is such a joke.

 

[mtt2d]

I am starting to wonder if there is any correlation at all, to tell you the truth. We had plenty of gain for the year (through last night, even) and unemployment ticked up slightly.

All of this gain is now gone, or looks like it will be gone. Companies will have to cut expenses somewhere, and during the last recession, it seemed that most of the cuts came from reducing the number of employees.

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

Plenty of gain? Yea we added +50K fry guys at McDs. Strike up the Band!

 

[lawgator1]

When I said "plenty of gain" I meant in the market indexes. Up, what, like 10 percent not too long ago?

My point was that while the stock market was up a decent amount, reflecting greater corporate profits and valuations, the unemployment rate held steady or ticked up a bit. Would be better for long term health of the market, don;t you think, if the unemployment numbers fell.

I'm trying to figure out how we get the $ in the market valuations to compel, cause, or translate, into growth on the ground, so to speak.

 

[tigervol9802]

When I said "plenty of gain" I meant in the market indexes. Up, what, like 10 percent not too long ago?

My point was that while the stock market was up a decent amount, reflecting greater corporate profits and valuations, the unemployment rate held steady or ticked up a bit. Would be better for long term health of the market, don;t you think, if the unemployment numbers fell.

I'm trying to figure out how we get the $ in the market valuations to compel, cause, or translate, into growth on the ground, so to speak.

I thought current unemployment numbers were the "new normal"?

 

[droski]

We are talking about different things You are saying investment capital for equities would jump in with a lower rate. I'm talking about the huge warchests have amassed but won't use to hire or build.


How do we get them to hire people and expand ?
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Ummm capital gains rates apply for all investments, not just equities.
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[droski]

When I said "plenty of gain" I meant in the market indexes. Up, what, like 10 percent not too long ago?

My point was that while the stock market was up a decent amount, reflecting greater corporate profits and valuations, the unemployment rate held steady or ticked up a bit. Would be better for long term health of the market, don;t you think, if the unemployment numbers fell.

I'm trying to figure out how we get the $ in the market valuations to compel, cause, or translate, into growth on the ground, so to speak.

Market was not up because of corporate profits. Its up because a) the fed has forced people to stop hording cash because money market rates are at zero and b) the world didn't end.
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[VOLatile]

How can stability occur if no one takes risks to begin with? (I skipped 2 pages)

 

[99gator]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTbjcKZzrmM[/youtube]

 

[99gator]

this guy is a democrat by the way

 

[Vol423]

Market Report - Aug. 4, 2011 - CNNMoney

"Total fear" in the markets. If the unemployment number is for the third month in a row worse than expected, what happens tomorrow morning?

I went on the record on 6/5/2010 in the following post.

http://www.volnation.com/forum/politics/102674-odds-double-dip.html

What do you guys think? I believe that the definition of a double dip is that we have a number of quarters of growth, that makes it look like we are out of recession, but that then there is a retreat of a quarter or two of negative growth.
The market seems to me to be in a double dip pattern, having reached close to 11k and now going backawards, and in fact today back below 10k.
Still, if the fundamentals are good and growth continues, I don't think what the market does fits the double dip definition.
So what are the odds we see some negative growth here in coming quaters?

I think the double dip is inevitable. The private sector still isn't hiring, and that is the key. Continued unemployment at these levels is going to result in another explosion in mortgage defaults and yet another collapse of the real estate market. Things are going to get much worse over the next two years.

 

[NEO]

Double dip?

if we're lucky that's all that will happen.

 

[Cartervol]

I don't think it ever ended.

 

[sjt18]

I'm not saying that they are "bad guys." I'm just saying that the demand side of things is kind of steady and has been solid in certain areas, and there's just a ton of money sitting on the sidelines and we have to figure out a way to get that money into expansion. Offices here in Orlando sit empty but the top end restaurants are packed, the whole thing is just so discordant.

Reduce tax rates and simplify the code.

Reverse the Obama aggression against businesses through regulation.

Repeal Obamacare completely.

Bring the debt and deficit now to bring more certainty to the long term market.

Cut most or all of the new federal jobs Obama created as soon as possible. That sounds counter intuitive but the costs of those jobs is a net drag on the economy since they are not wealth producing jobs.

Those would be good starts to getting businesses to invest. Obama's policies have almost uniformly been harmful or else created uncertainty for businesses.

 

[lawgator1]

Reduce tax rates and simplify the code.

Reverse the Obama aggression against businesses through regulation.

Repeal Obamacare completely.

Bring the debt and deficit now to bring more certainty to the long term market.

Cut most or all of the new federal jobs Obama created as soon as possible. That sounds counter intuitive but the costs of those jobs is a net drag on the economy since they are not wealth producing jobs.

Those would be good starts to getting businesses to invest. Obama's policies have almost uniformly been harmful or else created uncertainty for businesses.

I am confused.

 

[tigervol9802]

If they really wanted to intice some investment, they could also cap tax rates on partnership and S-corp flow-through income at say, 20%.

 

[sjt18]

I am confused.

Imagine you are running a business that is going broke. You discover that you have a whole bunch of people whose jobs produce no net benefit to the company some even result in unnecessary inefficiencies. For the long term survival and growth of your company, you have to make a choice. Do you go broke and leave those people in unproductive or even counterproductive jobs? Or do you let them go (at least until you have a productive job for them)?

We are currently paying ALOT of people to not work. We are currently paying ALOT of other people to pay people not to work. We are currently paying ALOT of people to make it hard for businesses to work.

All of these people take a salary and "consume"... but in reality they put nothing back in the pot.

Another analogy. Imagine a simple farming village. Imagine that increasingly the leadership sees it can gain favor by taking from the productive and giving it to unproductive/underproductive people simply for their votes... requiring no more work. Eventually the productive farmers simply cannot feed everyone. Maybe they can borrow for awhile from neighboring villages but eventually that will run out too.

We must have production of wealth and not all jobs do that. In fact, most gov't jobs either do not do it or else inhibit it. ALL transfer payments are a drag on wealth creation.

 

[utgibbs]

We are watching the End Times of Capitalism. It will, like tuberculosis, linger and waste away its host for awhile. The superstructure has discovered it is a finite planet and there is no more room to maneuver.

We need a new economy, a steady state economy. We must stop the wealth redistribution as it is vacuumed to the top. We must restore wildness to the Earth and her ecosystems. We must work less for The Man and more for ourselves. We must consume far less.

We cannot have expansion; we cannot have deep polarization; we cannot have fantasy. We need to get down and dirty with the real world outside the back door.

 

[TruthIsOutThere]

When I said "plenty of gain" I meant in the market indexes. Up, what, like 10 percent not too long ago?

My point was that while the stock market was up a decent amount, reflecting greater corporate profits and valuations, the unemployment rate held steady or ticked up a bit. Would be better for long term health of the market, don;t you think, if the unemployment numbers fell.

I'm trying to figure out how we get the $ in the market valuations to compel, cause, or translate, into growth on the ground, so to speak.

I don't think market health has much to do with main street health. Shipping jobs overseas can boost corporate profits and cause stock price increases.

 

[utgibbs]

Steve Wynn, the champion of junk bonds. The creator of the new Las Vegas - the ultimate expression of post-modernity, shallowness - the ultimate simulacra of real life.

It's great to see him in this thread. There is not a person alive more symbolic of the shambolic state of the economy, of the culture, of late 20th and early 21st century life.

 

[utvolpj]

We are watching the End Times of Capitalism. It will, like tuberculosis, linger and waste away its host for awhile. The superstructure has discovered it is a finite planet and there is no more room to maneuver.

We need a new economy, a steady state economy. We must stop the wealth redistribution as it is vacuumed to the top. We must restore wildness to the Earth and her ecosystems. We must work less for The Man and more for ourselves. We must consume far less.

We cannot have expansion; we cannot have deep polarization; we cannot have fantasy. We need to get down and dirty with the real world outside the back door.

all I can do is laugh now

 

[golfballs]

yeah, steve wynn is a real failure. no way he has any clue what he's talking about

 

[utgibbs]

I hate to say the talk of a "double dip" is simply not cogent.

It has been a Depression since 2007 - 08. Bourgeois economics will not find a way out of it either. We need new ideas, new paradigms, new ways of thinking.

 

[sjt18]

Guys. utgibbs is a fraud. He is a caricature dreamed up by someone who likes to argue the absurd to see the reaction he gets. While it is sometimes fun to play with him... never take him serious. There is no way a person as educated as he is can be as delusional as the character he plays here.

 

[utgibbs]

Guys. utgibbs is a fraud. He is a caricature dreamed up by someone who likes to argue the absurd to see the reaction he gets. While it is sometimes fun to play with him... never take him serious. There is no way a person as educated as he is can be as delusional as the character he plays here.

1. Capitalism, as predicted, is still in its epic failure mode begun in 2007. If we recall, it also failed miserably in 1929. For those paying attention, it has been failing meteorically in most countries around the world. Communist China should offer some clues.

2. We are currently witness to the sixth great extinction event in the planet's history.

3. We do not have warp drive. We have one finite planet (and actually, we will ALWAYS have only one planet. Even on this planet, dirty Europeans with their filthy swine managed to wipe out another continent on the same planet. Even if we had wormholes and warp drives, no other planet will be habitable for us - EVER).

Where is the fraud? Where is the falsity?