Big East Bubble Teams

#26
#26
lidderer said:
good point, I was just listing them off as they came to mind, where earlier i had the conf. standings in front of me.

And you're right, I probably would take Louisville over Wake, though it's awfully close. I'd still take clemson over marquette(who I just don't like at all). And while the nova/fsu game would be a toss-up, I'd lean towards fsu.

As for the pitt stuff: that's my big concern really, their O, and though the D is phenomenal, I'd be more tempted to go with UNC in that one, mostly because the heels hold on to the ball really well and pitt just has no clue how to create a turnover, no matter how great they are in every other facet.
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Marquette clearly has a hole in the post, but they have the best backcourt in the country and the NCAA has become a guard centric tourney.
 
#27
#27
BigPapaVol said:
Marquette clearly has a hole in the post, but they have the best backcourt in the country and the NCAA has become a guard centric tourney.
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Marquette's guards handle the ball well, and that could be one way that they'd beat clemson, but the guards don't shoot a high enough portion of outside shots to make up for how well clemson, on O, would take over the rebounding and paint scoring. Plus at the rate the tigers gather opponent fouls, and given marquette's non-existent bench, things could get ugly late in the game on that end.

I'd go clemson, but wouldn't be shocked to see marquette beat them.
 
#28
#28
getyopopcornready said:
The Friars failed miserably in their 4 game stretch that would have def put them in the tourney..

hat who do u think takes the championship this year? UCONN and Louisville don't seem to have that reliable scorer that past championship teams have had and I really cant picture either of them winning it all

I know UNC would be the other obvious choice but at the same time I believe UCONN and Louisville would destroy them..

I really dont see any team that stands out this year that can win the title but I cant help but think that some surprise team will take it this year
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I'll believe a team as intestinally challenged as UNC will win it when I see it. If the tournament started tomorrow, I'd take Louisville. Also, keep an eye on Michigan State, if they ever get healthy.
 
#29
#29
hatvol96 said:
I'll believe a team as intestinally challenged as UNC will win it when I see it. If the tournament started tomorrow, I'd take Louisville. Also, keep an eye on Michigan State, if they ever get healthy.
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The last unc team to win it had some fortitude issues too.
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#30
#30
see this is what worries me about Pitt, they're playing a mediocre team like providence, and they just can't for the life of them force a turnover. We're looking at 9 extra possessions here, and with prov. at 1.1 points per trip, that's 10 points you're throwing away, which I believe is basically the current deficit(pitt: 59; prov: 70)
 
#31
#31
BigPapaVol said:
The last unc team to win it had some fortitude issues too.
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That group never looked up and saw "40-15" in a Final Four game. They also never lost to George Mason in the NCAAs or coughed up a double digit lead in the last seven minutes of an Elite Eight game.
 
#32
#32
hatvol96 said:
That group never looked up and saw "40-15" in a Final Four game. They also never lost to George Mason in the NCAAs or coughed up a double digit lead in the last seven minutes of an Elite Eight game.
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They also had a helluva lot more ability.
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#34
#34
hatvol96 said:
Which is my point. There is no comparison between those guys and this Carolina team.
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That's fair, but squad was loaded with oddballs and near quitters. They were just light years better than everyone else.
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#35
#35
BigPapaVol said:
But you can't take Wake over Marquette. By your list they have to play Louisville where they would be housed. Clemson has to play Marquette or Nova and I don't think they can beat either. Same for FSU.

UNC might handle Pitt, but they weren't prepared to handle a healthy UConn. I don't like them that much against a nasty D playing Pitt team. Pitt's offense might kill them in the end, but I would always default to the elite defensive squad.
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UNC may have some fatal flaws this year, but in the abstract, I'd rather have a team that can't defend over a team that can't score. To me, it seems more likely that a bad defensive team could improve their D by adjusting their intensity, as opposed to a bad Offensive team suddenly learning how to shoot. Of course, I'd prefer to have both, but if i had to pick one, I'd take the better offensive team.
 
#37
#37
hatvol96 said:
I'll believe a team as intestinally challenged as UNC will win it when I see it. If the tournament started tomorrow, I'd take Louisville. Also, keep an eye on Michigan State, if they ever get healthy.
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Louisville just doesnt have a consistent scoring threat.. one night Clark looks like he could dominate and the next you forget that he's even on the court. Edgar Sosa will be the wildcard for them winning it all though, he has shown the most consistent scoring ability thus far for them
 
#38
#38
notverycrucial said:
UNC may have some fatal flaws this year, but in the abstract, I'd rather have a team that can't defend over a team that can't score. To me, it seems more likely that a bad defensive team could improve their D by adjusting their intensity, as opposed to a bad Offensive team suddenly learning how to shoot. Of course, I'd prefer to have both, but if i had to pick one, I'd take the better offensive team.
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The problem there being that all decent teams can score on UNC.
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#41
#41
Utah has the same problem that pitt will face in the tourney: a near complete inability to force turnovers. In every Utah loss this year they turned the ball over more than their opponent.

That tends to catch up with you against elite competition.

Add to that a D that doesn't guard the 3 too well, and your staring at a possible early exit if they face a squad who is both protective and efficient from the perimeter.
 
#42
#42
getyopopcornready said:
Louisville just doesnt have a consistent scoring threat.. one night Clark looks like he could dominate and the next you forget that he's even on the court. Edgar Sosa will be the wildcard for them winning it all though, he has shown the most consistent scoring ability thus far for them
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Exactly. Louisville is wildly inconsistent, though due to their talent-level they can more often suffer through bouts of this and still come away with wins. But when you have to win 6 games in a row against quality competition, something's gonna give during that stretch. I don't like their chances too much, though I could see them winning 2 or 3 games. 4 possibly if all goes right and they seed high.
 
#44
#44
Historically, the big over-achievers in March are the teams with great Defensive Eficiency. So if we're in agreement that this year is up-for-grabs, I'd lean towards a team with excellent D that is not ranked too highly as being a possible surprise winner:

Purdue? Probably far too weak offensively to rely on their D, and they've been inconsistent as well.

West Virginia? With Ruoff steadily improving, this seems possible, though again: the fluctuations from one night to another are hard to look past.

Florida State? There's no more consistent team out there in there performance, but they're highly susceptible to ball-thieving teams, and no standout scorer makes 6 in a row difficult.

Memphis and Gonzaga both fit the bill, but they'll both be highly enough ranked that I don't think there'll be huge surprises if they get far.

Your call of Washington seems a perfect candidate: a solid scoring team, highly efficient on offense, they play at a high pace(another good indicator for teams faring well in march), excel at D, and have a fantastic nucleus of Brockman, Thomas, Dentmon, and a surging Pondexter.

Regardless of their performance against a great ASU team tonight, they certainly stand out as a team to watch for in march
 
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