OrangeCrush18
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If there are no undefeated teams from the BCS conferences, or even just one.... and the Vols beat an undefeated Auburn team in the SECCG... and the Vols are 11-1.... I think the Vols will be in the Orange Bowl.
You have to realize that some formulas take into account different things. The highest and lowest rankings are thrown out before the average is taken. Currently, the Vols are the highest ranked one-loss team in the computers with an average of 4. Road wins, history of program, conference strength, and timing of games are just some of the items used by some of the computers. A road win over an undefeated (and 1 or 2 ranked) Auburn team in the SECCG will be huge boost for the Vols.... and should more than offset any lost ranking position due to playing Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Jeff Anderson-Chris Hester
Rates D1A teams only. Factors in conference strength, which is based on how conference teams do in non-conference play. It also appears to give weight to how a team performs against better opposition. Does not consider game location.
The Vols are currently the highest ranked 1-loss team in this one. Even over California.
Richard Billingsley
Rates D1A teams only. Carries a team's rank over from previous year and values early part of season more highly. Also gives slight emphasis to recent performance. The Vols are currently the highest ranked 1-loss team in this one. Historical emphasis helps the Vols over teams like California.
Wes Colley
Rates D1A teams only, plus provisional 1A teams (like Troy St in 2001). His ratings only consider games between I-A opponents. Uses no prior season data. Puts emphasis on top 25 wins and top 50 wins. The Vols are currently the highest ranked 1-loss team in this one. The Vols have 1 top 25 win and 5 top 50 wins.
Kenneth Massey
Rates all NCAA and NAIA teams. The formula does not consider homefield advantage or game date. The PAC10 is apparently rated very highly in this one. Both California and Arizona (6-2) are rated higher than the Vols. Also remember, the hi and low computer scores are dropped... but a win over an undefeated Auburn might vault the Vols much higher.
Jeff Sagarin
Rates all DI teams, both IA and IAA. Home field advantage is considered. This is the Vols lowest score currently. Sagarin's ratings are similar to Massey, with both considering California and Arizona State's schedule to be very difficult :blink: (both in the top 5). Historically, Sagarin's rating have not been very kind to the Vols.
Peter Wolfe
Rates all NCAA and NAIA teams. Rankings based on actual outcome vs probability of that outcome occuring. Game location is a factor. The Vols and California are essentially tied in this one... with the Vols trailing by 0.002. A win over an undefeated Auburn team would vault the Vols over California, no doubt.
Let's say for argument's sake that both Wisconsin and Oklahoma lose. Tennessee beats an undefeated Auburn team in the SECCG. The final polls might look like this:
1 - USC
2 - California
3 - Tennessee
4 - Utah
However, the computers may look like this:
1 - USC
2 - Tennessee
3 - California
4 - Utah
Then it just comes down to how close in voting points California and Tennessee are. Taking the current point totals for #1, 2, and 3.... Cal would lead in the BCS by .002 points. I would think that Cal and Tennessee would be much closer than in the human polls than Oklahoma and Auburn currently are. So it would be easy to estimate that Tennessee could overcome Cal. But its really too close to call in that scenario. However, I'm still convinced that a win by the Vols over a possible #2 Auburn team in the SECCG would vault the Vols to a solid #2 in at least one poll. If that happens, then the Vols would own a 0.02 advantage over California. However, don't forget, Cal plays a very difficult game on Dec 4th at Southern Miss. [/quote]
I have been thinking about this post all day, we really could make it to the orange bowl! A possiblity is all I need to get fired up, sweet!
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