Basketball Rankings + early SEC results (long)

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MikeHamiltonFan

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#1
First thought is that my favorite place to look at basketball rankings is cbssports.com because it is so easy to switch to various ones. I link the Coaches poll:

NCAA College Basketball Rankings - Coaches Poll - CBSSports.com

Michigan State is now 9 and UNC is 11 and I do not think anyone who knows much about basketball would say that either team even if they are the loser of the game between them this week is out of the running for a number 1 seed.

Kentucky is at 4.
UK has not been punished for close wins against inferior opponents. Long Beach State could beat them, but the hard thing to figure out is if they will beat UNC and UConn with their absurd talent and become #1 over Kansas or if they lose to UNC, UConn, LBSU and Louisville and end up dropping out of the top 25 before conference play. Either scenario is possible.
Dec 5 North Carolina 12:30 PM
Dec 9 @Connecticut 9:30 PM
Dec 12 @Indiana 12:00 PM
Jan 2 Louisville 3:30 PM

Tennessee is at 12.
TN dropped but was not punished too badly for losing to a top 10 team by 1 point on a neutral floor. It should make us all proud that people complain now about 17 point wins. ETSU could beat TN, USC looks horrible this year but I think as a fan if you are satisfied with anything less than winning all the remaining OOC games except Kansas you are setting your standards too low. Memphis gets to play Syracuse and Gonzaga after they play us, but when you watched them lose to Kansas on the road by 3 points it made you feel like Pastner has a very talented bunch that could beat us.
Dec 31 @Memphis 4:00 PM
Jan 10 Kansas 1:30 PM

Florida is at 17
Florida beat Michigan State and the win was poo pooed by many on here, but they also absolutely humiliated the Florida State team that just won their early season tournament and are 27th in the coaches poll. They still have great matchups and could be ranked pretty highly headed into conference play.
Dec 10 Syracuse 9:00 PM
Dec 19 Richmond 6:30 PM
Jan 3 @N.C. State 3:00 PM

Vanderbilt is out of the coaches poll for now. They beat St. Mary's on the road and Arizona without dramatic help from their highly touted freshman. If they lose only one of the remaining games prior to conference play (which I think is likely) they will be ranked in the top 25 again. Their only loss is to a Cincinatti team that is ranked and should remain that way. Here is Vanderbilt's remaining schedule prior to conference play.
Dec 2 Missouri 9:30 PM
Dec 5 DePaul 4:00 PM
Dec 8 @Illinois 8:30 PM
and 6 games they should win all of.

South Carolina has one loss to a Miami team that may end up ranked. During that game they had their best power player in Archie out for most of it. Dominique Archie has a sprained MCL and there is no timetable on his return as far as I know. Still they have opportunities to get some respect still. They beat South Florida in a nice win on the road. They have:
Dec 6 @Clemson 1:00 PM
Dec 16 Richmond 7:00 PM
Dec 30 @Boston College 9:00 PM
Jan 2 Baylor 1:00 PM
along with some teams they should definitely beat badly.
I am sure people will say they have no shot at winning those games, these will probably be the same people who told me that UF was awful.

Georgia is absolutely terrible...

The SEC East has more quality teams this year than the SEC as a whole had last year. 4 teams are almost certainly heading to the NCAA tournament.

The SEC West is dealing with troubles.

Ole Miss looks like an NCAA team. They lost at Villanova, but they will pile up wins against all the teams remaining OOC except for the only big game they have left Dec 23 @West Virginia.

Miss State has looked pretty bad without Sidney and if he is not cleared it is hard to see them doing well in conference play and making the tournament. They have a truly terrible loss to Rider to start the season but their loss to Richmond was by 1 point to a Spiders team that is good. At 4-2 they get:
Dec 5 St. Bonaventure
Dec 10 DePaul 6:30 PM
Dec 12 @UCLA 4:30 PM
And then 6 more until conference play I see them winning. With UCLA being as young as they are, they could potentially win all 3 games. If Sidney is cleared I would expect them to. If they can win 2-3 they could have a less than stellar SEC season (8 wins before the conference tournament) and be at 20 wins and looking at a possible tournament spot.

Alabama just got a big OOC win when they beat Michigan. They do not have a bad loss on their schedule, they lost to Cornel and FSU at home but those are good teams I expect to certainly be in the tournament. They also beat Providence and Baylor on the road. They would enter conference play at a very respectable 10-4 even if they dropped both of the bigger games they have left,Dec 12 Purdue at home and Dec 19 Kansas St. 8:30 PM

LSU is very hard for me to figure out. Drilled by UConn and Arizona State, and watching them play they look so short handed that it seems like they will struggle mightily in the SEC portion of the schedule. They could get 6-7 more wins before SEC play starts against bad teams but it hard to see clear victories in the remaining big games:
Dec 22 @Washington St. 10:00 PM
Dec 29 @Xavier 7:00 PM
Jan 2 Utah 8:00 PM


Arkansas has players hurt and players suspended. They have possible rapists and Pelphrey may not make it all the way through the season if they keep playing like this. OOC left includes Dec 2 @Oklahoma 8:00 PM Dec 30 @Baylor 9:00 PM
Jan 2 UAB 8:00 PM
Jan 5 Texas 7:00 PM
and with the horrible losses they have had to the likes of ETSU, you do not assume that they can beat the lesser teams I left off. They have not only been losing, they have been losing badly.


Auburn is terrible. Claim to fame is losing by 2 to NC State. They may end up being better than Arkansas this year though.

The SEC West could potentially have 3 NCAA tournament teams from the top 3 group but that is very unlikely. They may end up with just 1.

5 or 6 SEC teams make the tournament and we will be a much better conference than the PAC 10, and we may be better at the end of the year than the Big 10 (which I am claiming) but will still lag a good bit behind the Big East, the ACC and perhaps the Big 12. Not bad at all.

"The season is a marathon not a sprint" John Wooden

"Suck it Trebek" Burt Reynolds as played by Will Ferrel.
 
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#2
#2
If you would actually read the John Wooden quote, your predictions would be much different and more realistic.
 
#3
#3
First thought is that my favorite place to look at basketball rankings is cbssports.com because it is so easy to switch to various ones. I link the Coaches poll:

NCAA College Basketball Rankings - Coaches Poll - CBSSports.com

Michigan State is now 9 and UNC is 11 and I do not think anyone who knows much about basketball would say that either team even if they are the loser of the game between them this week is out of the running for a number 1 seed.

Kentucky is at 4.
UK has not been punished for close wins against inferior opponents. Long Beach State could beat them, but the hard thing to figure out is if they will beat UNC and UConn with their absurd talent and become #1 over Kansas or if they lose to UNC, UConn, LBSU and Louisville and end up dropping out of the top 25 before conference play. Either scenario is possible.
Dec 5 North Carolina 12:30 PM
Dec 9 @Connecticut 9:30 PM
Dec 12 @Indiana 12:00 PM
Jan 2 Louisville 3:30 PM

Tennessee is at 12.
TN dropped but was not punished too badly for losing to a top 10 team by 1 point on a neutral floor. It should make us all proud that people complain now about 17 point wins. ETSU could beat TN, USC looks horrible this year but I think as a fan if you are satisfied with anything less than winning all the remaining OOC games except Kansas you are setting your standards too low. Memphis gets to play Syracuse and Gonzaga after they play us, but when you watched them lose to Kansas on the road by 3 points it made you feel like Pastner has a very talented bunch that could beat us.
Dec 31 @Memphis 4:00 PM
Jan 10 Kansas 1:30 PM

Florida is at 17
Florida beat Michigan State and the win was poo pooed by many on here, but they also absolutely humiliated the Florida State team that just won their early season tournament and are 27th in the coaches poll. They still have great matchups and could be ranked pretty highly headed into conference play.
Dec 10 Syracuse 9:00 PM
Dec 19 Richmond 6:30 PM
Jan 3 @N.C. State 3:00 PM

Vanderbilt is out of the coaches poll for now. They beat St. Mary's on the road and Arizona without dramatic help from their highly touted freshman. If they lose only one of the remaining games prior to conference play (which I think is likely) they will be ranked in the top 25 again. Their only loss is to a Cincinatti team that is ranked and should remain that way. Here is Vanderbilt's remaining schedule prior to conference play.
Dec 2 Missouri 9:30 PM
Dec 5 DePaul 4:00 PM
Dec 8 @Illinois 8:30 PM
and 6 games they should win all of.

South Carolina has one loss to a Miami team that may end up ranked. During that game they had their best power player in Archie out for most of it. Dominique Archie has a sprained MCL and there is no timetable on his return as far as I know. Still they have opportunities to get some respect still. They beat South Florida in a nice win on the road. They have:
Dec 6 @Clemson 1:00 PM
Dec 16 Richmond 7:00 PM
Dec 30 @Boston College 9:00 PM
Jan 2 Baylor 1:00 PM
along with some teams they should definitely beat badly.
I am sure people will say they have no shot at winning those games, these will probably be the same people who told me that UF was awful.

Georgia is absolutely terrible...

The SEC East has more quality teams this year than the SEC as a whole had last year. 4 teams are almost certainly heading to the NCAA tournament.

The SEC West is dealing with troubles.

Ole Miss looks like an NCAA team. They lost at Villanova, but they will pile up wins against all the teams remaining OOC except for the only big game they have left Dec 23 @West Virginia.

Miss State has looked pretty bad without Sidney and if he is not cleared it is hard to see them doing well in conference play and making the tournament. They have a truly terrible loss to Rider to start the season but their loss to Richmond was by 1 point to a Spiders team that is good. At 4-2 they get:
Dec 5 St. Bonaventure
Dec 10 DePaul 6:30 PM
Dec 12 @UCLA 4:30 PM
And then 6 more until conference play I see them winning. With UCLA being as young as they are, they could potentially win all 3 games. If Sidney is cleared I would expect them to. If they can win 2-3 they could have a less than stellar SEC season (8 wins before the conference tournament) and be at 20 wins and looking at a possible tournament spot.

Alabama just got a big OOC win when they beat Michigan. They do not have a bad loss on their schedule, they lost to Cornel and FSU at home but those are good teams I expect to certainly be in the tournament. They also beat Providence and Baylor on the road. They would enter conference play at a very respectable 10-4 even if they dropped both of the bigger games they have left,Dec 12 Purdue at home and Dec 19 Kansas St. 8:30 PM

LSU is very hard for me to figure out. Drilled by UConn and Arizona State, and watching them play they look so short handed that it seems like they will struggle mightily in the SEC portion of the schedule. They could get 6-7 more wins before SEC play starts against bad teams but it hard to see clear victories in the remaining big games:
Dec 22 @Washington St. 10:00 PM
Dec 29 @Xavier 7:00 PM
Jan 2 Utah 8:00 PM


Arkansas has players hurt and players suspended. They have possible rapists and Pelphrey may not make it all the way through the season if they keep playing like this. OOC left includes Dec 2 @Oklahoma 8:00 PM Dec 30 @Baylor 9:00 PM
Jan 2 UAB 8:00 PM
Jan 5 Texas 7:00 PM
and with the horrible losses they have had to the likes of ETSU, you do not assume that they can beat the lesser teams I left off. They have not only been losing, they have been losing badly.


Auburn is terrible. Claim to fame is losing by 2 to NC State. They may end up being better than Arkansas this year though.

The SEC West could potentially have 3 NCAA tournament teams from the top 3 group but that is very unlikely. They may end up with just 1.

5 or 6 SEC teams make the tournament and we will be a much better conference than the PAC 10, and we may be better at the end of the year than the Big 10 (which I am claiming) but will still lag a good bit behind the Big East, the ACC and perhaps the Big 12. Not bad at all.

"The season is a marathon not a sprint" John Wooden

"Suck it Trebek" Burt Reynolds as played by Will Ferrel.


No way ETSU beats us!! I live in Johnson City and follow ETSU BB and they do not have the talent to beat UT, not this year anyway.
 
#4
#4
Wait a damn minute, you used the marathon quote, but you are in here calling us idiots because we don't buy into Florida or Vandy yet? Really man?
 
#5
#5
Wait a damn minute, you used the marathon quote, but you are in here calling us idiots because we don't buy into Florida or Vandy yet? Really man?

Didn't you know, emain, that making tons of ridiculous predictions after about 5 games in posts about 20 pages long is the true measure of a basketball guru?
 
#6
#6
Didn't you know, emain, that making tons of ridiculous predictions after about 5 games in posts about 20 pages long is the true measure of a basketball guru?

A "Real Men of Genius" type thought is popping in my head as we speak...
 
#10
#10
My, my. The hits just keep on coming.

MHF, you are the gift that keeps on giving.
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#11
#11
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS

1 BIG EAST = 84.56 84.26 ( 1) 16
2 BIG 12 = 83.49 83.77 ( 2) 12
3 ATLANTIC COAST = 83.32 83.67 ( 3) 12
4 SOUTHEASTERN = 81.34 81.06 ( 4) 12
5 BIG TEN = 81.00 80.78 ( 5) 11
6 PACIFIC-10 = 79.47 79.43 ( 6) 10
7 MISSOURI VALLEY = 77.76 77.24 ( 8) 10
8 ATLANTIC 10 = 77.74 77.23 ( 9) 14
9 MOUNTAIN WEST = 77.61 77.56 ( 7) 9
10 CONFERENCE USA = 77.03 77.02 ( 10) 12

Sagarin
USATODAY.com

Ken Pom and RPI are not updated yet.
 
#12
#12
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS

1 BIG EAST = 84.56 84.26 ( 1) 16
2 BIG 12 = 83.49 83.77 ( 2) 12
3 ATLANTIC COAST = 83.32 83.67 ( 3) 12
4 SOUTHEASTERN = 81.34 81.06 ( 4) 12
5 BIG TEN = 81.00 80.78 ( 5) 11
6 PACIFIC-10 = 79.47 79.43 ( 6) 10
7 MISSOURI VALLEY = 77.76 77.24 ( 8) 10
8 ATLANTIC 10 = 77.74 77.23 ( 9) 14
9 MOUNTAIN WEST = 77.61 77.56 ( 7) 9
10 CONFERENCE USA = 77.03 77.02 ( 10) 12

Sagarin
USATODAY.com

Ken Pom and RPI are not updated yet.

3 weeks into the season and the Sagarin ratings have the Big 10 just barely behind the Southeastern Conference?

:eek:hmy:

Wow MHF, you were totally right when you suggested that the SEC would put more than 4 teams in the tournament, and that Florida wasn't just off to another hot start followed by their inevitable collapse, and the SEC is actually the third best conference, and LSU could beat Minnesota.

I don't know why the people on the basketball forum aren't bowing to your superior basketball knowledge. It's like Coach J once said, "The season is a 40 meter dash, not hitchhiking down I-40"
 
#13
#13
3 weeks into the season and the Sagarin ratings have the Big 10 just barely behind the Southeastern Conference?

:eek:hmy:

Wow MHF, you were totally right when you suggested that the SEC would put more than 4 teams in the tournament, and that Florida wasn't just off to another hot start followed by their inevitable collapse, and the SEC is actually the third best conference, and LSU could beat Minnesota.

I don't know why the people on the basketball forum aren't bowing to your superior basketball knowledge. It's like Coach J once said, "The season is a 40 meter dash, not hitchhiking down I-40"

Hmmm....I did say that the SEC would put more than 4 teams in the tournament. I also said that the SEC was better than the Big 10. I said the SEC was the 3rd or 4th best conference. I have not seen nearly enough Big 12 games to decide. And yes Florida is much better than you gave them credit for. I feel like I was wrong about LSU though, having watched their losses it looks like they would be playing Swiper Boy in significant minutes. They had a white walk on out there for a while who I may be able to beat in a sprint post Thanksgiving.

I doubt that the group on here who purport to know lots about basketball will admit they were wrong at all, they are learning from the best. I admit when I am wrong, he refuses to. He is dead wrong on Arizona, they are not the worst Arizona team in 25 years.

It amazes me that people get on here and repeat cliches about how long the season is. In one place I put a reference where you can see all the big OOC games left on the schedule for every SEC team who has a chance to win them. We disagree about how good the conference is, but I think it is a slight disagreement. You do not think that the MVC is better than the SEC and I do not think the SEC is anywhere close to the Big East. After being a big college basketball fan, last year must have been horribly disappointing for you as it was for me given how badly the SEC played. This year is better.

If I think they are possibly the 3rd best league, probably the 4th best, and you think they are possibly the 4th best but possibly the 5th best, is it really that big of a chasm between our predictions?

I think 5 teams make the tournament from the SEC, and 6 seems possible. You think 4. Okay.

Santa Clara is an outlier. There is a body of work that makes up numerous games that tells us that TN has the potential barring injuries to do very well in March and that Georgia barring the death by plane crash of 70 CBB teams has no shot at making the NCAA tournament.
 
#15
#15
3 weeks into the season and the Sagarin ratings have the Big 10 just barely behind the Southeastern Conference?

:eek:hmy:

Wow MHF, you were totally right when you suggested that the SEC would put more than 4 teams in the tournament, and that Florida wasn't just off to another hot start followed by their inevitable collapse, and the SEC is actually the third best conference, and LSU could beat Minnesota.

I don't know why the people on the basketball forum aren't bowing to your superior basketball knowledge. It's like Coach J once said, "The season is a 40 meter dash, not hitchhiking down I-40"
Are you saying LSU wasn't impressive while they were getting stomped by Arizona State? That's crazy talk.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#16
#16
Hmmm....I did say that the SEC would put more than 4 teams in the tournament. I also said that the SEC was better than the Big 10. I said the SEC was the 3rd or 4th best conference. I have not seen nearly enough Big 12 games to decide. And yes Florida is much better than you gave them credit for. I feel like I was wrong about LSU though, having watched their losses it looks like they would be playing Swiper Boy in significant minutes. They had a white walk on out there for a while who I may be able to beat in a sprint post Thanksgiving.

I doubt that the group on here who purport to know lots about basketball will admit they were wrong at all, they are learning from the best. I admit when I am wrong, he refuses to. He is dead wrong on Arizona, they are not the worst Arizona team in 25 years.

It amazes me that people get on here and repeat cliches about how long the season is. In one place I put a reference where you can see all the big OOC games left on the schedule for every SEC team who has a chance to win them. We disagree about how good the conference is, but I think it is a slight disagreement. You do not think that the MVC is better than the SEC and I do not think the SEC is anywhere close to the Big East. After being a big college basketball fan, last year must have been horribly disappointing for you as it was for me given how badly the SEC played. This year is better.

If I think they are possibly the 3rd best league, probably the 4th best, and you think they are possibly the 4th best but possibly the 5th best, is it really that big of a chasm between our predictions?

I think 5 teams make the tournament from the SEC, and 6 seems possible. You think 4. Okay.

Santa Clara is an outlier. There is a body of work that makes up numerous games that tells us that TN has the potential barring injuries to do very well in March and that Georgia barring the death by plane crash of 70 CBB teams has no shot at making the NCAA tournament.

It's not the fact that you make the predictions, its the fact that you gloat about being right because Florida beat an undermanned MSU team, or Vandy beat a crap Arizona team, like it proves anything. I wouldn't even have a problem with that if you didn't seem so eager to bash others that gloat when their predictions come true.
 
#17
#17
Hell, I wish the SEC was better, but they aren't. Come March, that will be evident.
 
#18
#18
Also, I don't think the SEC is possibly the 4th best. It goes

Big East
ACC
Big 10
Big 12

then a pretty decent gap

SEC
A10
Mountain West
PAC10
 
#19
#19
It's not the fact that you make the predictions, its the fact that you gloat about being right because Florida beat an undermanned MSU team, or Vandy beat a crap Arizona team, like it proves anything. I wouldn't even have a problem with that if you didn't seem so eager to bash others that gloat when their predictions come true.
How many straight years has Arizona made the NCAA Tournament? Let's see how things turn out for this year's edition. I'm going to guess they don't fare as well as their predecessors.
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#20
#20
Also, I don't think the SEC is possibly the 4th best. It goes

Big East
ACC
Big 10
Big 12

then a pretty decent gap

SEC
A10
Mountain West
PAC10
The WCC and the Big Sky are furious at not being placed on equal footing with the PAC 10.
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#21
#21
The WCC and the Big Sky are furious at not being placed on equal footing with the PAC 10.
Posted via VolNation Mobile

I flat out forgot the WCC. Is the Big Sky comment sarcasm, or are they really good this year? I haven't seen any of those teams play yet (which is surprising, because I usually catch a few Northern Ariz or Eastern Washington games on one of the FSN channels by now).

Also, the CAA is a potential 2 bid league with about 5 teams fighting for them, right?
 
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#22
#22
Also, I don't think the SEC is possibly the 4th best. It goes

Big East
ACC
Big 10
Big 12

then a pretty decent gap

SEC
A10
Mountain West
PAC10

I think this is correct. I'm sure there are some other mid-major conferences that you could throw into the bottom list, but it definitely seems that the only BCS conference that the SEC is ahead of is the PAC10.
 
#23
#23
Hmmm....I did say that the SEC would put more than 4 teams in the tournament. I also said that the SEC was better than the Big 10. I said the SEC was the 3rd or 4th best conference. I have not seen nearly enough Big 12 games to decide. And yes Florida is much better than you gave them credit for. I feel like I was wrong about LSU though, having watched their losses it looks like they would be playing Swiper Boy in significant minutes. They had a white walk on out there for a while who I may be able to beat in a sprint post Thanksgiving.

I doubt that the group on here who purport to know lots about basketball will admit they were wrong at all, they are learning from the best. I admit when I am wrong, he refuses to. He is dead wrong on Arizona, they are not the worst Arizona team in 25 years.

It amazes me that people get on here and repeat cliches about how long the season is. In one place I put a reference where you can see all the big OOC games left on the schedule for every SEC team who has a chance to win them. We disagree about how good the conference is, but I think it is a slight disagreement. You do not think that the MVC is better than the SEC and I do not think the SEC is anywhere close to the Big East. After being a big college basketball fan, last year must have been horribly disappointing for you as it was for me given how badly the SEC played. This year is better.

If I think they are possibly the 3rd best league, probably the 4th best, and you think they are possibly the 4th best but possibly the 5th best, is it really that big of a chasm between our predictions?

I think 5 teams make the tournament from the SEC, and 6 seems possible. You think 4. Okay.

Santa Clara is an outlier. There is a body of work that makes up numerous games that tells us that TN has the potential barring injuries to do very well in March and that Georgia barring the death by plane crash of 70 CBB teams has no shot at making the NCAA tournament.

This is because it's true. You can't judge teams when they haven't played big OOC games. You also can't judge them solely on winning big OOC games. It's just too early in the season. Could UF be an improved team based on their performance so far? Sure. Could they also fall on their face come SEC play? Absolutely.
 
#24
#24
Hmmm....I did say that the SEC would put more than 4 teams in the tournament. I also said that the SEC was better than the Big 10. I said the SEC was the 3rd or 4th best conference. I have not seen nearly enough Big 12 games to decide. And yes Florida is much better than you gave them credit for. I feel like I was wrong about LSU though, having watched their losses it looks like they would be playing Swiper Boy in significant minutes. They had a white walk on out there for a while who I may be able to beat in a sprint post Thanksgiving.

I doubt that the group on here who purport to know lots about basketball will admit they were wrong at all, they are learning from the best. I admit when I am wrong, he refuses to. He is dead wrong on Arizona, they are not the worst Arizona team in 25 years.

It amazes me that people get on here and repeat cliches about how long the season is. In one place I put a reference where you can see all the big OOC games left on the schedule for every SEC team who has a chance to win them. We disagree about how good the conference is, but I think it is a slight disagreement. You do not think that the MVC is better than the SEC and I do not think the SEC is anywhere close to the Big East. After being a big college basketball fan, last year must have been horribly disappointing for you as it was for me given how badly the SEC played. This year is better.

If I think they are possibly the 3rd best league, probably the 4th best, and you think they are possibly the 4th best but possibly the 5th best, is it really that big of a chasm between our predictions?

I think 5 teams make the tournament from the SEC, and 6 seems possible. You think 4. Okay.

Santa Clara is an outlier. There is a body of work that makes up numerous games that tells us that TN has the potential barring injuries to do very well in March and that Georgia barring the death by plane crash of 70 CBB teams has no shot at making the NCAA tournament.

Oh, you mean like posting John Wooden's quote? You're right; who does that kind of stuff.:no::no:
"The season is a marathon not a sprint" John Wooden
Does this look familiar, MHF?
 
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#25
#25
This is because it's true. You can't judge teams when they haven't played big OOC games. You also can't judge them solely on winning big OOC games. It's just too early in the season. Could UF be an improved team based on their performance so far? Sure. Could they also fall on their face come SEC play? Absolutely.

Surely there is no precedent for you to cite in suggesting that Florida could possibly fall flat on their face this year after a hot start.
 
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