Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, and the Future of Global Finance

[AM64]

How does one "cash in" in on crypto currency? Do they exchange it for some other form of blockchain technology that you can't spend anywhere? Maybe I don't see the big picture with this currency, but other than trading it how does it make you money or keep you from going broke? As best as I can tell it's no different than trading in a dot com stock 20 years ago.

Yep, how is it not more a Ponzi scheme? If you can unload your appreciated stuff on the market at this time to say buy a house, there's the issue of capital gains, and the fact that homes have similarly appreciated over the same time. It's like selling your house for a big gain, but then realizing a replacement house is going to cost a lot more than it would have, too. And the real kicker - all those transaction fees just went way up too because they are based on the transaction values. It seems like the real profit goes to the usual suspects - the people handling the transactions. Our retirement funds have been looking pretty good lately - on paper, but they aren't anchored on anything except a market bubble when you get right down to it.

 

[n_huffhines]

Has anyone in here ever cashed in on BTC and been paid or do any of you know anyone that has cashed in on BTC?

I cashed out of my initial investment after it nearly quadrupled. Still have the house $ in there. I have only ever held thru an exchange.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Yep, how is it not more a Ponzi scheme? If you can unload your appreciated stuff on the market at this time to say buy a house, there's the issue of capital gains, and the fact that homes have similarly appreciated over the same time. It's like selling your house for a big gain, but then realizing a replacement house is going to cost a lot more than it would have, too. And the real kicker - all those transaction fees just went way up too because they are based on the transaction values. It seems like the real profit goes to the usual suspects - the people handling the transactions. Our retirement funds have been looking pretty good lately - on paper, but they aren't anchored on anything except a market bubble when you get right down to it.

Yep

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Bitcoin has no real uses, and that could be its downfall

 

[Caculator]

Has anyone in here ever cashed in on BTC and been paid or do any of you know anyone that has cashed in on BTC?

I used some of my BC to buy several monster boxes of Silver Eagles

I didn't directly cash out

 

[ClearwaterVol]

Here is a good fairly simple article on BTC vs. other currencies.

Why Do Bitcoins Have Value?

 

[lawgator1]

Bitcoin has no real uses, and that could be its downfall

As skeptical as I remain, I am not sure I agree with this. US currency has no use other than that it is a means of barter. BTC has no value other than that, as well.

It is not accepted as widely, not nearly as widely, as US currency. But the bet people are making is that in this age of technology we are a short distance away from that happening. And since there is a finite (or nearly so) supply of BTC, the thinking is that in time -- perhaps a long time -- the reality will set in for people that ironically BTCs stability will end up being it strength versus government-issued currencies.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

A 33-year-old Dogecoin investor says he became a millionaire in 2 months after Elon Musk inspired him to pile into the meme currency

 

[Tastylicks]

I cashed out of my initial investment after it nearly quadrupled. Still have the house $ in there. I have only ever held thru an exchange.

Samesies. I dated a guy in 2011-2013 and he worked in fin tech and swore by blockchain technologies. He was actually a little arrogant even about it, like "how could people not see this as the next big thing?!?!?!" He convinced me to buy 5 bitcoins which wasn't cheap cause they were like almost $1000 a piece at that time. We broke up. I eventually sold mine in 2017ish when they were valued like $6000 a piece. So it turned into a nice down payment on a house with my new boyfriend lol.

I haven't talked to that ex in years but I am certain he is a millionaire now

oh- and I wish I wasn't so stupid and hung onto the coins cause they are like 50K each right now dammit

 

[theFallGuy]

Did Doggie Coin or one of them drop about half of its value a day or two ago? I don’t watch crypto. I’m still not seeing a reason for the crazy valuations

It hit an all time high of . 45 but corrected back down to . 26-27 range where it's been consolidating for past week. I'm still bullish AF on this. I think it can hit a dollar but beyond that is unlikely.

 

[05_never_again]

Yep, how is it not more a Ponzi scheme? If you can unload your appreciated stuff on the market at this time to say buy a house, there's the issue of capital gains, and the fact that homes have similarly appreciated over the same time. It's like selling your house for a big gain, but then realizing a replacement house is going to cost a lot more than it would have, too. And the real kicker - all those transaction fees just went way up too because they are based on the transaction values. It seems like the real profit goes to the usual suspects - the people handling the transactions. Our retirement funds have been looking pretty good lately - on paper, but they aren't anchored on anything except a market bubble when you get right down to it.

That is the model...right now. And probably for a while with crypto trading. Stocks were the same way until the internet came along.

Well into the 1990s, Wall Street's biggest cash cow was their brokerage business; simply buying and selling of securities on behalf of clients. Stocks ticked in eighths instead of pennies, and the commission paid was a percentage of the value of the trade. The same thing will happen in crypto as the market matures.

 

[VolStrom]

Samesies. I dated a guy in 2011-2013 and he worked in fin tech and swore by blockchain technologies. He was actually a little arrogant even about it, like "how could people not see this as the next big thing?!?!?!" He convinced me to buy 5 bitcoins which wasn't cheap cause they were like almost $1000 a piece at that time. We broke up. I eventually sold mine in 2017ish when they were valued like $6000 a piece. So it turned into a nice down payment on a house with my new boyfriend lol.

I haven't talked to that ex in years but I am certain he is a millionaire now

I guess you're too young to remember all of the dot com companies that went public in the early 2000's and their employees wearing tee-shirts with sayings on them like "I'm a millionaire". I hope to be proven wrong, but history does have a way of repeating itself.

 

[05_never_again]

I guess you're too young to remember all of the dot com companies that went public in the early 2000's and their employees wearing tee-shirts with sayings on them like "I'm a millionaire". I hope to be proven wrong, but history does have a way of repeating itself.

Certain aspects of the financial markets generally, and particularly crypto, absolutely have a 1999/2000 feel to them. I was just a kid then but do somewhat remember it.

However, our current market environment also has this really interesting phenomenon where a pretty good sized group of people are seemingly obsessed with calling the top, calling the next recession, or calling the next financial crisis. The funny thing about that crowd is that they are smarter than the bulls, and they always do end up being right, but markets generally do not peak where there are large numbers of people thinking a top is imminent. Markets usually top when those kinds of people have thrown in the towel.

 

[Tastylicks]

I guess you're too young to remember all of the dot com companies that went public in the early 2000's and their employees wearing tee-shirts with sayings on them like "I'm a millionaire". I hope to be proven wrong, but history does have a way of repeating itself.

the coins themselves could and likely will drop but I think the technology, blockchain, is here to stay for a long time

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

As skeptical as I remain, I am not sure I agree with this. US currency has no use other than that it is a means of barter. BTC has no value other than that, as well.

It is not accepted as widely, not nearly as widely, as US currency. But the bet people are making is that in this age of technology we are a short distance away from that happening. And since there is a finite (or nearly so) supply of BTC, the thinking is that in time -- perhaps a long time -- the reality will set in for people that ironically BTCs stability will end up being it strength versus government-issued currencies.

The US$ is a known quantity as a store of value. Bitcoin will show its value starting with the most flawed economies and work up from there if it is viable. But in order for it to work in chit countries sufficient technology has to be available to the bottom of the economic spectrum. Are 3rd world manure traders and rice farmers going to be online?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I guess you're too young to remember all of the dot com companies that went public in the early 2000's and their employees wearing tee-shirts with sayings on them like "I'm a millionaire". I hope to be proven wrong, but history does have a way of repeating itself.

There was a big fraud element with the dot coms. Websites claimed hyper inflated values for their banner ads. Then they would stick banner ads on each other’s websites as trade and record huge revenues (and huge advertising expense... net zero, but the revenue was skyrocketing). Thing was nobody was paying cash and it eventually unraveled.

 

[VolStrom]

There was a big fraud element with the dot coms. Websites claimed hyper inflated values for their banner ads. Then they would stick banner ads on each other’s websites as trade and record huge revenues (and huge advertising expense... net zero, but the revenue was skyrocketing). Thing was nobody was paying cash and it eventually unraveled.

I'll go along with that, but call me old fashioned, I like to see something have an intrinsic value and I don't see a calculated thing like blockchain having any value. Remember when housing prices went through the roof in the mid 2000's and eventually crashed? I see that happening again soon and with that, the stock market and bitcoins and their like will too.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Samesies. I dated a guy in 2011-2013 and he worked in fin tech and swore by blockchain technologies. He was actually a little arrogant even about it, like "how could people not see this as the next big thing?!?!?!" He convinced me to buy 5 bitcoins which wasn't cheap cause they were like almost $1000 a piece at that time. We broke up. I eventually sold mine in 2017ish when they were valued like $6000 a piece. So it turned into a nice down payment on a house with my new boyfriend lol.

I haven't talked to that ex in years but I am certain he is a millionaire now

oh- and I wish I wasn't so stupid and hung onto the coins cause they are like 50K each right now dammit

I call bulls#!t

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Samesies. I dated a guy in 2011-2013 and he worked in fin tech and swore by blockchain technologies. He was actually a little arrogant even about it, like "how could people not see this as the next big thing?!?!?!" He convinced me to buy 5 bitcoins which wasn't cheap cause they were like almost $1000 a piece at that time. We broke up. I eventually sold mine in 2017ish when they were valued like $6000 a piece. So it turned into a nice down payment on a house with my new boyfriend lol.

I haven't talked to that ex in years but I am certain he is a millionaire now

oh- and I wish I wasn't so stupid and hung onto the coins cause they are like 50K each right now dammit

Yeah, OK.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I'll go along with that, but call me old fashioned, I like to see something have an intrinsic value and I don't see a calculated thing like blockchain having any value. Remember when housing prices went through the roof in the mid 2000's and eventually crashed? I see that happening again soon and with that, the stock market and bitcoins and their like will too.

Real estate shouldn’t crash as much unless interest rates soar. It might also be more RE sector related this time. Residential could hold up as the pandemic has changed habits. People are spending more time at home and investing in their spaces. Office space shouldn’t be in demand as much. Commercial was already beaten up by the Amazon Effect. It will be interesting to see if office space can be repurposed to meet a different demand. Perhaps as housing in CBDs and as mini storage in office parks.

Everything could crash, but this time it’s different from 13/14 years ago as lenders have been more selective.

 

[McDad]

Real estate shouldn’t crash as much unless interest rates soar. It might also be more RE sector related this time. Residential could hold up as the pandemic has changed habits. People are spending more time at home and investing in their spaces. Office space shouldn’t be in demand as much. Commercial was already beaten up by the Amazon Effect. It will be interesting to see if office space can be repurposed to meet a different demand. Perhaps as housing in CBDs and as mini storage in office parks.

Everything could crash, but this time it’s different from 13/14 years ago as lenders have been more selective.

I have almost exactly the opposite expectation. I see an increase in local midsize commercial space and a significant correction in residential prices. I'm looking at a 5-10 year window.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I have almost exactly the opposite expectation. I see an increase in local midsize commercial space and a significant correction in residential prices. I'm looking at a 5-10 year window.

I’m not convinced that residential will crash. But I do think it’s gotten ahead of itself and there’s a boom in improvements to support higher valuations. Significantly higher interest rates would crash prices though.

Commercial is supported by restaurants. Other commercial entertainment venues could do well. But traditional retail is in danger as online continues to grow. Also, Walmart should be back to 24/7 before too long. On the other hand, get out on a Saturday morning and the shoppers are clogging the major roads (but how many of those are heading to Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Best Buy, and Costco? Unfortunately, a growing piece of the routine is looking in person and then finding the best prices online (which the big boxes can survive), IMO small independents will need very loyal clientele to be viable. The small spaces will need creative entrepreneurs. Maybe more service oriented or boutique types can keep those spaces leased.

Sorry to stray off topic. Back to crypto.

 

[Tastylicks]

I call bulls#!t

Ok Karen. Don't care if you do

 

[n_huffhines]

Real estate shouldn’t crash as much unless interest rates soar. It might also be more RE sector related this time. Residential could hold up as the pandemic has changed habits. People are spending more time at home and investing in their spaces. Office space shouldn’t be in demand as much. Commercial was already beaten up by the Amazon Effect. It will be interesting to see if office space can be repurposed to meet a different demand. Perhaps as housing in CBDs and as mini storage in office parks.

Everything could crash, but this time it’s different from 13/14 years ago as lenders have been more selective.

I feel like commercial in large cities is due for an absolute beating. I think a permanent shift towards telecommuting is the best thing for the economy in the long run, but commercial RE will probably have some serious growing pains in the process.

 

[AM64]

There was a big fraud element with the dot coms. Websites claimed hyper inflated values for their banner ads. Then they would stick banner ads on each other’s websites as trade and record huge revenues (and huge advertising expense... net zero, but the revenue was skyrocketing). Thing was nobody was paying cash and it eventually unraveled.

Just recently a Turkish crypto currency founder made off with roughly $2B in investments and holders have no access to their accounts.

Crypto Exchange Founder Disappears with $2 Billion | Tom's Hardware