Are winners always winners no matter where they are?

#27
#27
knoxvols11 said:
OP-Jones came behind a coach who had already established the program. Now, I know his first year at Cincy wasn't any better than here but he did have it already set to go. He hasn't proven any thing yet.
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Yeah, you are right...Dooley had already established the program.
 
#29
#29
winners being winners regardless of the level of competition is a great question that gets really hashed out during a coaching search.

it is pretty easy to see Urban Meyer dominate in a lesser conference and predict that it will translate to the SEC, but what did LSU see in Saban at MSt, and Miles at OKSt? or did they just get lucky?

someone here did an extensive analysis and concluded that the single most positive predictive factor was having won at least 9 games in a season before coming to the SEC. all of the "successful" SEC coaches in the time period that he looked at met this standard -- Donnan at UGA was the single outlier.

VNs daj has done his own analyses and identified coaches that "punch above their weight" ie consistently win above their talent level.

not surprisingly, CDD fails miserably on both metrics.

hard to believe after this season and especially after the Vandy game, but CBJ measures out quite well on both.
 
#31
#31
tm3 said:
winners being winners regardless of the level of competition is a great question that gets really hashed out during a coaching search.

it is pretty easy to see Urban Meyer dominate in a lesser conference and predict that it will translate to the SEC, but what did LSU see in Saban at MSt, and Miles at OKSt? or did they just get lucky?

someone here did an extensive analysis and concluded that the single most positive predictive factor was having won at least 9 games in a season before coming to the SEC. all of the "successful" SEC coaches in the time period that he looked at met this standard -- Donnan at UGA was the single outlier.

VNs daj has done his own analyses and identified coaches that "punch above their weight" ie consistently win above their talent level.

not surprisingly, CDD fails miserably on both metrics.

hard to believe after this season and especially after the Vandy game, but CBJ measures out quite well on both.
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It would be cool to see those threads if you remember them off the top of your head. Thanks. :hi:
 
#33
#33
DaddyChad said:
It would be cool to see those threads if you remember them off the top of your head. Thanks. :hi:
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i really wish that i had kept the "9 win season" analysis/thread as it was real interesting, but i have tried to dig it up and can't find it. sorry.

the "punching above talent level" stuff is from daj2576. you can do a search on his user name and find all kinds of threads in which he discusses it. given the title of this thread, i would expect him to jump in at some point with comments.
 
#35
#35
fade route said:
:good!: BTW - tell me how good Blacklist is...I need a new show to get in to.
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It's really good. James Spader makes a phenomenal bad guy. He's smart, arrogant, and uber-rich. There's a deeper drama story behind the facade of each episode where they try to catch another "blacklist" criminal, which keeps all the characters intertwined. It's great.

You really need to watch it from the first episode, though.
 
#37
#37
DaddyChad said:
I'm clueless about you guys talent situation at that point. I know ours is pretty pathetic now as we have several walkons, true freshmen, etc starting. How good would you say the talent was there at that time? I would say decent considering the record the following year.
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Assuming the points spread is correlated to talent, Saban's Tide team only beat the spread 3x that year on their way to a 7-6 (6-6 regular season) campaign. Vegas spreads said that Bama was favored (read: should have won) 9 games that year.

Many people will tell you that Bama was "competitive" in their losses, but lets take a closer look at the meaning of "competitive."

In their 6 losses, Vegas had Bama as favorites in 3.

Bama was predicted to beat UL-Monroe by 24, lost by 7.
Bama was predicted to beat Miss. St. by 4, lost by 5.
Bama was predicted to beat UGA by 3, lost by 3.

To me that says that Bama and Saban didn't really keep the losses as close as most want to say, not in terms of expectations. He was expected to win those three games by a combined total of 31 points, but lost by a combined total of 15. Or, that is a -46 point swing from expectation to reality. Remember, Shula beat UL-Monroe the previous year by a score of 41-7.

Conversely, Bama was "expected" to lose 4 games.

Bama was expected to lose to Florida St. by 2.5, lost by 7.
Bama was expected to lose to Tennessee by 1, won by 24.
Bama was expected to lose to LSU by 6.5, lost by 7.
Bama was expected to lose to Auburn by 6, lost by 7.

So, in the expected loss to actual loss category, they actually performed well in aggregate. However, in all but one game they lost by more than their expectations.

Overall they upset a UT team, but were upset by La-Monroe, UGA and Miss. St.

Using Vegas as a similar benchmark, Tennessee has been favored in 4 games, and has covered the spread 4 times with one game remaining.

UT was predicted to beat APSU by 49, won by 45; WKU by 14, won by 30; USA by 16, won by 3; Vanderbilt by 2.5, lost by 4.

Of the predicted losses (Oregon, Florida, Georgia, SCAR, Bama, Mizzou and Auburn) Tennessee was predicted to lose by 110.5 points and lost by 155 points. (predicted to lose by almost 16 points a game, and lost by an aggregate of 22 points per game).

Or, UT upset SCAR and was upset by Vandy using Vegas as a guide.

BAMA
Sports Betting and Gambling Odds Online

UT
Sports Betting and Gambling Odds Online
 
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#39
#39
tm3 said:
i really wish that i had kept the "9 win season" analysis/thread as it was real interesting, but i have tried to dig it up and can't find it. sorry.

the "punching above talent level" stuff is from daj2576. you can do a search on his user name and find all kinds of threads in which he discusses it. given the title of this thread, i would expect him to jump in at some point with comments.
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After what I saw Saturday it is hard to want to talk sense to anyone who is rightfully fuming about the loss to Vandy. With two weeks to prepare, home field advantage and (regardless of what people want to believe) a talent advantage to UT, we couldn't put that game away. I was shocked.

That being said, you are right. CDD failed on any available predictive measure, and CBJ has succeeded using any available predictive measure. It should be noted that this is the FIRST year he has fallen below talent averages, but there might be something amiss here that I am missing (more on that later).

Each year of my analysis, going back to 2005, UT has tended to trend well below talent predictions. UT has been the consistent outlier (with UF amazingly joining the party every other year insofar as talent predictions).

Talent averages have predicted about 80% of the SEC games played, and again UT and UF are the two largest under-performers although those two teams are separated by light-years of magnitude (UT is trending 2 games below, UF is trending 5 in the SEC or going on 7 overall).

On to what might be amiss at UT. I read some statements that made my heart sink this week, attributed to the O-line. Apparently the O-line (and probably many other players) have spent their time at UT prior to Jones goofing off, not lifting weights and not attempting to improve. If the comments are correct, and my extrapolation from those comments is correct, we have 3 classes who have never really been driven to improve. There is no telling how long that culture has existed at UT. From the players remarks about Jones, that isn't tolerated NOW, but that might begin to explain why our talent this year, is still trending as an under-performance. If Jones can develop players, and his history suggests that he can at a measurable rate, then the long term future is very bright, but the short term future will be rocky. I don't know how he, or anyone, can undue years of bad strength training, lack of effort, or bad coaching/coaching turn-over, without simply replacing those players. If we sign all 30+ in February, that will mean that on a roster of 85 Jones has about 50 players that he has recruited and have been training in his system. That will go a long way, but cannot be substituted for players in one system, who have been diligently progressing for 3-4 years.

Talent average predictions v. actual performance spreadhseet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkwyQgwl-hyfdEpwUHpyWXUzY3JWRFU1Skc1UTRiZ2c&usp=sharing
 
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#40
#40
DD4ME said:
He was beaten by Dooley, not many coaches in that category.
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Franklin was beaten by Dooley and, like it or not, he is the second largest over-performing coach in the SEC. He and Pinkel are doing amazing and explainable things.
 
#41
#41
daj2576 said:
On to what might be amiss at UT. I read some statements that made my heart sink this week, attributed to the O-line. Apparently the O-line (and probably many other players) have spent their time at UT prior to Jones goofing off, not lifting weights and not attempting to improve. If the comments are correct, and my extrapolation from those comments is correct, we have 3 classes who have never really been driven to improve. There is no telling how long that culture has existed at UT. From the players remarks about Jones, that isn't tolerated NOW, but that might begin to explain why our talent this year, is still trending as an under-performance. If Jones can develop players, and his history suggests that he can at a measurable rate, then the long term future is very bright, but the short term future will be rocky. I don't know how he, or anyone, can undue years of bad strength training, lack of effort, or bad coaching/coaching turn-over, without simply replacing those players. If we sign all 30+ in February, that will mean that on a roster of 85 Jones has about 50 players that he has recruited and have been training in his system. That will go a long way, but cannot be substituted for players in one system, who have been diligently progressing for 3-4 years.
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I have no idea how valid any of that is but I have no doubts at all that some of these players have perfected the art of throwing in a towel. That's where the Vandy's of the world whip yo ass.
 
#42
#42
If you're in a BCS conference and didn't play in a BCS bowl, you didn't win your conference. There is no such thing as a "co-championship."
 
#43
#43
SGMVols said:
If you're in a BCS conference and didn't play in a BCS bowl, you didn't win your conference. There is no such thing as a "co-championship."
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i tend to agree with you re CBJs co-co and co-co-co "championships" of the 7 team Big Least being rather weak.

however, many here have long touted majors as having an overall better UT coaching record than fulmer, arguing that johnny's co- and co-co plus one outright SEC title (for a total of 3, with an *) are a larger total than fulmer's two undisputed SECC.
 
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