Basketball Rankings + early SEC results (long)

#28
#28
Yea, you need to get on board with MHF. They won one game against a ranked team; they can't possibly not be a top ten team and a lock for the NCAA tournament. You folks try to use facts to dispute MHF. You must know by now that facts don't factor into any of his posts.
 
#29
#29
emainvol said:
Surely there is no precedent for you to cite in suggesting that Florida could possibly fall flat on their face this year after a hot start.
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Yeesh...Kiffinator I put the Wooden quote in to say that I knew the quote well but that I still felt that there was enough of a sample size here to say some things.

Florida has not been 7-0 to start the season since 2005.

I agree with this basketball writer
Florida's clearly a tourney team; Michigan State must get healthy - Seth Davis - SI.com

UF guards will play better.

Last year UF lost to Syracuse and FSU. Did you watch the FSU game? That was not a bad team and they absolutely murdered the Seminoles.

So no there is not precedent for Florida beating the number 2 ranked team and beating another team that may be ranked for much of the season by a bunch in a game that was not close. This type of start for Florida has not happened for years.

Many here think the SEC is 5th best, Vitale agrees with you. I do not. The Big 10 is not as good as many of you think based on watching them play. I cannot say how good or not the Big 12 is, I have only watched Kansas and Texas and Texas A&M and looked at some box scores.
 
#30
#30
emainvol said:
I flat out forgot the WCC. Is the Big Sky comment sarcasm, or are they really good this year? I haven't seen any of those teams play yet (which is surprising, because I usually catch a few Northern Ariz or Eastern Washington games on one of the FSN channels by now).

Also, the CAA is a potential 2 bid league with about 5 teams fighting for them, right?
Click to expand...
Montana has beaten Oregon and played Washington to the buzzer, so the Big Sky comment was only half fascetious. The CAA could get multiple bids, but they need to win games like Northeastern's tilt against Providence.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#31
#31
alumvol08 said:
This is because it's true. You can't judge teams when they haven't played big OOC games. You also can't judge them solely on winning big OOC games. It's just too early in the season. Could UF be an improved team based on their performance so far? Sure. Could they also fall on their face come SEC play? Absolutely.
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These are not facts.

This is not even a prediction. This is saying that a team could do well or could do poorly in conference play before conference play begins....Wow... Thanks for that keen insight.

I think that based on the fact that UF is winning some big OOC games coupled with the fact that you can reasonably predict how they will fare against most of the teams on the schedule you can say that they are an NCAA team.

They should win today against Florida A&M to be 7-0 for the first time since 2005. They should then defeat Jacksonville. They may lose 12/10 to Syracuse. I do not expect them to lose to Richmond but the Spiders are good. Then they beat South Alabama, American, Presbyterian, NC State (another potential loss on the road) and need to win 8 in the SEC to get into the tournament? If they split with Vanderbilt, lose both to TN and both to UK, who else do you think beats UF? Arkansas? Georgia? South Carolina could beat UF this year. Alabama, Ole Miss, Miss State (especially if Sidney is back) then they have to beat Xavier OOC. But Auburn? Give them 2 victories against UGA, 1 v Auburn, 1 v Arkansas, 1 v. SC, 1 v. Vandy and they have to win 2 of the above to get in.
 
#32
#32
More importantly, Will Ferrel didn't play Burt Reynolds he played Trebek. Norm Macdonald was Burt.
 
#33
#33
MikeHamiltonFan said:
Yeesh...Kiffinator I put the Wooden quote in to say that I knew the quote well but that I still felt that there was enough of a sample size here to say some things.

Florida has not been 7-0 to start the season since 2005.

I agree with this basketball writer
Florida's clearly a tourney team; Michigan State must get healthy - Seth Davis - SI.com

UF guards will play better.

Last year UF lost to Syracuse and FSU. Did you watch the FSU game? That was not a bad team and they absolutely murdered the Seminoles.

So no there is not precedent for Florida beating the number 2 ranked team and beating another team that may be ranked for much of the season by a bunch in a game that was not close. This type of start for Florida has not happened for years.

Many here think the SEC is 5th best, Vitale agrees with you. I do not. The Big 10 is not as good as many of you think based on watching them play. I cannot say how good or not the Big 12 is, I have only watched Kansas and Texas and Texas A&M and looked at some box scores.
Click to expand...

Do you really think that Florida could beat a healthy MSU team or could have taken out a banged up MSU team without the refs in their pockets?

If you do, I am going to let you in on something. You are wrong.
 
#34
#34
MikeHamiltonFan said:
These are not facts.

This is not even a prediction. This is saying that a team could do well or could do poorly in conference play before conference play begins....Wow... Thanks for that keen insight.

I think that based on the fact that UF is winning some big OOC games coupled with the fact that you can reasonably predict how they will fare against most of the teams on the schedule you can say that they are an NCAA team.

They should win today against Florida A&M to be 7-0 for the first time since 2005. They should then defeat Jacksonville. They may lose 12/10 to Syracuse. I do not expect them to lose to Richmond but the Spiders are good. Then they beat South Alabama, American, Presbyterian, NC State (another potential loss on the road) and need to win 8 in the SEC to get into the tournament? If they split with Vanderbilt, lose both to TN and both to UK, who else do you think beats UF? Arkansas? Georgia? South Carolina could beat UF this year. Alabama, Ole Miss, Miss State (especially if Sidney is back) then they have to beat Xavier OOC. But Auburn? Give them 2 victories against UGA, 1 v Auburn, 1 v Arkansas, 1 v. SC, 1 v. Vandy and they have to win 2 of the above to get in.
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Syracuse will likely bring them back to earth in a big way.

They will not get into the tournament with a .500 tournament record, of that you can be certain.
 
#36
#36
lylsmorr said:
Anyone care to summarize the original novel for me?
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There was not too much punditry this time.

It was a breakdown of all SEC teams except Auburn and UGA who I just think do not deserve comment. I talked about results so far and then listed dates and opponents for each teams remaining big OOC games.

I cannot believe that I put the wrong actors for the SNL skit. That is really absurd.

Oh lyls the other part you may enjoy is to click the link provided as the season goes on and look at the rankings. Cbs does a nice job putting them all in one place.
 
#37
#37
MikeHamiltonFan said:
There was not too much punditry this time.

It was a breakdown of all SEC teams except Auburn and UGA who I just think do not deserve comment. I talked about results so far and then listed dates and opponents for each teams remaining big OOC games.

I cannot believe that I put the wrong actors for the SNL skit. That is really absurd.

Oh lyls the other part you may enjoy is to click the link provided as the season goes on and look at the rankings. Cbs does a nice job putting them all in one place.
Click to expand...
Gotcha :good!:
 
#38
#38
MikeHamiltonFan said:
First thought is that my favorite place to look at basketball rankings is cbssports.com because it is so easy to switch to various ones. I link the Coaches poll:

NCAA College Basketball Rankings - Coaches Poll - CBSSports.com

Michigan State is now 9 and UNC is 11 and I do not think anyone who knows much about basketball would say that either team even if they are the loser of the game between them this week is out of the running for a number 1 seed.

Kentucky is at 4.
UK has not been punished for close wins against inferior opponents. Long Beach State could beat them, but the hard thing to figure out is if they will beat UNC and UConn with their absurd talent and become #1 over Kansas or if they lose to UNC, UConn, LBSU and Louisville and end up dropping out of the top 25 before conference play. Either scenario is possible.
Dec 5 North Carolina 12:30 PM
Dec 9 @Connecticut 9:30 PM
Dec 12 @Indiana 12:00 PM
Jan 2 Louisville 3:30 PM
Wins all around and Pitino's team is playing like crap. Should be a brutal beat down.

Tennessee is at 12.
TN dropped but was not punished too badly for losing to a top 10 team by 1 point on a neutral floor. It should make us all proud that people complain now about 17 point wins. ETSU could beat TN, USC looks horrible this year but I think as a fan if you are satisfied with anything less than winning all the remaining OOC games except Kansas you are setting your standards too low. Memphis gets to play Syracuse and Gonzaga after they play us, but when you watched them lose to Kansas on the road by 3 points it made you feel like Pastner has a very talented bunch that could beat us.
Dec 31 @Memphis 4:00 PM
Jan 10 Kansas 1:30 PM
Charlotte could be a good game. We are doing pretty well.

Florida is at 17
Florida beat Michigan State and the win was poo pooed by many on here, but they also absolutely humiliated the Florida State team that just won their early season tournament and are 27th in the coaches poll. They still have great matchups and could be ranked pretty highly headed into conference play.
Dec 10 Syracuse 9:00 PM
Dec 19 Richmond 6:30 PM
Jan 3 @N.C. State 3:00 PM
If the only loss Florida has is to a team that is top 3 in terms of impressive wins with Kentucky and Georgetown it is okay. They need to embarass Richmond and NC State to get back up there pretty high in the rankings before the SEC sched.

Vanderbilt is out of the coaches poll for now. They beat St. Mary's on the road and Arizona without dramatic help from their highly touted freshman. If they lose only one of the remaining games prior to conference play (which I think is likely) they will be ranked in the top 25 again. Their only loss is to a Cincinatti team that is ranked and should remain that way. Here is Vanderbilt's remaining schedule prior to conference play.
Dec 2 Missouri 9:30 PM
Dec 5 DePaul 4:00 PM
Dec 8 @Illinois 8:30 PM
and 6 games they should win all of.
I was wrong about Vanderbilt. The Illinois loss was a bad one (and hurt my Big 10 is not as good as SEC contention) but Western KY!!!! AJ Ogilvy may have a career on Broadway musicals for the transgendered after a performance in which he had 1 rebound and the opponent's guard had 9.

South Carolina has one loss to a Miami team that may end up ranked. During that game they had their best power player in Archie out for most of it. Dominique Archie has a sprained MCL and there is no timetable on his return as far as I know. Still they have opportunities to get some respect still. They beat South Florida in a nice win on the road. They have:
Dec 6 @Clemson 1:00 PM
Dec 16 Richmond 7:00 PM
Dec 30 @Boston College 9:00 PM
Jan 2 Baylor 1:00 PM
Well they lost to Clemson. If they win the other 3 they will have a very good RPI heading into conference play.

Georgia is absolutely terrible...

The SEC East has more quality teams this year than the SEC as a whole had last year. 4 teams are almost certainly heading to the NCAA tournament.

The SEC West is dealing with troubles.

Ole Miss looks like an NCAA team. They lost at Villanova, but they will pile up wins against all the teams remaining OOC except for the only big game they have left Dec 23 @West Virginia.

I am really hoping Ole Miss beats Huggins group who have not played ANYONE. I also am predicting that Purdue or Ole Miss will beat WVU.

Miss State has looked pretty bad without Sidney and if he is not cleared it is hard to see them doing well in conference play and making the tournament. They have a truly terrible loss to Rider to start the season but their loss to Richmond was by 1 point to a Spiders team that is good. At 4-2 they get:
Dec 5 St. Bonaventure
Dec 10 DePaul 6:30 PM
Dec 12 @UCLA 4:30 PM

They should beat down UCLA but that team is absolutely awful for UCLA. The stain of Rider is hard to get off, but they could get to the tournament without Sidney which I was not sure was possible before. You almost wonder if he is cleared if he will disrupt the good thing they have going.


Alabama just got a big OOC win when they beat Michigan. They do not have a bad loss on their schedule, they lost to Cornel and FSU at home but those are good teams I expect to certainly be in the tournament. They also beat Providence and Baylor on the road. They would enter conference play at a very respectable 10-4 even if they dropped both of the bigger games they have left,
Dec 12 Purdue at home and
Dec 19 Kansas St. 8:30 PM
Purdue stormed back to beat them, and Kansas State will be a very big game for Alabama if they want to get into the tournament.

LSU is very hard for me to figure out. Drilled by UConn and Arizona State, and watching them play they look so short handed that it seems like they will struggle mightily in the SEC portion of the schedule. They could get 6-7 more wins before SEC play starts against bad teams but it hard to see clear victories in the remaining big games:
Dec 22 @Washington St. 10:00 PM
Dec 29 @Xavier 7:00 PM
Jan 2 Utah 8:00 PM

Still weeks away...I think I was enamored with their name. They do not look good at this point.


Arkansas has players hurt and players suspended. They have possible rapists and Pelphrey may not make it all the way through the season if they keep playing like this. OOC left includes Dec 2 @Oklahoma 8:00 PM Dec 30 @Baylor 9:00 PM
Jan 2 UAB 8:00 PM
Jan 5 Texas 7:00 PM
and with the horrible losses they have had to the likes of ETSU, you do not assume that they can beat the lesser teams I left off. They have not only been losing, they have been losing badly.


Auburn is terrible. Claim to fame is losing by 2 to NC State. They may end up being better than Arkansas this year though.
Click to expand...

There you see that by January 5 the only big OOC left for the conference will be the TN Kansas game. I will update this again with results after that time period. If everything falls just right this conference will have a very nice list of OOC wins and a bunch of teams that look tournament bound if they beat up the crap teams in conference play.

Crap teams in case you have not watched a single game are Arkansas, Auburn and Georgia with LSU probably joining them.
 
#39
#39
South Carolina playing without starters Dominique Archie and Mike Holmes punked Richmond by almost 20. Devan Downey led them in storming away from Richmond at the end of the game, a game which saw the Spiders dominating the Gamecocks in the first half.

Richmond is a good team, and this is a good sign for the coach of South Carolina who just got a raise from 900k to a bit over a million dollars. So far he is doing a much better coaching job than Stallings. South Carolina has no bad losses, just losses to a very talented Miami squad that is 10-1 and a loss to Clemson.

If Richmond can do good things around New Years and beat Boston College 12-30 and Baylor 1-2 this will be a team with a very strong RPI heading into the conference tilt.

Kentucky
Tennessee
Florida
South Carolina
Vanderbilt

all are seriously able to think of the NCAAs at this point. We will know if any of them fall of the list pre conference by January 5th or so.

Ole Miss
Miss. State
and Alabama are also legitimately able to talk about the tournament. Alabama needs to beat Kansas State because piling up wins against UGA, Auburn, LSU and Arkansas is not going to be enough to get into the tournament if you lose to the upper group of teams regularly and do not have any good OOC games.
 
#40
#40
The best thing on Vandy's resume so far is still the St Mary's game. They are going to have to get some big wins in SEC play, and unless they come at home it ain't happening.
 
#41
#41
MikeHamiltonFan said:
South Carolina playing without starters Dominique Archie and Mike Holmes punked Richmond by almost 20. Devan Downey led them in storming away from Richmond at the end of the game, a game which saw the Spiders dominating the Gamecocks in the first half.

Richmond is a good team, and this is a good sign for the coach of South Carolina who just got a raise from 900k to a bit over a million dollars. So far he is doing a much better coaching job than Stallings. South Carolina has no bad losses, just losses to a very talented Miami squad that is 10-1 and a loss to Clemson.

If Richmond can do good things around New Years and beat Boston College 12-30 and Baylor 1-2 this will be a team with a very strong RPI heading into the conference tilt.

Kentucky
Tennessee
Florida
South Carolina
Vanderbilt

all are seriously able to think of the NCAAs at this point. We will know if any of them fall of the list pre conference by January 5th or so.

Ole Miss
Miss. State
and Alabama are also legitimately able to talk about the tournament. Alabama needs to beat Kansas State because piling up wins against UGA, Auburn, LSU and Arkansas is not going to be enough to get into the tournament if you lose to the upper group of teams regularly and do not have any good OOC games.
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You should switch these two teams, IMO. a 6-3 Vandy team without a good win is not better than a 9-1 Ole Miss team who has a really good win against Kansas State.

If I had to put the money down on which team would make the tourney as of NOW, it would be the Rebels.

There ya go, a coveted prediction.
 
#42
#42
Hardwood_fanatic said:
You should switch these two teams, IMO. a 6-3 Vandy team without a good win is not better than a 9-1 Ole Miss team who has a really good win against Kansas State.

If I had to put the money down on which team would make the tourney as of NOW, it would be the Rebels.

There ya go, a coveted prediction.
Click to expand...

Sorry if that was unclear, I was doing East and West. No one else in the conference has any shot of the NCAAs.

I agree with emain about Memorial.

If Vanderbilt is not 11-3 after January 4th then Stallings has failed pretty badly as a coach. They are significantly better on paper than everyone they face until the season schedule.

They are at Bama, SC, TN, KY, GA, Miss, Arkansas and Florida.

I could easily see Vanderbilt winning at Arkansas and at Georgia, the question is whether or not they can win any of the other games. I would put them very close to South Carolina and Bama but would say the other road games should be very tough on them.

Say they win 3 SEC road games for 14-8 outside SEC Memorial games. Florida, Miss State, TN, KY all coming to Nashville, but can they win at least two of those? Theyw would need to get 6 wins in Memorial out of 8 and finish 20-10 with a conference record of 9-7 for me to feel pretty good that they would make the tournament as a low seed.

I do agree with you Hardwood that Ole Miss has a better shot. I also think that there is not a snowflakes chance in hell that 8 teams from the SEC get into the tournament. It is my assertion that at this point in the season, 8 teams have a chance to get in based on their resume without needing to win the SECT.
 
#43
#43
I also think Ole Miss is better than South Carolina.

If Miss State gets Renardo Sidney ever I would put them over South Carolina and Vanderbilt as well. Maybe even Florida, though I will not know that for a little while longer.
 
#44
#44
MikeHamiltonFan said:
Sorry if that was unclear, I was doing East and West. No one else in the conference has any shot of the NCAAs.

I agree with emain about Memorial.

If Vanderbilt is not 11-3 after January 4th then Stallings has failed pretty badly as a coach. They are significantly better on paper than everyone they face until the season schedule.

They are at Bama, SC, TN, KY, GA, Miss, Arkansas and Florida.

I could easily see Vanderbilt winning at Arkansas and at Georgia, the question is whether or not they can win any of the other games. I would put them very close to South Carolina and Bama but would say the other road games should be very tough on them.

Say they win 3 SEC road games for 14-8 outside SEC Memorial games. Florida, Miss State, TN, KY all coming to Nashville, but can they win at least two of those? Theyw would need to get 6 wins in Memorial out of 8 and finish 20-10 with a conference record of 9-7 for me to feel pretty good that they would make the tournament as a low seed.

I do agree with you Hardwood that Ole Miss has a better shot. I also think that there is not a snowflakes chance in hell that 8 teams from the SEC get into the tournament. It is my assertion that at this point in the season, 8 teams have a chance to get in based on their resume without needing to win the SECT.
Click to expand...

Have you ever tried selling this stuff, or better yet getting a spot on late-night ESPN?
 
#45
#45
MikeHamiltonFan said:
5 or 6 SEC teams make the tournament and we will be a much better conference than the PAC 10, and we may be better at the end of the year than the Big 10 (which I am claiming) but will still lag a good bit behind the Big East, the ACC and perhaps the Big 12. Not bad at all.
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Bump.
 
#48
#48
Velo Vol said:
Updated Sagarin NCAA basketball ratings:



But hey, the SEC could still get 7 or 8 teams in the NCAA tournament. :birgits_giggle:
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I still think the most likely scenario is 4, but considering the lack of quality wins in the SEC (and the bad losses that are piling up) one is kidding his/herself if he/she doesn't think that 3 is a real possibility.

by the way where do we all think the league rankings are now? I disagree with Sagarin a little, but it isn't much.

1) Big East
2) Big 12
3) ACC
4) Big 10
5) SEC
6) A10
7) PAC 10

Look about right? Maybe with a little shuffling amongst the top 3?
 
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#49
#49
emainvol said:
I still think the most likely scenario is 4, but considering the lack of quality wins in the SEC (and the bad losses that are piling up) one is kidding his/herself if he/she doesn't think that 3 is a real possibility.

by the way where do we all think the league rankings are now? I disagree with Sagarin a little, but it isn't much.

1) Big East
2) Big 12
3) ACC
4) Big 10
5) SEC
6) A10
7) PAC 10

Look about right? Maybe with a little shuffling amongst the top 3?
Click to expand...

3 is definitely a possibility.

As for your rankings, they are right IMO. I think at this point, the only interchangeable ones are 1 and 2. I think both conferences, though barely, have distanced themselves from the ACC.

But all that can change within the blink of an eye.
 
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