Article: Gas prices going up because of COVID...

#51
#51
Orangeburst said:
Dont't run away now...I wanted to hear your views. Sure oil is a commodity and a nation uses it's commodity leverage as much as possible. There is a reason we we spent so much blood and treasure in the ME for decades.

Sure, COVID negatively impacted national production basis demand and COP. Actually, the cut by SA is a boost to the higher production cost in the US...at this time, but benefits them with more revenue now that our spigot is being squeezed and lagged production and politcal directives. The danged dance of we need u but we control how you protect us.

My point being that long term there is nothing good with decreasing your ability to manipulate such a vital ecomomic commodity. SA has decades of experience and we are handing it away.
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I certainly wouldn't have to run away from a geriatric like you. I could walk, and you'd never catch me (that's a joke for your 'kid' remark).

The first post of mine to which you replied was directed to someone who posted an article projecting a 12% increase in gas prices and he said, " Biden administration....plain and simple." In other words "blue man bad". I pointed out that global oil prices, and thus gas prices, are not plain and simple. That's where you jumped in.

I don't know what views of mine you want to hear. If it is specific to this thread, my views are the greatest cause to the recent 10 to 15 cent spike in gas prices is the production cut by SA. I say that because I was watching the WTI ticker during that OPEC meeting and saw the spike in real time when the cut was announced. Anyone blaming this price spike on Biden is lazy and looking for a scapegoat, in my opinion.

More broadly, I think Biden will be bad for the energy sector. I disagree with him on Keystone XL. Hell, I disagree with him on most of his views, but I think his impact is more limited by global factors than many seem to.

I think most are in agreement that he will not be friendly to the oil and gas industry, but I think he will also be bad for alternatives/renewables. From an equities standpoint, I think there will certainly be winners in this sector, but he will have his thumb too heavily on the scale which will cause inefficiency long term. It is my view that the market should dictate innovation and hold corporations accountable based on their performance. GM announced a target of 2035 to phase out gas and diesel vehicles. I applaud them for making that known and believe the market should hold them accountable. If you believe in that strategy, invest in GM and buy a Chevy. If you don't, find other options. My concern is the Biden administration will incent or punish based on regulating this progression. Our best innovations come out of hunger rather than comfort. The gov intervening gives too much comfort to corporations by providing a backstop to poor performance.

Back to oil, I don't see anything yet that makes me think we have reduced our ability to impact the market. We're at an inherent disadvantage in that SA production is profitable in the high teens. Our shale producers range from the 40's to 90's. We have a large amount of production currently capped due to economics (supply glut and diminished demand) rather than gov intervention. When the economics make sense, many of those wells can, and will, come back online.

We need to see consolidation in our oil industry to reduce production costs. We should sell every drop we can profitably while there is still a market. the landscape will look very different in 20-40 years. I think we have most likely already passed our peak oil demand as a nation with the move toward EVs and the transition to telecommuting. I also think that we are approaching our peak demand globally. China and other EMs still trend upward, but they are mandating EVs which should turn that trend downward.

Just my two cents.
 
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#52
#52
Rasputin_Vol said:
I could see a recovery from covid pushing up demand and leading to prices going high, but explain this...
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I think the portion in between your highlighted statements is equally important to their point as the parts you highlighted. I read that as them saying that if the economy continues to recover from covid and the ensuing response, gas prices will move higher.
 
#53
#53
NEO said:
Fracking on federal lands is the start so far.

The pipeline will get rerouted via Berkshire but it will cost more and the cost will be built back into the final cost.

It's also literally like a week in.

I assume off shore drilling will be next.
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Those things do not shut down production.
 
#54
#54
How does this work?

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#56
#56
NEO said:
They add cost.

And yes, if he does go after offshore drilling that will shut down production.
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Oh, are you saying that he is shutting down production where there is no production? How does that add costs? Not trying to put words into your mouth, but I think you are misrepresenting the situation. The fact is that companies have enough leases already for drilling far into the foreseeable future. Add the reality that there are countless wells already drilled and capped, i.e. drilled but not producing. It is no secret that companies cap wells, new and old, when prices get too low for their desired profit margins. Why aren't you complaining about that? I think you are just spouting partisan propaganda with no concern whatsoever about it being true or false.
 
#57
#57
Vol Main said:
Oh, are you saying that he is shutting down production where there is no production? How does that add costs? Not trying to put words into your mouth, but I think you are misrepresenting the situation. The fact is that companies have enough leases already for drilling far into the foreseeable future. Add the reality that there are countless wells already drilled and capped, i.e. drilled but not producing. It is no secret that companies cap wells, new and old, when prices get too low for their desired profit margins. Why aren't you complaining about that? I think you are just spouting partisan propaganda with no concern whatsoever about it being true or false.
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You went from government interference to corp decision making in literally one post to somehow help your stance.

I can't stand debating people who move goalpost.

The two should be debated separately. But shutting down future permits does allow for OPEC to have more control on the foreseeable market share.
 
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#58
#58
NEO said:
You went from government interference to corp decision making in literally one post to somehow help your stance.

I can't stand debating people who move goalpost.

The two should be debated separately. But shutting down future permits does allow for OPEC to have more control on the foreseeable market share.
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Oh I'm sorry. I thought that you raised the price of oil. How did I move that goalpost? I didn't, because the fact is that oil companies drill wells with no plans for putting them into near term production. Lookit, I've worked with the oil industry, on pipelines, drilling wells, production platforms, and refineries. If you want to talk to me about the price of oil, I am going to talk to you about reality, not just your isolated propaganda bullets.
 
#59
#59
Vol Main said:
Oh I'm sorry. I thought that you raised the price of oil. How did I move that goalpost? I didn't, because the fact is that oil companies drill wells with no plans for putting them into near term production. Lookit, I've worked with the oil industry, on pipelines, drilling wells, production platforms, and refineries. If you want to talk to me about the price of oil, I am going to talk to you about reality, not just your isolated propaganda bullets.
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Does working in a plant that makes pipe qualify you to say you worked in all these industries just because they use pipe?
 
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#60
#60
Vol Main said:
Oh I'm sorry. I thought that you raised the price of oil. How did I move that goalpost? I didn't, because the fact is that oil companies drill wells with no plans for putting them into near term production. Lookit, I've worked with the oil industry, on pipelines, drilling wells, production platforms, and refineries. If you want to talk to me about the price of oil, I am going to talk to you about reality, not just your isolated propaganda bullets.
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If you have two competitors and one competitor (Opec) has a country completely behind them and the other competitor has a country doing it's best to shut them down then the first competitor has a major advantage.

You can spin this however you want and talk about business decisions but the fact is this helps OPEC.

Sorry you can't see this. Multiple people have tried to explain it to you. I am done here though. Have a good one.
 
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#61
#61
NEO said:
If you have two competitors and one competitor (Opec) has a country completely behind them and the other competitor has a country doing it's best to shut them down then the first competitor has a major advantage.

You can spin this however you want and talk about business decisions but the fact is this helps OPEC.

Sorry you can't see this. Multiple people have tried to explain it to you. I am done here though. Have a good one.
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You must like that word, spin, because you have no other reason to use it, here. You talk as if all of the oil producing countries pump and sell oil at their maximum capacity, and you ought to know that is not true. You also talk as if none of the OPEC nations are heavily invested in our economy. You should know better. Are you suggesting that we have no leverage with oil prices except our own production? You even talk as if you would prefer living in a kingdom instead of a democratic republic. I doubt that, so why are you arguing in favor of a corrupt kingdom over our system of government?
 
#64
#64
Vol Main said:
Oh I'm sorry. I thought that you raised the price of oil. How did I move that goalpost? I didn't, because the fact is that oil companies drill wells with no plans for putting them into near term production. Lookit, I've worked with the oil industry, on pipelines, drilling wells, production platforms, and refineries. If you want to talk to me about the price of oil, I am going to talk to you about reality, not just your isolated propaganda bullets.
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Ummmm...Covid has been in play since the spring of last year...STFU!
 
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