Big Ten now playing

[05_never_again]

Not as many going forward. We will see where their rankings go but I bet they drop significantly the next couple of years or longer.

Other conferences are always going to have trouble attracting a ton of West Coast kids to leave the West Coast. They will continue to pick off some, just like they always have, but you're never going to have a ton of So Cal kids coming to play in Tuscaloosa, AL or Gainesville, FL, or Athens, GA.

As @butchna said now is the time to pick as many as you can off, particularly while USC is down.

 

[508mikey]

Tired of waiting: Ohio State stars opt out, move on to draft

 

[ABINGDON VOL FAN]

There’s a lot! Most of the core stay. Good opportunity to snatch away more of the top prospects in a short window...but not YEARS worth.

Might be a few years. We will see.

 

[Remy]

Reports are out there saying something about no matter what Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State are not participating this year.no matter what. They'll be the BIG7 or 9 however they figure it.

 

[dobre_shunka]

Reports are out there saying something about no matter what Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State are not participating this year.no matter what. They'll be the BIG7 or 9 however they figure it.

Do the other teams play in the spring then or what? I can't see how them playing this fall can occur with anything less than 11 or 12 teams because then what do the other teams do in the spring. Plus there will have to be an adjustment to the TV revenue if not all the teams are playing especially prominent programs like UM & MSU are out.

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

Reports are out there saying something about no matter what Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State are not participating this year.no matter what. They'll be the BIG7 or 9 however they figure it.

I'm reading or hearing the exact opposite. I think it was Wisconsin's camp that basically said if they all don't play no one is......

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Reports are out there saying something about no matter what Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State are not participating this year.no matter what. They'll be the BIG7 or 9 however they figure it.

What about Illinois?

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Here's what it seems to be at the moment:

• 3 or 4 yeas. Nebraska, Ohio State and Iowa are dead set on playing. Penn State is leaning the same way, but not as strongly as those three.
• 2 to 5 nays. Michigan State and Northwestern are dead set against. Michigan, Rutgers and Maryland are leaning pretty strongly in that direction as well.
• 1 trying to play the role of conference super-glue. Wisconsin is standing firm that everyone plays, or no one plays. Pushing hard for this. It seems they'd like to play, but that desire is secondary to conference unity, for them. Given the two lines above, I think they'll be disappointed, but they're trying. Consequently, look to them de facto joining the "nay" camp in the end. Making it 6 who likely won't play.

Now, if it is true that 9 "yea" votes are required or no one plays, that looks to me like no one is playing this fall from the B10. Because without the 5 hard nays joined by Wisconsin, there are at MOST just 8 yea votes. And that's even if the rest (Illinois, Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota) can be talked into voting 'yea'.

I'd give it about an 80% chance of failing entirely. 19% chance some play and some don't. 1% chance they all play.

And the 1% is only there because one should never say never.

The B10 is a mess.

p.s. There's also a small but not-insignificant chance this hurts the solidarity of the B10 as a conference. Wouldn't necessarily look for it to lose members immediately, but in the next 3-5 years potentially. I'd bet money Nebraska is already quietly considering its options in other places, including going the Independent route. There are no great choices for the Cornhuskers (won't go back to the B12, neither ACC nor SEC fit...PAC is closest to a good option, but the mind sets are completely at odds). But staying in the B10 is turning out not to be a great choice, either. Just saying it's possible.

 

[TrumpedUpVol]

I'd bet money Nebraska is already quietly considering its options in other places, including going the Independent route. There are no great choices for the Cornhuskers

This is perhaps the most interesting aspect of this whole debacle in my mind. It's objectively clear that Big Ten membership isn't all it's cracked up to be for Nebraska; between being the only non-AAU school (regardless of the stock you want to put in AAU membership, the Big Ten certainly cares a lot) and being on completely different planets insofar as athletics participation, Nebraska has to be experiencing a little buyer's remorse right now. I recognize that the Big XII's footing as a conference was incredibly precarious back when Nebraska opted to leave, and it's not in some kind of stellar position presently, but their place in the Big XII was just a natural fit.

The one saving grace for the Big Ten, and it's a big one, is that their television contract pays its members more than any other conference in the country. I get that independence seems idyllic, but Notre Dame makes about half of what Pittsburgh pulls from the ACC and I question if Nebraska has the national footprint a la the Irish (or something comparable to BYU's religious clout) to make going it solo even remotely lucrative. Nebraska pulls the 71st and 107th-largest media markets in the country, so I can't see a conference like the SEC necessarily clamoring for their membership since the school isn't exactly tipping the scales come 2023 when the current television contract expires.

If I were the Big XII, I'd be doing absolutely everything in my power to get Nebraska and three other schools to join in an effort to keep the conference together once the GoR runs out. None of the sensible fits for the conference would be a cash cow, granted, but the Big XII is so narrow in terms of its reach that even mid-size markets are a good addition.

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

From all local reports, Purdue & IU are 110% IN

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

Hearing something final by Friday

 

[05_never_again]

This is perhaps the most interesting aspect of this whole debacle in my mind. It's objectively clear that Big Ten membership isn't all it's cracked up to be for Nebraska; between being the only non-AAU school (regardless of the stock you want to put in AAU membership, the Big Ten certainly cares a lot) and being on completely different planets insofar as athletics participation, Nebraska has to be experiencing a little buyer's remorse right now. I recognize that the Big XII's footing as a conference was incredibly precarious back when Nebraska opted to leave, and it's not in some kind of stellar position presently, but their place in the Big XII was just a natural fit.

The one saving grace for the Big Ten, and it's a big one, is that their television contract pays its members more than any other conference in the country. I get that independence seems idyllic, but Notre Dame makes about half of what Pittsburgh pulls from the ACC and I question if Nebraska has the national footprint a la the Irish (or something comparable to BYU's religious clout) to make going it solo even remotely lucrative. Nebraska pulls the 71st and 107th-largest media markets in the country, so I can't see a conference like the SEC necessarily clamoring for their membership since the school isn't exactly tipping the scales come 2023 when the current television contract expires.

If I were the Big XII, I'd be doing absolutely everything in my power to get Nebraska and three other schools to join in an effort to keep the conference together once the GoR runs out. None of the sensible fits for the conference would be a cash cow, granted, but the Big XII is so narrow in terms of its reach that even mid-size markets are a good addition.

I think both sides to that agreement are having buyer's remorse. I'm not quite sure what the Big Ten gets out of having Nebraska in the conference, and other than a slug of conference revenue (which is a big deal) I'm not sure what Nebraska gets out of being in the Big Ten. That was a shotgun marriage - Nebraska, and rightly so, believed the Big 12 was about to dissolve so they had to join any conference that would take them.

 

[dobre_shunka]

I think the Michigan schools are out because of Whitmer. See seems pretty determined to restrict all she can in Michigan

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I think the Michigan schools are out because of Whitmer. See seems pretty determined to restrict all she can in Michigan

And Michigan State is happily trotting alongside her. They want to be led where she's leading them.

Michigan, on the other hand, is kind of like the kid being pulled out of the candy shop by the arm. Looking regretfully over his shoulder. Not throwing a fit, but wishing he could think of some way to get his hand free so he could run back in.

Could be wrong on that. That's the impression one gets, though.

 

[OldandStillaVol]

If I were the Big XII, I'd be doing absolutely everything in my power to get Nebraska and three other schools to join in an effort to keep the conference together once the GoR runs out. None of the sensible fits for the conference would be a cash cow, granted, but the Big XII is so narrow in terms of its reach that even mid-size markets are a good addition.

Good analysis. I would be very surprised if Nebraska and the Big 12 haven’t already started preliminary discussions for them to rejoin. The pandemic has exposed huge differences between Nebraska leadership and other schools. It makes sense for them to rejoin their old conference. If that happens, I wonder if the Big 12 tells UCF and USF to forget about joining in the future.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Good analysis. I would be very surprised if Nebraska and the Big 12 haven’t already started preliminary discussions for them to rejoin. The pandemic has exposed huge differences between Nebraska leadership and other schools. It makes sense for them to rejoin their old conference. If that happens, I wonder if the Big 12 tells UCF and USF to forget about joining in the future.

Money talks. I don’t think they’re leaving the B1G. Personally I would love to see UCF in the Big XII, it’s obviously not one of the big 3 in the state, but it would be expanding their footprint to a market with a huge alumni base. I’m sure our resident Gator fans could elaborate more on how much those UCF alums are actual fans, but I don’t think it would be a bad move.

 

[05_never_again]

Money talks. I don’t think they’re leaving the B1G. Personally I would love to see UCF in the Big XII, it’s obviously not one of the big 3 in the state, but it would be expanding their footprint to a market with a huge alumni base. I’m sure our resident could elaborate more on how much those UCF alums are actual fans, but I don’t think it would be a bad move.

Also perhaps something @Lawrence Wright could address, but I wonder how many UCF alumni are fans of UF, FSU, Miami, or some other school and would have to be "pulled away" from pulling for a bigger, more accomplished, and more established program. That seems like a tough sell.

It's kind of like if MTSU or UT Chattanooga became really good at football. I would imagine that a lot of MTSU and UTC alumni (like myself) are Tennessee fans, and probably grew up Tennessee fans (most students at those schools are in-state kids). If UTC became really good at football, moved up to FBS and started making noise, etc., I'd think it was cool I suppose but I would have very little emotional investment in it. And I certainly wouldn't attend or watch UTC games over Tennessee games.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Also perhaps something @Lawrence Wright could address, but I wonder how many UCF alumni are fans of UF, FSU, Miami, or some other school and would have to be "pulled away" from pulling for a bigger, more accomplished, and more established program. That seems like a tough sell.

It's kind of like if MTSU or UT Chattanooga became really good at football. I would imagine that a lot of MTSU and UTC alumni (like myself) are Tennessee fans, and probably grew up Tennessee fans (most students at those schools are in-state kids). If UTC became really good at football, moved up to FBS and started making noise, etc., I'd think it was cool I suppose but I would have very little emotional investment in it. And I certainly wouldn't attend or watch UTC games over Tennessee games.

That’s was I trying to say, but did a poor job articulating .

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

I think both sides to that agreement are having buyer's remorse. I'm not quite sure what the Big Ten gets out of having Nebraska in the conference, and other than a slug of conference revenue (which is a big deal) I'm not sure what Nebraska gets out of being in the Big Ten. That was a shotgun marriage - Nebraska, and rightly so, believed the Big 12 was about to dissolve so they had to join any conference that would take them.

I've been to football games at both Purdue and IU when Nebraska has come to town. What the B1G gets out of it is Purdue had I'd say about 15,000 Husker fans at the game and probably about 20,000 Husker fans at IU. Nebraska and Wisconsin are I believe among the top 10 annually in traveling fan bases. Their fans bring a lot of money into the B1G along with football tradition.

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

As far as what Nebraska gets from the B1G it's called B1G 10 Network money.

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

Earlier this month, USA Today reported that the Big Ten’s revenue in 2018 was $759,000,000—up 48% from 2017. The increase was mostly attributable to a new media rights deal the went into effect in 2018. (That same media rights deal is why we now get fewer Big Ten basketball games on ESPN2 and ESPNU, and more on Fox and FS1.)

That $759,000,000 translates to $54,000,000 per school that receives a full share. (Maryland and Rutgers aren’t receiving full shares yet, as they have to buy into the equity of the Big Ten Network and pay back several loans.) By way of comparison, the SEC distributed $43,700,000 to its member schools.

And let me just point out—this is money that schools are getting from the conference. The Big Ten conference negotiates things like media rights deals and bowl tie-ins. It doesn’t include money that each athletic department took in from donations or from merchandise or popcorn sales, or ticket revenue (though for Big Ten football games, there is some limited revenue sharing).

 

[99gator]

Also perhaps something @Lawrence Wright could address, but I wonder how many UCF alumni are fans of UF, FSU, Miami, or some other school and would have to be "pulled away" from pulling for a bigger, more accomplished, and more established program. That seems like a tough sell.

It's kind of like if MTSU or UT Chattanooga became really good at football. I would imagine that a lot of MTSU and UTC alumni (like myself) are Tennessee fans, and probably grew up Tennessee fans (most students at those schools are in-state kids). If UTC became really good at football, moved up to FBS and started making noise, etc., I'd think it was cool I suppose but I would have very little emotional investment in it. And I certainly wouldn't attend or watch UTC games over Tennessee games.

UCF joining a P5 would be more problematic for Miami than FSU or UF.

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

Heard on hot mic, University of Nebraska president says Big Ten announcement comes tonight

 

[UTwild82]

Money talks. I don’t think they’re leaving the B1G. Personally I would love to see UCF in the Big XII, it’s obviously not one of the big 3 in the state, but it would be expanding their footprint to a market with a huge alumni base. I’m sure our resident Gator fans could elaborate more on how much those UCF alums are actual fans, but I don’t think it would be a bad move.

Agree with all of this. It's fun to think about Nebraska back in the B12, but there are so many hard feelings over them leaving. Plus they are making 10s of millions more $$ in the B1G annually. Combine that with the academic side, Nebraska isn't leaving.

As far as UCF, huge enrollment and a new market, the Big XII is crazy not to add them. Especially given they threw geography out the window with West Virginia.

 

[OldandStillaVol]

Money talks. I don’t think they’re leaving the B1G. Personally I would love to see UCF in the Big XII, it’s obviously not one of the big 3 in the state, but it would be expanding their footprint to a market with a huge alumni base. I’m sure our resident Gator fans could elaborate more on how much those UCF alums are actual fans, but I don’t think it would be a bad move.

Getting into the Big12 would be a dream come true for UCF. I don’t know why the Big12 rejected all schools’ applications a couple of years ago. At that time, I thought UCF and Houston would get in.