I don't think getting Michelle out is such a bad move from Nicole's point of view. She's hoping:
If they vote out Paul, Victor joins with Michelle and guns for Nicole. But, Nicole would still have 3 votes between them (James, Nicole, Cody, Nat) at worst. Not terrible, but...
Dangerous leaving Paul in, but it could potentially keep Nicole and Cody safe while the others battle next week.
Take out Michelle, it becomes a mexican standoff between couples and Nicole's team appears to be in good graces with the other two. They can just watch them duke it out next week and join the winning team. Or pickup the loser and have a team of 3 that are all competing for HOH.